{"id":38141,"date":"2015-02-02T16:18:10","date_gmt":"2015-02-02T14:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=38141"},"modified":"2015-02-02T16:18:10","modified_gmt":"2015-02-02T14:18:10","slug":"erol-gurcan-bist-100-teknik-analizi-02-02-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-bist-100-teknik-analizi-02-02-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; B\u0130ST 100 Teknik Analizi &#8211; (02.02.2015)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u015eimdi piyasan\u0131n akl\u0131nda 2 tane soru var: T\u00dcFE acil PPK getirecek mi? Acil PPK olursa faiz ne kadar inecek?<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-02.02.2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-38142 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-02.02.2015.png\" alt=\"endeks - 02.02.2015\" width=\"543\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-02.02.2015.png 543w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/endeks-02.02.2015-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 543px) 100vw, 543px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nFOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan beklenildi\u011fi gibi bir s\u00fcrpriz \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle, ge\u00e7en hafta piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcndemini TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 1. Enflasyon Raporu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar belirledi. Enflasyondaki d\u00fczelmenin Ocak ay\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131; yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisine g\u00f6re 4 \u015eubat \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cAcil PPK\u201d ile faiz indirebilecekleri mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda artan faiz indirimi beklentilerinin dolar\/TL\u2019yi tarihi rekor seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda BIST-100 endeksinin 88.000 deste\u011fine kadar geriled\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen \u201cyak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6zlenen piyasa hareketlerinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz indirim s\u00fcrecinin temkin d\u00fczeyiyle uyumlu de\u011fil\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 faiz indirim beklentileri bir nebze de olsun azalm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 200 saatlik hareketli ortalama seviyesi ve y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihten g\u00f6r\u00fclen son zirveye kadar \u00e7izilen Fibonacci D\u00fczelme seviyelerinin % 23.6 d\u00fczeyinin kesi\u015fimi olan 88.000\u2019den destek alan endeks y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa yeniden yukar\u0131 \u00e7evirdi ve 88.700 seviyesini yeniden destek edindi. Yar\u0131nki T\u00dcFE verisi ve TCMB karar\u0131na kadar takip edilmesi gereken destek seviyeleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla 88.700 ve 88.000 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde ise 90.000-91.500 diren\u00e7leri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmakta.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2595307072\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131lki \u201cy\u0131lsonu dolar\/TL 1.92 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatay\u0131 unutmam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu varsayarak; Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam temelleri oldu\u011funu ve Ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon verisinin \u015eubat PPK\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekmeye yetecek d\u00fczeyde gelmesini kuvvetle muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Ancak, fiyat istikrar\u0131yla birlikte finansal istikrar\u0131 da g\u00f6zeten TCMB\u2019nin kur taraf\u0131ndaki son geli\u015fmeleri ve faiz indirimi konusunda artan siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n kredibilitesini verebilece\u011fi zarar\u0131 da dikkate alarak 25 &#8211; 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirime gidece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 75 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir indirim gelmesi dolar\/TL\u2019yi yeni rekor seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yarak endeksteki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bu hafta ne konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z?<\/strong><br \/>\nSon 2 haftal\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te Merkez Bankalar\u0131ndan (\u00f6zellikle TCMB, ECB, Fed) gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalara y\u00f6nelik beklentiler fiyatland\u0131. Yeni haftada yurt i\u00e7indeki en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddesi yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon verisi ve sonras\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin alaca\u011f\u0131 aksiyon olacak. Son g\u00fcnlerde faiz indirimine y\u00f6nelik artan beklentiler dolar\/TL\u2019nin yeni tarihi zirve seviyelere y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7arken; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilin bile\u015fik faizin (g\u00f6sterge faiz) yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.5 y\u0131l sonra yeniden % 7\u2019nin alt\u0131na gerilemesini sa\u011flad\u0131. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kur taraf\u0131nda artan tansiyon BIST-100\u2019\u00fcn ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 ekside tamamlamas\u0131na neden oldu. Gelecek hafta, piyasan\u0131n seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan TCMB\u2019den gelecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131n, kur taraf\u0131ndaki seyrin ve a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n etkili olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarda ise ABD taraf\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m konusunda kritik \u00f6neme sahip olan \u00fccret ve istihdama ili\u015fkin veriler; Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve Asya\u2019dan gelecek PMI verileri ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 takip edilecek.