{"id":38949,"date":"2015-03-30T22:38:44","date_gmt":"2015-03-30T19:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=38949"},"modified":"2015-03-30T23:18:40","modified_gmt":"2015-03-30T20:18:40","slug":"iyimser-bir-hesap-hatasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iyimser-bir-hesap-hatasi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130yimser bir hesap hatas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomiyi resmi veriler \u00fczerinden okuman\u0131n ne kadar hatal\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilece\u011fini ve riskin ne denli b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu bir kez daha g\u00f6rd\u00fcm. Hafta sonunda Ekonomi Gazetecileri Derne\u011fi olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz Kartepe Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019nde TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rifat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu bir rapor a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1392052269\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u00e7ok \u00f6nemsedi\u011fim \u00fc\u00e7 projeden bahsetmek istiyorum. Bunlardan birincisi ICC ve TOBB i\u015fbirli\u011fi ile d\u00fcnya KOB\u0130 tarihi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir yol haritas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak olmas\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin burada \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck yapmas\u0131 gurur verici\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer g\u00fczellik ise kad\u0131nlar\u0131n i\u015f hayat\u0131nda etkin olmas\u0131 e\u011filimi\u2026 Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu, ABD\u2019den \u00f6rnek verdi. Baz\u0131 eyaletlerde kad\u0131n giri\u015fimciye pozitif ayr\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u0131srarla bu konuyu g\u00fcndemde tutaca\u011f\u0131na dair iradesini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc de yerli mal\u0131n\u0131n kamu al\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki tercihi ile ilgili elde edilen ba\u015far\u0131. Bug\u00fcne kadar tavsiye niteli\u011findeki kararlardan sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130yi haber ihalelerde yasal bir d\u00fczenlemenin yolda oldu\u011fu\u2026 Art\u0131k ayn\u0131 ihalede yerli ve yabanc\u0131 e\u015fitlenirse, yerli \u00fcr\u00fcn y\u00fczde 15 pahal\u0131 da olsa mecburen tercih edilecek.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar g\u00fczel\u2026 K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmeyecek kadar da \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar. Ama TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n raporda \u0131srarla alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi gibi resmi veriler ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar esas al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f; bunlar\u0131n \u00fczerinden bir projeksiyon olu\u015fturulmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat risk okumas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik resmi rakamlar s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda di\u011fer ba\u015fl\u0131klarda durum i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Asl\u0131nda esas olan bu, ama i\u015fin i\u00e7ine hayat\u0131n ger\u00e7ekleri kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman, ciddi sapmalar\u0131 beraberinde getirirken, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik risklerin de boyutunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Mesela 2015 senesine y\u00f6nelik raporda ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 vard\u0131. Risk olarak FED\u2019in faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131, se\u00e7imler ve jeopolitik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar say\u0131l\u0131rken; AB\u2019nin parasal geni\u015flemesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme ve yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm program\u0131 da f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6steriliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat risk ile f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 ortak tabloda analiz etti\u011finiz zaman a\u00e7mazlar var. Nitekim ben de TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019na bu soruyu y\u00f6nelttim. \u00c7ok basit tan\u0131m\u0131yla FED faiz artt\u0131r\u0131rken, f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinin, gideri dolar, geliri avro olan reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan parite ve bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme sorunu ortaya koydu\u011fu ger\u00e7ek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1362899002\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7imleri \u00e7ok dikkate alm\u0131yorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00fct\u00fcn tablo i\u00e7inde o kadar etkisiz hale geldi ki\u2026 O y\u00fczden sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ne olursa olsun, tek kalemde \u00fczerini \u00e7iziyorum. Fakat petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc avantaj g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, yine TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n verdi\u011fi bir veriyi dikkatle okumam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcteahhitlik hizmetlerimizin y\u00fczde 85\u2019i petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelere\u2026 Bununla birlikte daralan Avrupa piyasas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bu \u00fclkelerde risk olarak at\u0131fta bulunulan jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin, Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 t\u00fcm sorunlu haline ra\u011fmen tek pazar\u0131m\u0131z olarak b\u0131rakmas\u0131 da a\u00e7maz\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc. Peki reel sekt\u00f6r nereye mal satacak? Yan\u0131t\u0131 yok.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen yap\u0131sal reformlara\u2026 TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019na sordum. Sanayi envanteri, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc envanteri, tar\u0131m envanteri olmayan, n\u00fcfusunu bilmeyen ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ncelikli sekt\u00f6rlerini belirlememi\u015f bir \u00fclke nas\u0131l yap\u0131sal reform yapacak?