{"id":38262,"date":"2015-02-10T10:55:54","date_gmt":"2015-02-10T08:55:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=38262"},"modified":"2015-02-10T10:55:54","modified_gmt":"2015-02-10T08:55:54","slug":"erol-gurcan-bist-100de-tepki-zamani-bist-100-teknik-analizi-10-02-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-bist-100de-tepki-zamani-bist-100-teknik-analizi-10-02-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; BIST-100\u2019de tepki zaman\u0131 &#8211; B\u0130ST 100 Teknik Analizi &#8211;  (10.02.2015)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Son 2 haftada BIST-100 % 10 de\u011fer kaybetti\u2026 D\u00fcn, dolar\/TL 2.50\u2019ye dayand\u0131\u2026 Ocak ay\u0131nda % 6.58\u2019e kadar gerileyen g\u00f6sterge faiz de d\u00fcn % 8.48\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi\u2026<\/strong> <\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1599764443\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sene ba\u015f\u0131ndaki iyimser beklentilerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda bu resmi negatif etkileyebilecek geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131yla BIST-100\u2019de ciddi bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 92.000 seviyelerine dayanan endeks son 2 haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k % 10\u2019a yak\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetti. Endeks d\u00fcn g\u00fcn i\u00e7erisinde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 83.242 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra g\u00fcn\u00fc % 0.49 de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla 84.574 puandan tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Beklentileri negatife \u00e7eviren geli\u015fmeler;<br \/>\n&#8211; Ocak enflasyonun acil PPK\u2019y\u0131 toplamaya yetecek seviyede gelmemesi ve kurda artan tansiyonun TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimi beklentilerinin 24 \u015eubat\u2019a \u00f6telenmesi<br \/>\n&#8211; 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na dair t\u00fcm olumlu senaryolar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n; arz \u2013 talep taraf\u0131ndaki dengesizliklerin etkisiyle y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7evirmesi<br \/>\n&#8211; Avrupa\u2019daki Yunanistan kaynakl\u0131 tedirginliklerin artmas\u0131<br \/>\n&#8211; son olarak da ABD\u2019deki istihdam verilerinin beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde gelmesiyle Fed\u2019in faizleri beklenenden erken art\u0131rabilece\u011fine dair artan endi\u015feler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fc\u00e7lenen faiz indirim beklentileri ve siyasi kanattan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ate\u015fini y\u00fckseltti\u011fi kur taraf\u0131nda; Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin etkisiyle dolar\/TL d\u00fcn 2.50 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayand\u0131. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerinin 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir miktar toparlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye yetecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olmamas\u0131n\u0131n da d\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyatlamalara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 negatif bir etkisinin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Hazine\u2019nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ihaleler sonras\u0131nda 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge tahvilin bile\u015fik faizi de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek % 8.48\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n<p><em>Peki piyasadaki d\u00fczeltme s\u00fcreci tamamland\u0131 m\u0131?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Teknik dinamikler piyasada tepki zaman\u0131n geldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermekte. Buna ek olarak,<br \/>\n&#8211; siyasi kanad\u0131n d\u00fcn TCMB\u2019yi rahatlatacak y\u00f6nde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar,<br \/>\n&#8211; kur taraf\u0131nda tarihi zirveden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen gev\u015feme,<br \/>\n&#8211; petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden dengelenmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131,<br \/>\n&#8211; Fed \u00fcyelerinden faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca istihdamdaki toparlanman\u0131n yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131; zay\u0131f seyreden enflasyona da bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde gelen beyanlar<br \/>\nteknik dinamikleri destekleyen temel gerek\u00e7eler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Kur ve petrol taraf\u0131ndaki tansiyonu yeniden k\u00f6r\u00fckleyecek bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, BIST-100 endeksinde tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu sabah \u00c7in\u2019den gelen enflasyon verileri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in para politikas\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleyici \u00f6nlemlerin artabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentileri art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durumun, \u00c7in\u2019deki geni\u015fleme beklentilerinden ziyade; faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 konusunda \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201culuslararas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler\u201de de odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri bir nebze de azaltm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle endeksteki tepki hareketi s\u00fcrecini destekleyici bir geli\u015fme olabilir.<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-10.02.20151.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-38264 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-10.02.20151.png\" alt=\"endeks-10.02.2015\" width=\"618\" height=\"415\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-10.02.20151.png 618w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-10.02.20151-300x201.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nBIST-100 endeksi bu sabah g\u00fcne 426 puanl\u0131k bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle 85.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ba\u015flad\u0131. Gelen tepkinin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 endeksin 85.500 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunup tutunamayaca\u011f\u0131 belirleyecek diyebiliriz. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunulmas\u0131 durumunda s\u0131ras\u0131yla 86.750 ve 87.700 diren\u00e7leri test edilebilir. Gelen tepkilerin yeterince g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmamas\u0131 ve endeksin k\u0131sa vadeli al\u00e7alan kanaldaki seyrine devam etmesi durumunda ise test edilebilecek destekler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 84.500 \u2013 83.250 \u2013 82.500. Endeksin y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kur ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler en \u00f6nemli belirleyiciler olmaya devam edecek. Orta vadeli iyimser beklentileri bozacak nitelikte bir geli\u015fmenin olmamas\u0131 ve TCMB\u2019nin en az\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerine devam edece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin s\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle; endeks 82.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutundu\u011fu m\u00fcddet\u00e7e mevcut seviyelerin k\u0131sa ve orta vade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygun maliyet yapma seviyeleri oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buradan hareketle, yeni al\u0131m yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tek bir seviyeden ziyade kademelere yaymas\u0131; olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri de al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek ve optimum maliyeti yakalamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Hazine\u2019nin d\u00fczenleyece\u011fi ihalelere gelecek talep miktar\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faizin; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kur ve endeksin g\u00fcn i\u00e7erisindeki seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. \u0130haleye y\u00fcksek bir talep gelmesi halinde endeksteki al\u0131mlar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019den TS\u0130 17:00\u2019da gelecek istihdam ve toptan stok verileri kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olabilece\u011finden takip edilmeli.<br \/>\nErol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1003800108\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son 2 haftada BIST-100 % 10 de\u011fer kaybetti\u2026 D\u00fcn, dolar\/TL 2.50\u2019ye dayand\u0131\u2026 Ocak ay\u0131nda % 6.58\u2019e kadar gerileyen g\u00f6sterge faiz de d\u00fcn % 8.48\u2019e kadar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769],"class_list":["post-38262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38262"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38262\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}