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Endekse bir de dolar baz\u0131nda bakal\u0131m\u2026<\/strong><br \/>\nGe\u00e7en hafta endeksin y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00fczerinde dolar\/TL\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler olduk\u00e7a belirleyici oldu. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana endeksin y\u0131l i\u00e7i hedef seviyeleri tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken de dolar baz\u0131nda BIST-100 endeksinin 5 dolar (cent) seviyesine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayan beklentiler dile getirildi. Bu konuya Ya\u015far Erdin\u00e7 Hocam da ge\u00e7en haftaki bir yaz\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011finmi\u015fti (Ya\u015far Hocam\u0131n yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fim yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 okumak i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/2015\/01\/27\/borsadaki-dinamikler-ve-son-durum\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z.<\/a>). Kur ve endeks aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde endekse bir de dolar baz\u0131nda bakal\u0131m istedim. Kald\u0131 ki, Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019daki yabanc\u0131 takas oran\u0131n\u0131n % 65 seviyelerinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 dikkate al\u0131rsak; endekse zaman zaman dolar penceresinden bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n da yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte Dolar bazl\u0131 G\u00fcnl\u00fck BIST-100 endeks grafi\u011fi yer almakta. Mavi renkli \u00e7izgiler Endeksin tarihi zirvesinden 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye \u00e7izilen Fibonacci D\u00fczelme seviylerini g\u00f6stermektedir. Grafikten de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere yakla\u015f\u0131k 3.6 dolara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen % 38.2\u2019deki Fibonacci seviyesi son derece kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme sahip. Endeksin 5 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc seviyeden bu yana g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye ise yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 2.7 dolar seviyesinde. \u00d6zetle, kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n notumuzu \u201cYat\u0131r\u0131m Yap\u0131labilir\u201d seviyeye y\u00fckseltmesinden bu yana endeks dolar baz\u0131nda 2.7 \u2013 5 dolar band\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-baz\u0131nda-endeks-02.02.2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-38143 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-baz\u0131nda-endeks-02.02.2015.png\" alt=\"dolar baz\u0131nda endeks - 02.02.2015\" width=\"543\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-baz\u0131nda-endeks-02.02.2015.png 543w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-baz\u0131nda-endeks-02.02.2015-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 543px) 100vw, 543px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nKur taraf\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u00e7ok radikal bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a, dolar\/TL\u2019nin orta vadede a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak 2.20 \u2013 2.55 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaymam\u0131z\u0131n \u00e7ok yanl\u0131\u015f bir beklenti olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda dolara baz\u0131nda endeksin 2.70 \u2013 5.00 dolar aras\u0131nda; dolar\/TL\u2019nin de 2.20 \u2013 2.55 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 durumunda TL bazl\u0131 BIST-100 endeksinin, yani bizim bildi\u011fimiz BIST-100\u2019\u00fcn alabilece\u011fi de\u011ferleri bir tablo haline getirdim. Tablo i\u00e7erisindeki mavi ile boyanm\u0131\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm, mevcut ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir geli\u015fme olmamas\u0131 halinde, hem dolar\/TL\u2019de hem de dolar bazl\u0131 endeks taraf\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm seviyelerdeyken endeksin alaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferleri g\u00f6stermekte. \u00d6rne\u011fin, dolar bazl\u0131 endeks 4.05 dolar, dolar\/TL 2.30 seviyesinde iken BIST-100 endeksi 95.175 de\u011ferini alacakt\u0131r. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 an itibariyle, dolar baz\u0131nda endeks 3.69, kur 2.42 ve BIST-100 endeksi de 89.430 seviyesinde bulunmaktayd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-38145 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-endeks-kur-tablo-02.02.2015.png\" alt=\"dolar endeks kur tablo - 02.02.2015\" width=\"604\" height=\"161\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-endeks-kur-tablo-02.02.2015.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/dolar-endeks-kur-tablo-02.02.2015-300x80.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\">Erol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1418322664\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eimdi piyasan\u0131n akl\u0131nda 2 tane soru var: T\u00dcFE acil PPK getirecek mi? Acil PPK olursa faiz ne kadar inecek? FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan beklenildi\u011fi gibi bir s\u00fcrpriz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,752,753],"class_list":["post-38141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-dolar-tl-yorumu","tag-dolar-yorumlari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38141\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}