{"id":38598,"date":"2015-03-03T09:27:50","date_gmt":"2015-03-03T07:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=38598"},"modified":"2015-03-03T09:27:50","modified_gmt":"2015-03-03T07:27:50","slug":"erol-gurcan-bist-100-teknik-analizi-03-03-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-bist-100-teknik-analizi-03-03-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; B\u0130ST 100 Teknik Analizi &#8211; (03.03.2015)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yava\u015flayacak m\u0131? Bug\u00fcn bu soruya alaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yan\u0131t hem piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc hem de TCMB&#8217;nin gelecek d\u00f6nem izleyece\u011fi para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece kritik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1532100057\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/endeks-03.03.2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-38599 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/endeks-03.03.2015.png\" alt=\"endeks - 03.03.2015\" width=\"622\" height=\"458\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/endeks-03.03.2015.png 622w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/endeks-03.03.2015-300x221.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 622px) 100vw, 622px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Haftaya tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131yla ba\u015flayan BIST-100 endeksi 84.700 seviyesindeki k\u0131sa vadeli diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini a\u015famad\u0131 ve haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc yataya yak\u0131n bir kapan\u0131\u015fla 83.946 puandan tamamlad\u0131. Teknik indikat\u00f6rler, endeksin 83.750 \u2013 83.900 b\u00f6lgesinde yeni bir dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmekte. Endeks g\u00fcne, a\u015fbakan Davuto\u011flu\u2019nun, Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Babacan ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n istifalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n da verece\u011fi katk\u0131yla hafif al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flayabilir. Ancak, 10:00\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan \u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde ciddi bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklenmemeli. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak veri moralleri bozmazsa g\u00fcn i\u00e7erisinde 84.700 direnci yeniden test edilebilir. Bu direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda ise endeksin yeni hedefi daha \u00f6nce 3 kez s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 85.500 \u2013 86.500 band\u0131 olacak denebilir. Olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde ise k\u0131sa vadeli en \u00f6nemli destek seviyesi 82.900 \u2013 83.000 b\u00f6lgesinde bulunmakta. 82.900\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flarda zarar-kes yap\u0131lmak \u00fczere mevcut seviyelerde al\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ancak, hafta boyunca Fed yetkililerinden gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ve \u00f6zellikle de Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin de piyasadaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olabilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131.<br \/>\nSon uyar\u0131 olarak, endeksin y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son haftalarda oldu\u011fu gibi bir g\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz kur ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bir kula\u011f\u0131m\u0131z da siyasilerden gelebilecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda kalmaya devam etmeli.<br \/>\n<em><strong>&#8211; Enflasyon\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yava\u015flayabilir\u2026<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\nYurti\u00e7in haftan\u0131n en kritik ekonomi g\u00fcndem olan \u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verileri bug\u00fcn 10:00\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Veri piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ve TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece kritik bir \u00f6neme sahip. 2014 y\u0131lsonunda % 8.17 olan y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE; 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda % 1.10 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 0.93 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle % 7.24\u2019e gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak, \u015eubat ay\u0131 boyunca TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 g\u00f6zlenen de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen hafif art\u0131\u015f, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin \u015eubat ay\u0131nda yava\u015flamas\u0131na neden olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131nlanan \u015eubat ay\u0131 TCMB Beklenti Anketi\u2019ne kat\u0131lan ekonomistler T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u015eubat ay\u0131nda % 0.49 oran\u0131nda; Cnbc-e anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin de % 0.68 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fini beklemesi de bu durumu teyit ediyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE, Verinin TCMB anketine paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda % 7.31\u2019e; Cnbc-e anketine paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda ise % 7.51\u2019e y\u00fckselecek. Bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerinde gelecek bir veri piyasada morallerin bozulmas\u0131n\u0131; alt\u0131nda gelecek bir veri ise al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>&#8211; B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6nc\u00fc verileri 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 1. \u00c7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin olumsuz sinyal \u00fcretmeye devam ediyor.<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\nD\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u015eubat ay\u0131 HSBC PMI\u2019\u0131 49.6 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek \u00fcst \u00fcste 3. Aydaki gerilemesini kaydetti ve son 7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen her veri ekonomide daralmay\u0131 i\u015faret etmekte. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nc\u00fc verilerden de \u00e7ok olumlu sinyaller gelmemi\u015fti. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131 0.5 puan azalarak % 72.8\u2019e gerilerken, Reel Kesim G\u00fcven Endeksi 0.2 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla 103.4 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00f6ylelikle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olan her iki veride Ocak ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi. Piyasalar \u00fczerinde hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok etkisi olmasa da \u015fu ana kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 1. \u00c7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerindeki sinyaller pek i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>&#8211; Fed\u2019in s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme politikas\u0131 yeniden aktif hale geldi\u2026<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\nUzun s\u00fcredir konu\u015fma yapmayan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen ge\u00e7en hafta yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla piyasalara g\u00fcvercin mesajlar verdi. \u00d6zellikle Yellen&#8217;\u0131n &#8220;sab\u0131rl\u0131&#8221; kelimesinin kalmas\u0131 2 toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor demesi Mart ay\u0131ndaki FOMC&#8217;yi daha da \u00f6nemli hale getirdi. E\u011fer Mart&#8217;ta &#8220;sab\u0131rl\u0131&#8221; kelimesi bulunursa bunun anlam\u0131 Haziran ay\u0131nda artmas\u0131 beklenen faiz art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan Temmuz&#8217;a daha da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihtimal olarak Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;e ertelenmesi demek. Ancak, St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bullard\u2019\u0131n da tutanaklarda yer alan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 konusunda &#8220;sab\u0131rl\u0131 olma\u201d ifadesinin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi de kafalar\u0131n kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu. Bu durum tutanaklardan \u201csab\u0131r\u201d ifadesinin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasay\u0131 s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmelerle haz\u0131rlamaya ba\u015flama hamlesi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu nedenle, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fman\u0131n sat\u0131r aralar\u0131nda verece\u011fi mesajlar ile yar\u0131n ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnleri di\u011fer Fed \u00fcyelerinden gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6nem kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>&#8211; Enflasyon verisinden sonra Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD \u0130stihdam Raporu beklenecek.<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\nYurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarda haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli verisi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan \u0130stihdam Raporu olacak. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri, enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri piyasadaki risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bozacak nitelikte de\u011fildi. Ancak, \u00f6nceki ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verilerinde beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi nedeniyle, bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisin de yine beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenmesi Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Erol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yava\u015flayacak m\u0131? Bug\u00fcn bu soruya alaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yan\u0131t hem piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc hem de TCMB&#8217;nin gelecek d\u00f6nem izleyece\u011fi para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece kritik.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769],"class_list":["post-38598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}