{"id":3878,"date":"2011-08-08T09:58:04","date_gmt":"2011-08-08T06:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3878"},"modified":"2011-08-08T09:58:05","modified_gmt":"2011-08-08T06:58:05","slug":"haber-herkese-ulasti-panige-gerek-yok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/haber-herkese-ulasti-panige-gerek-yok\/","title":{"rendered":"Haber herkese ula\u015ft\u0131, pani\u011fe gerek yok"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center\" align=\"center\"><span style=\"color: #800000\">Haber herkese ula\u015ft\u0131, pani\u011fe gerek yok<\/span><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bu hafta konuyu \u00e7ok fazla da\u011f\u0131tmadan ana konuya yani S&amp;P\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin kredi notunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 indirime ve ard\u0131ndan AB\u2019deki duruma de\u011finmeyi daha do\u011fru bulduk. \u00d6ncelikle S&amp;P\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin notunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 ola\u011fan bir durum olarak kar\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bunun etkileri de Asya piyasalar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere global \u00f6l\u00e7ekte g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. Fakat bu durum finansal piyasalar i\u00e7in k\u0131yametin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 sorusuna ise \u201cevet\u201d cevab\u0131 vermek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok erken oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. G-7 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00fclkelerin Merkez Bankalar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin alaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler bu krizin etkisinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve hatta atlat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Bunun en \u00f6nemli sebebi de S&amp;P\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan di\u011fer iki kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch ve Moodys\u2019ten \u015fuan i\u00e7in bir not indirimi beklenmiyor olmas\u0131. Nitekim her iki kurum da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda not indirimine gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayarak, ABD\u2019nin kredi notunu AAA olarak onaylam\u0131\u015flard\u0131. \u00a0\u00d6zellikle ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapan \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n ABD i\u00e7in verilmi\u015f en y\u00fcksek kredi notunu referans almas\u0131 gibi bir durum s\u00f6z konusu olaca\u011f\u0131ndan, ABD tahvil ve bono piyasas\u0131ndaki etkilerin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca S&amp;P\u2019nin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesine neden oldu\u011fu dillendirilen hesap hatas\u0131 da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde dikkatle izlenmeli. E\u011fer ABD hazinesi taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen bu yanl\u0131\u015f piyasa taraf\u0131ndan da kabul g\u00f6recek olursa bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten en b\u00fcy\u00fck hasarla \u00e7\u0131kacak olan piyasalar de\u011fil S&amp;P olacakt\u0131r. Bu hesap hatas\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011funa gelince, S&amp;P ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 art\u0131rma s\u00fcrecinde almas\u0131 gereken b\u00fct\u00e7e tasarruf miktar\u0131n\u0131n 4 trilyon dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 konusunda \u0131srarc\u0131 bir tutum sergilemi\u015fti. Fakat bu 4 trilyon dolar rakam\u0131na, hesaplamalarda b\u00fct\u00e7e rakamlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki 2 trilyon dolar\u0131 bulan bir hatan\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu, S&amp;P\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu hata nedeniyle not indirimine gitti\u011fi dile getiriliyor. Not indirimi \u00f6ncesinde ABD hazinesinin S&amp;P\u2019nin bu hatas\u0131n\u0131 fark etmesi \u00fczerine, S&amp;P durumu yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye alm\u0131\u015f ve bu hataya ra\u011fmen al\u0131nan not indirimi karar\u0131 siyasi olarak yorumlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1906069647\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">S\u00fcreci bu \u015fekilde \u00f6zetledikten sonra ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda G-7 maliye bakanlar\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 Asya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ortak bir a\u00e7\u0131klamayla s\u00fcreci kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma ad\u0131na her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nlemi alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdiler. Yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada piyasalarda istikars\u0131z seyri \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ortak \u00f6nlem al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 vurgusu yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bank of Japan dolar almaya devam edece\u011fini, AMB\u2019s\u0131 ise \u0130spanyol ve \u0130talyan tahvilleri sat\u0131n almaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n neticesine gelince piyasalar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7 duyulaca\u011f\u0131 likiditenin sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n beyan edildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bug\u00fcn ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bu a\u00e7\u0131klamada bahsedilen \u201cher t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nlem\u201din neler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi ve piyasalar\u0131n bu \u00f6nlemeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra bir karar verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kredi notu pani\u011finin bug\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle hisse senetleri endekslerinde yank\u0131 buldu\u011funu ve yeni geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu haberin Asya piyasalar\u0131nda ba\u015flamak \u00fczere rakamlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle \u015fu saatten sonra sadece bu haberi baz alarak yap\u0131lacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n da istenilen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 do\u011furma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bu nedenle \u015fuan i\u00e7in yeni geli\u015fmeleri analiz etme zaman\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle AB taraf\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi olu\u015fturan \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya konusunda somut ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 ve al\u0131nacak \u201cher t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nlem\u201d i\u00e7erisinde global ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karacak ad\u0131mlar olursa bug\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnen rakamlar\u0131n al\u0131m i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dahi g\u00f6rebiliriz. Fakat biz yine de g\u00fcn i\u00e7i trade i\u00e7in al\u0131m yap\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsek de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da dile getirdi\u011fimiz gibi orta ve uzun vadeli al\u0131m\u0131 \u015fuan i\u00e7in \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde \u0130MKB 30 ve Dolar\/TL kuru \u00fczerine yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z analizleri sizlere ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 ula\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z. Bu analizlerde al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m i\u00e7in izlenmesi gereken rakamlar\u0131 daha detayl\u0131 analiz edece\u011fiz. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/> <\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nblocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Haber herkese ula\u015ft\u0131, pani\u011fe gerek yok Bu hafta konuyu \u00e7ok fazla da\u011f\u0131tmadan ana konuya yani S&amp;P\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin kredi notunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 indirime ve ard\u0131ndan AB\u2019deki duruma&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}