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Sorular\u0131m\u0131n hi\u00e7birine sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yan\u0131t alamad\u0131m. Ama g\u00f6z\u00fcken o ki, sadece anlat\u0131mlardan yola \u00e7\u0131karak reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi yanl\u0131\u015f okudu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ek meselesinden risk\/f\u0131rsat tan\u0131mlamas\u0131na kadar ciddi bir hesap hatas\u0131 var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3995825091\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Peki reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn durumu ne? 2014 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hen\u00fcz gelmemi\u015f. Ama 2013 verileri uyar\u0131yor. Bir \u00f6nceki seneyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131 y\u00fczde 28 art\u0131\u015fla 31 milyar TL, finansman maliyeti y\u00fczde 62 art\u0131\u015fla yine 31 milyar TL olmu\u015f. Yani ba\u015fa ba\u015f\u2026 D\u00f6viz zarar\u0131 74 milyar TL\u2026 Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim rakam 2013 senesine ait. Sadece 2015 performans\u0131 bile bu rakam\u0131n ne oranlara gelebilece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda fikir veriyor. D\u00f6nelim 2013 verilerine\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Net sat\u0131\u015flarda y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f var. 473 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Peki, t\u00fcm bilan\u00e7oda net k\u00e2r ne? Eksi 29 milyar TL\u2026 Yani reel sekt\u00f6r bo\u015fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f. O zaman ger\u00e7eklerle y\u00fczle\u015fme zaman\u0131 gelmedi mi? Bu makyajlanm\u0131\u015f rakamlar ve istatistiklerle gelece\u011fi okumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Soru TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu\u2019na soruldu\u011funda 15 milyon ki\u015fiye istihdam sa\u011flayan 1,5 milyon \u015firketin temsilcisi oldu\u011funu ve eksiklikleri k\u0131rmadan d\u00f6kmeden s\u00f6yleme ad\u0131na hassasiyet ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci bir soru \u015fans\u0131m olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, y\u00f6neltemedim ama belki de bu sunumun ard\u0131ndan TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019na \u015funu sormak gerekiyordu. E\u011fer sadece bir firma sahibi olsayd\u0131; ortadaki bu verilere g\u00fcvenerek yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar m\u0131yd\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bir bak\u0131ma verdi. TOBB eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak kendisine soru sordu\u011fumuzda \u015fahsi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini de s\u00f6yleyebilece\u011fini, ama bulundu\u011fu konumun iyimserli\u011fe katk\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Bence ilmi siyaset a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece d\u00fcr\u00fcst bir a\u00e7\u0131klamayd\u0131. Elbette anlayana\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama ben yine de as\u0131l 1,5 milyon \u015firketin ba\u015f\u0131ndayken do\u011frular\u0131 netlikle payla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ve firmalar\u0131n zarar\u0131na neden olabilecek hayal d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyim. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lan bir konu var. \u0130yimserlik ve k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik\u2026 Hangisi olacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Asl\u0131nda ikisini bir kenara at\u0131p, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olman\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle daha \u00f6nce kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131ssadan hisseyi bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n sonuna koymam gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcm. \u00a0Te\u015fbihte hata olmazm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u0130yimser ile k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ortadaki bardak i\u00e7in kavgaya tutu\u015furlar. Bildik hik\u00e2ye \u00fczerine biri der ki &#8216;yar\u0131s\u0131 dolu, di\u011feri der yar\u0131s\u0131 bo\u015f&#8217;. Bu arada ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i araya girer ve &#8216;bardak \u00e7atlak&#8217; uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapar. Dinlemezler. Doluydu bo\u015ftu kavgas\u0131 devam eder.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i yine uyar\u0131r: \u2018Bardak \u00e7atlak\u2019. Bunun \u00fczerine ikisi birden ger\u00e7ek\u00e7iye y\u00fcklenmeye ba\u015flar. Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i yine tekrarlar: \u2018B\u0131rak\u0131n kavgay\u0131 bardak \u00e7atlak.\u2019\u00a0Kavga s\u00fcr\u00fcp giderken, bardak ortadan ikiye ayr\u0131l\u0131r. Art\u0131k barda\u011f\u0131n ne dolu taraf\u0131 vard\u0131r; ne de bo\u015f taraf\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130yimser ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olana d\u00f6n\u00fcp \u2018Senin y\u00fcz\u00fcnden suyun yar\u0131s\u0131 gitti\u2019 der. K\u00f6t\u00fcmser geri kalmaz: \u2018\u015eimdi barda\u011f\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bo\u015f oldu\u011funu nas\u0131l kan\u0131tlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u2019 diye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ikisini de kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na al\u0131p yan\u0131t verir:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Ne bardaktaki su \u00e7aredir kanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na, ne de bo\u015fluk kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r sorunlar\u0131n. G\u00f6remediyseniz bardaktaki \u00e7atla\u011f\u0131 ve almad\u0131ysan\u0131z \u00f6nlemi, kim ne etsin sizin yar\u0131m bardak suyunuzla, di\u011fer yar\u0131s\u0131nda caka satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bilimi. Ak\u0131l de\u011fil inat ise sorunlara aranan \u00e7arenin adresi, geberin susuzluktan inad\u0131n\u0131za kurban gitti su ile k\u00e2sesi&#8230;\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu sadece bir k\u0131ssadan hisse\u2026 Amac\u0131m kimseyi k\u0131rmak, d\u00f6kmek de\u011fil. Ama \u015funu unutmayal\u0131m. Yakla\u015fan ekonomik kaosta bizim reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcze ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var. Onlar ayakta kalmal\u0131lar. Bunun i\u00e7in de tek bir \u015feye ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 bulunuyor: Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130yimser hesap hatas\u0131na gelince\u2026 Onunla ilgili \u015fu s\u00f6z san\u0131r\u0131m her \u015feyi \u00f6zetliyor: \u201cCehennemin yolu, iyi niyet ta\u015flar\u0131yla d\u00f6\u015felidir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomiyi resmi veriler \u00fczerinden okuman\u0131n ne kadar hatal\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilece\u011fini ve riskin ne denli b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu bir kez daha g\u00f6rd\u00fcm. Hafta sonunda Ekonomi Gazetecileri&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-38949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}