{"id":388,"date":"2011-05-26T22:18:36","date_gmt":"2011-05-26T19:18:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=388"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:44:11","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:44:11","slug":"inis-senaryolari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/inis-senaryolari\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ni\u015f Senaryolar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yumu\u015fak ini\u015f i\u00e7in sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n vergilendirilmesini, orta uzun d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in de yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 devreye sokman\u0131n zaman\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-294639179\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ba\u015fl\u0131kta kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m ini\u015f kelimesi \u0130ngilizcesi landing olan kelimenin \u00e7evirisi. Bu kelime \u0130ngilizcede daha \u00e7ok u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n yere ini\u015fi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. E\u011fer u\u00e7akta bir ar\u0131za yoksa ve e\u011fer pilot yeterince deneyimliyse u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n yere ini\u015fi, i\u00e7indeki yolcular\u0131n neredeyse hissetmeyece\u011fi kadar yumu\u015fak olur. \u0130ngilizcede \u2018soft landing\u2019 denilen bu deyimin T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi yumu\u015fak ini\u015f olarak veriliyor. E\u011fer u\u00e7akta bir ar\u0131za varsa ya da pilot yeterince deneyimli de\u011filse o zaman ini\u015f sars\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. T\u00fcrk\u00e7ede sert ini\u015f denilen bu deyimin \u0130ngilizcesi \u2018hard landing\u2019dir. Sert ini\u015f birden fazla bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bazen u\u00e7aktaki ar\u0131za, tekerleklerin a\u00e7\u0131lmamas\u0131 gibi bir ar\u0131zadan kaynaklan\u0131rsa u\u00e7ak g\u00f6vdesinin \u00fczerine inebilir. Bu, en sert ini\u015f bi\u00e7imlerinden birisidir. Bazen de ar\u0131za \u00e7ok daha ciddi olur ve u\u00e7ak ini\u015f yapamaz. Hi\u00e7bir u\u00e7ak havada kalamayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re bu durumda yere \u00e7ak\u0131lmak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonominin so\u011futulmas\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nA\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir ekonominin gelece\u011fiyle ilgili tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131rken u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n bu \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 ini\u015f bi\u00e7iminden giderek benzetmeler yap\u0131l\u0131r. Her ekonominin bir potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fcc\u00fc vard\u0131r. Bunu genellikle uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7eriz. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm i\u015finde son y\u0131llar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na biraz daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermek do\u011fru olur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomideki de\u011fi\u015fimi son y\u0131llar daha fazla yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bu ortalama oran, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki geleneklere, sanayile\u015fme modeline, t\u00fcketim kal\u0131plar\u0131na, yat\u0131r\u0131m e\u011filimlerine g\u00f6re ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. E\u011fer bunlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilirse o zaman bu potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fczerinde de sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yap\u0131sal reformlar yap\u0131lmadan mevcut sistemle b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 zorlan\u0131rsa ekonomi \u0131s\u0131nmaya ba\u015flar. U\u00e7ak benzetmesine d\u00f6nersek motorlardan birinin veya ikisinin ar\u0131za yapmas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabiliriz.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, yani uzun d\u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5\u2019in biraz alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu oran\u0131 son on y\u0131la a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek d\u00fczeltirsek kabaca y\u00fczde 5.5 dolay\u0131nda bir potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 elde ederiz. Ekonominin bu oran\u0131n alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi halinde potansiyelimizi yeterince kullanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi halinde ise potansiyelimizi zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve bunun sorun yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylememiz yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yumu\u015fak ini\u015f mi sert ini\u015f mi? <\/strong><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.9 oran\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 3.5 puan \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.7 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f bir ekonominin 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, potansiyelini zorlamas\u0131 anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maz. Ne var ki 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki gidi\u015fat da 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndakinden farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Sanayi \u00fcretimi ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 14.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re 6 puan y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme de y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kacak demektir. Bu g\u00f6stergelere ek olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesine ra\u011fmen kredilerdeki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faretleridir. Yani e\u011fer bu e\u011filim, y\u0131l\u0131n kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde de s\u00fcrerse T\u00fcrkiye 2011\u2019de potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 zorlayacak demektir. Bu durumda piyasan\u0131n bir d\u00fczeltme yapmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacakt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fi piyasaya b\u0131rakmadan yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yapmak i\u00e7in kategorik kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir yana b\u0131rakarak k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n ve onun bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olan sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n vergilendirilmesinin, orta uzun d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in de yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 devreye sokman\u0131n zaman\u0131d\u0131r. Aksi takdirde sert ini\u015fle \u00e7ak\u0131lma aras\u0131nda bir tercih yapmaya zorlanabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yumu\u015fak ini\u015f i\u00e7in sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n vergilendirilmesini, orta uzun d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in de yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 devreye sokman\u0131n zaman\u0131d\u0131r. Ba\u015fl\u0131kta kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m ini\u015f kelimesi \u0130ngilizcesi landing olan kelimenin \u00e7evirisi.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}