{"id":392,"date":"2011-05-26T22:20:38","date_gmt":"2011-05-26T19:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=392"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:44:04","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:44:04","slug":"neden-tedirgin-olmaliyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/neden-tedirgin-olmaliyiz\/","title":{"rendered":"Neden tedirgin olmal\u0131y\u0131z?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ya\u015famakta oldu\u011fumuz g\u00fcnler \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 g\u00fcnler. Tablo her t\u00fcrl\u00fc geli\u015fmeye a\u00e7\u0131k. Sa\u011fduyusu olan elinden gelen \u00f6nlemi al\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4148777221\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tedirgin olmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok say\u0131da ge\u00e7erli neden bulunuyor. Bir kez daha alt alta s\u0131ralamakta yarar var bu nedenleri.<br \/>\nBirincisi, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde.<br \/>\n\u0130kincisi, bu y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fleri ile finanse ediliyor.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerinin ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u00fcrmesi beklenmiyor. Y\u00fcksek miktarda k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerine yol a\u00e7an unsurlar ge\u00e7ici: Eninde sonunda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde faizler y\u00fckseltilecek, k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131ndaki parasal geni\u015fleme ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lacak.<br \/>\nD\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinde daha \u00f6nce ya\u015fanan krizleri tetikleyen unsurlardan biri, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin faiz hadlerini y\u00fckseltmeleriydi. Yeni bir faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcreci bu deneyim \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda riskli. Evet, art\u0131k \u00e7o\u011fu y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomisinin durumu eskisi gibi bozuk de\u011fil. Bu deneyim ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ge\u00e7erli diye sorulabilir. Ama bu \u00fclkelerde h\u00e2l\u00e2 baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli zay\u0131fl\u0131klar var. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ancak d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bor\u00e7 bulunabilirse (cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseltilebilirse) sa\u011flanabiliyor. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye gibi baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde h\u00e2l\u00e2 iyi d\u00f6nemlerde b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerini artt\u0131rmak, harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131smak istenilmiyor; bu ek mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n \u00f6nemi anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>H\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi <\/strong><br \/>\nBe\u015fincisi, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 birkredi geni\u015flemesi var. K\u00fcresel krize giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te kredi geni\u015flemesinin \u00f6zellikle gayrimenkul piyasas\u0131nda nas\u0131l balon olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve bu balonun patlamas\u0131n\u0131n krizi nas\u0131l tetikledi\u011fini art\u0131k sa\u011f\u0131r sultan bile i\u015fitti. K\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00e7ok say\u0131da finansal krizin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ise h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi oldu\u011funu yap\u0131lan bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar g\u00f6steriyor. H\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi \u00e7e\u015fitli piyasalarda balon olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Balonun ne zaman patlayaca\u011f\u0131 bilinmiyor. Ama k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerinin aniden durmas\u0131n\u0131n bu patlamaya yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi biliniyor. Bu durumda sadece h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinden nasibini alanlar zor duruma d\u00fc\u015fmekle kalm\u0131yor, kredileri a\u00e7an bankalar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcklerle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze gelebiliyorlar.<br \/>\nAlt\u0131nc\u0131s\u0131, yaz\u0131l\u0131 ve g\u00f6rsel bas\u0131n, rezidans, plaza, her neyse, o yabanc\u0131 k\u00f6kenli adlar\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 reklamlardan ge\u00e7ilmiyor. Daha \u00f6nce bu olgu bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f m\u00fcyd\u00fc?<br \/>\nYedincisi, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ilgin\u00e7 olaylar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin etkilenmemesi beklenemez.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Avrupa Birli\u011fi diki\u015f tutmuyor <\/strong><br \/>\nSekizincisi, Avrupa Birli\u011fi bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc diki\u015f tutmuyor. Birlik bundan sonra eskisi gibi s\u00fcrer mi? \u2018Eskisi gibi s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131k; ama nas\u0131l s\u00fcrecek bilmiyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00fcrecinin bize etkisi nas\u0131l olur? Bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 belli de\u011fil; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ortada \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik var.<br \/>\nDokuzuncusu, cari i\u015flemler sorununu salt parasal \u00f6nlemler ile \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. R\u00fcyamda g\u00f6rsem inanmayaca\u011f\u0131m bir hata bu. Ekonomi politikas\u0131 bu kadar \u00e7aresiz, bu kadar fakir mi?<br \/>\nOnuncusu, maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u2018s\u0131k\u0131\u2019 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor, \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<br \/>\nOysa bilen elbette biliyor; b\u00fct\u00e7e rakamlar\u0131na konjonkt\u00fcrden ar\u0131nd\u0131rarak bakmak gerekir. T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi, \u2018yap\u0131sal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanandan fazlad\u0131r, yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemlerinde ise a\u00e7\u0131klanandan azd\u0131r. K\u0131sacas\u0131, b\u00f6yle bak\u0131nca 2010\u2019da maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla gev\u015fedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir y\u0131lda maliye politikas\u0131 gev\u015fer mi?<br \/>\nYa\u015famakta oldu\u011fumuz g\u00fcnler \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 g\u00fcnler; ilgin\u00e7 olma \u00f6zellikleri, al\u0131\u015fageldi\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlere k\u0131yasla de\u011fi\u015fik olmalar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu tablo her t\u00fcrl\u00fc geli\u015fmeye a\u00e7\u0131k. Sa\u011fduyusu olan elinden gelen \u00f6nlemi al\u0131r, elinden bir \u015fey gelmiyorsa ya da elinden gelse de sa\u011fduyusu yoksa kadere raz\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ya\u015famakta oldu\u011fumuz g\u00fcnler \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 g\u00fcnler. Tablo her t\u00fcrl\u00fc geli\u015fmeye a\u00e7\u0131k. Sa\u011fduyusu olan elinden gelen \u00f6nlemi al\u0131r. Tedirgin olmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok say\u0131da ge\u00e7erli neden bulunuyor.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}