{"id":38296,"date":"2015-02-11T21:02:50","date_gmt":"2015-02-11T19:02:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=38296"},"modified":"2015-02-11T23:16:35","modified_gmt":"2015-02-11T21:16:35","slug":"lafi-birak-hesaba-bak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/lafi-birak-hesaba-bak\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Laf\u0131 b\u0131rak; hesaba bak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u00dclkede ekonominin tepe noktas\u0131nda kavga b\u00fcy\u00fcrken; eli ta\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131nda olanlar\u0131 kimse umursam\u0131yor. Bir tarafta \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131y\u0131z\u2019 palavras\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131rken, di\u011fer tarafta faiz mi dolar kuru mu tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-45606617\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015f o kadar \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131r\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ki; iktidara yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu bilinen Sabah Gazetesi, Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 i\u00e7in \u2018Ba\u015f spek\u00fclat\u00f6r\u2019 ifadesini kulland\u0131. Ele\u015ftirmekle, hakaret etmeyi kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bu zihniyetin gerek\u00e7esi ise bu kavgal\u0131 foto\u011fraf\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re \u00e7\u0131kan 40 milyar TL\u2019lik faturas\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u015funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek gerekir ki; bu hesab\u0131 yaparken baz ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018dolar 1,92 olacak\u2019 s\u00f6ylemiyle gelen rezaletin de, \u2018enflasyon 1 puan d\u00fc\u015ferse 4 \u015eubat\u2019ta faiz indirmek i\u00e7in toplant\u0131 yapar\u0131z\u2019 aymazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da sebebi, siyasetin bask\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ok ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyemem. Ama siyasetin akl\u0131 zorlayan, ihtiras dolu ve se\u00e7im odakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faturas\u0131n\u0131 da Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019ya y\u00fcklemek haks\u0131zl\u0131k olur.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Madem dert reel sekt\u00f6r, o zaman \u2018cari a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u2019 m\u00fcjdesini verenlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ba\u015fka bir hesap koyal\u0131m. Biraz rakamlara bo\u011faca\u011f\u0131m ama, l\u00fctfen dikkatlice ve sab\u0131rla okuyup, aldatmac\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2013 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 64,6 milyar dolar. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise yeni a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131: 45,8 milyar dolar. Bunun TL kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2013 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 11 \u015eubat\u2019\u0131nda dolar kuru 2,21 TL. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n maliyeti 142 milyar 766 milyon TL. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 11 \u015eubat\u2019\u0131nda dolar kuru 2,50 TL. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n maliyeti 114 milyar 500 milyon TL. Yani maliyet baz\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen \u00e7ok bir \u015fey yok.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan en b\u00fcy\u00fck etken ne? San\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131 de\u011fil. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki seneye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 18,7 artarak 99,8 milyar dolar oldu. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 15,5 azalarak 84,5 milyar dolar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2499054733\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Azalm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa m\u0131 sevinsek, y\u00fczdesel azalmaya ra\u011fmen bu y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u0131 sorgulasak? Peki reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne? Yani d\u00f6viz gelirleriyle, giderleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2014 Ocak itibariyle finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 172 milyar 800 milyon dolar. 2015 Ocak ay\u0131nda ise pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 179 milyar dolar\u2026\u00a0 Yani ticaret hacmi d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f ama riski b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde giderinin dolar, gelirinin de avro oldu\u011funu dikkate al\u0131rsak ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor? 2014 Ocak ay\u0131nda pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in dolar \/ avro paritesi 1,3751 iken, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 237 milyar 617 milyon avro gelir elde etmesi gerekiyordu. 2015 Ocak\u2019ta ise 1.1303 parite \u00fczerinden bulmas\u0131 gereken rakam 202 milyar 323 milyon avro.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>M\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil ama, diyelim ki i\u00e7 pazarda paray\u0131 bulma derdine gitti. \u0130htiyac\u0131 olan rakam 2014 \u015eubat\u2019ta 381milyar 888 milyon TL. 2015 \u015eubat\u2019ta 447 milyar 500 milyon TL<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4050101874\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Peki soru \u015fu: D\u00fcnya pazar\u0131 daral\u0131rken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha da daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyalini verirken, alternatif pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f, tek pazar\u0131m\u0131z haline gelen Avrupa daralmaya giderken, i\u00e7 pazar da ithalata teslim iken bu paray\u0131 nas\u0131l bulaca\u011f\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte as\u0131l problem burada\u2026 Bu nedenle akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki reel sekt\u00f6r temsilcileri faiz maliyetinin, kur riski maliyeti yan\u0131nda daha \u00f6nemsiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar artt\u0131k\u00e7a, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n maliyeti y\u00fckseliyor. Ve hem dolar baz\u0131nda hem de TL baz\u0131nda artan bu maliyet, daralan pazar ortam\u0131nda finanse edilebilir durumda de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda faiz de, d\u00f6viz kuru da maliyettir. Ama ikisinden birini tercih edecekseniz, d\u00f6viz riskiniz daha \u00f6nceliklidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz y\u00fcksek olursa, en fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmazs\u0131n\u0131z. Ama dolar y\u00fckselirse, azalan gelirlerinize ra\u011fmen, bor\u00e7 \u00f6demenizi nas\u0131l yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n sorusu yan\u0131ts\u0131z kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 dikkate almay\u0131p, birilerinin s\u00f6zc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yaparsan\u0131z, temeline g\u00f6m\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f milyon dolarl\u0131k konutlar al\u0131c\u0131 bulsun diye \u2018faiz d\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u2019 diye ba\u011f\u0131rmaya ba\u015flars\u0131n\u0131z. Neden? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00f6yle istiyor. Birilerinin hesap bilmiyor olmas\u0131n\u0131n faturas\u0131n\u0131, neden reel sekt\u00f6re kesiyorsunuz? Bu kadar m\u0131 akl\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 yitirdiniz?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dclkede ekonominin tepe noktas\u0131nda kavga b\u00fcy\u00fcrken; eli ta\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131nda olanlar\u0131 kimse umursam\u0131yor. Bir tarafta \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131y\u0131z\u2019 palavras\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131rken, di\u011fer tarafta faiz mi dolar kuru mu tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-38296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38296"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38296\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}