{"id":38007,"date":"2015-01-25T23:21:06","date_gmt":"2015-01-25T21:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=38007"},"modified":"2015-01-25T23:29:43","modified_gmt":"2015-01-25T21:29:43","slug":"tl-tek-basina-yeter-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tl-tek-basina-yeter-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; TL tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeter mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u0130ran bundan bir ka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce duyurdu\u011fu dolar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in, farkl\u0131 para birimleriyle ticarete y\u00f6nelmek ad\u0131na ad\u0131m att\u0131. \u00dclkelerin yerel paralar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lacak ticaret \u0130ran i\u00e7in de, gelece\u011fin ticari yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 ad\u0131na da \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1634925021\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim benzer ad\u0131mlar\u0131 Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019den de g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar rezervleri bulunan bu \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7i\u015fi yapmak, hem ticaretlerini rahatlatmas\u0131, hem de dolar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmalar\u0131 ad\u0131na kritik ve farkl\u0131 etkileri olacak bir karar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Peki meseleye bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan bakal\u0131m. Neticede bu \u00fclkeler bizimle de TL \u00fczerinden ticaret yapmay\u0131 isteyecektir. Nitekim kapsam alan\u0131nda da bulunuyoruz. \u015eimdi bu unsuru \u00fclkeye mucize diye sunmaya kalk\u0131\u015fanlar olacak.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ad\u0131m\u0131, \u00f6nemsesem de tek ba\u015f\u0131na yetmeyece\u011fini pe\u015finen s\u00f6yleyeyim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu karar\u0131 alan \u00fclkelerin ortak \u00f6zelliklerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ya hammadde ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ya da dolar rezervlerinin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye bu yap\u0131lanman\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda m\u0131 kalmal\u0131d\u0131r? Kesinlikle hay\u0131r. Fakat tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ortaya koymuyor. Zira e\u011fer sizin pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z dolar baz\u0131nda 400 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015fsa, oynama alan\u0131n\u0131z yeterli de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Daha pratik hayattan \u00f6rnek verecek olursak. \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol ya da Rusya\u2019dan do\u011falgaz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. E\u011fer bu anla\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7inde TL baz\u0131nda fiyat sabitlemesi s\u00f6z konusu de\u011filse, sonu\u00e7 vermez. Yani siz bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kur ortalamas\u0131ndan yine 1 birim i\u00e7in 2.34 \u00fczerinden dolar\u0131 TL\u2019ye \u00e7evirir \u00f6deme yapars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tam tersinden meseleye bakal\u0131m. Siz ruble ya da \u0130ran riyali ile fiyat sabitleyerek ihracat yapabilir misiniz? Girdi maliyetlerinizin tamam\u0131 dolara endeksli iken b\u00f6yle bir risk al\u0131nabilir mi? Ne yaz\u0131k ki hay\u0131r. O zaman da sadece kurun o g\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferinden \u00f6deme yapmak ve fiyat vermek pratik hayata yans\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat meseleye orta ve uzun vadede bakacak olursak, d\u00fcnya ticaretinde g\u00fc\u00e7lerin dev\u015firilmesi ad\u0131na yap\u0131lan bir hareketin i\u00e7inde olmak faydal\u0131. Yani gelece\u011fin ekonomisinde nab\u0131z, uza\u011f\u0131yla yak\u0131n\u0131yla do\u011fuda atacaksa, bizim de bug\u00fcnden i\u00e7inde olmam\u0131zda fayda var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-931896160\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Elbette ayn\u0131 durum ikili ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. \u00dcye olmadan dahil olunan G\u00fcmr\u00fck Birli\u011fi gibi bir a\u00e7maz\u0131m\u0131z ortadayken, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle nas\u0131l avantajl\u0131 anla\u015fmalar yapabilece\u011fiz? Peki daralan d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etme \u015fans\u0131m\u0131z var m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn halen ihra\u00e7 pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 45 ile a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor ve bizim alternatif pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z ya yan\u0131yor ya da bizimle problemli. O zaman ak\u0131ll\u0131ca yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n devreye girmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Orta ve uzun vadede bu ad\u0131mlara dahil olmak \u00f6nemli. Ama k\u0131sa vadede bunu \u2018mucize\u2019 diye satarlarsa inanmay\u0131n. K\u0131sa vadede etkisi ancak TL\u2019den alt\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r at\u0131lmas\u0131 kadar \u00f6nemlidir. Yani alt\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r at\u0131l\u0131nca nas\u0131l zengin olmad\u0131ysan\u0131z, riyal ya da ruble ile ticaret yap\u0131nca da ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zemezsiniz. Bu kritik bir ekopolitik konu. L\u00fctfen siyasete kurban etmeyin.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-835372530\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ran bundan bir ka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce duyurdu\u011fu dolar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in, farkl\u0131 para birimleriyle ticarete y\u00f6nelmek ad\u0131na ad\u0131m att\u0131. \u00dclkelerin yerel paralar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lacak ticaret&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-38007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38007"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38007\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}