{"id":37965,"date":"2015-01-22T14:10:05","date_gmt":"2015-01-22T12:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=37965"},"modified":"2015-01-22T14:43:04","modified_gmt":"2015-01-22T12:43:04","slug":"erol-gurcan-ecb-toplanti-beklentileri-22-01-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-ecb-toplanti-beklentileri-22-01-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; ECB Toplant\u0131 Beklentileri &#8211; (22.01.2015)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Herkes susacak Draghi konu\u015facak&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4008866951\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) karar\u0131yla birlikte en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan konulardan biri de Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bug\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi toplant\u0131da. ECB&#8217;nin devlet tahvili al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme paketi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak bu paketin i\u00e7eri\u011fine, y\u00f6ntemine ve zamanlamas\u0131na dair bir\u00e7ok farkl\u0131 iddia bulunuyor, di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle her kafadan farkl\u0131 bir ses \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nce ortaya at\u0131lan ilk iddialarda paketin 500 milyar Euro d\u00fczeyinde olaca\u011f\u0131 iddia edilmi\u015fti. Ancak, ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a 600 milyar Euro, 750 milyar Euro ve 1 trilyon Euro gibi rakamlar da konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026 D\u00fcn, Wall Street Journal gazetesinde yer alan ve konu hakk\u0131nda bilgi sahibi kaynaklara dayand\u0131r\u0131lan bir haberde 2 ECB yetkilisinin tasla\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ECB&#8217;nin en az bir y\u0131l s\u00fcreyle ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar euro tahvil al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bir nicel gev\u015feme plan\u0131 teklifinde bulundu\u011fu bildirildi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg ajans\u0131nda yer alan di\u011fer bir haberde ise ayda 50 milyar euroluk al\u0131mlar\u0131n devlet tahvillerine odaklanaca\u011f\u0131, ancak Mart ay\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2016 sonuna kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi belirtildi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi Ewald Nowotny&#8217;den \u00f6nemli bir a\u00e7\u0131klama geldi. Nowotny, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir politika toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu kadar heyecanlanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, piyasada bu kez ECB\u2019nin beklenenden daha muhafazakar bir paket a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden oldu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Hi\u00e7 kimse ger\u00e7ek detaylar\u0131 bilmiyor, bu y\u00fczden yap\u0131lan yorumlar piyasay\u0131 tedirgin edip \u00f6zellikle parite taraf\u0131nda sert hareketlere yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>ECB\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131 bug\u00fcn 14:45\u2019te duyurulacak; ard\u0131ndan 15:30\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda paketin detaylar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lacak. Yani, 15:30\u2019da herkes susacak; ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi konu\u015facak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2389449772\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><em>A\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen paketin bir\u00e7ok detay\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u201c\u015feytan ayr\u0131nt\u0131da gizli\u201d olacak. Peki, piyasa hangi ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara bakacak? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Piyasada fiyatlanan beklentinin 500 ile 600 milyar Euro aras\u0131 bir paket a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak paketin bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 endekste sert sat\u0131\u015flara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi gibi; \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 durumunda ise al\u0131mlar h\u0131zlanabilir (\u00f6zellikle 750 milyar eurodan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131 halinde). Ancak, piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sadece paketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yeterli olmayacak. Bunun yan\u0131nda olas\u0131 tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ne zaman ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi de kritik bir \u00f6neme sahip. Genel beklenti, itibaren a\u00e7\u0131klanacak yeni program\u0131n Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayarak 2016 sonuna kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p>Hat\u0131rlanacak olursa, ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131da ECB bilan\u00e7osunu 3 trilyon Euroya y\u00fckseltme vaadinde bulunmu\u015ftu. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikten de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, ECB bilan\u00e7osu k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 2 trilyon Euro taban\u0131na yap\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f; daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan parasal geni\u015fleme program\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131yla bir miktar toparlanarak 2.2 trilyon Euro seviyesine y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Ancak, bu program\u0131n etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle ECB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn ekstra bir \u00f6nlem almas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6zetle, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak paketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve s\u00fcresinin ECB bilan\u00e7osunu yeniden 3 trilyon euroya \u00e7ekebilecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Paketin, ECB bilan\u00e7osunu 3 trilyon Euro\u2019ya y\u00fckseltemeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, endekste sert sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-37966 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/ecb-bilan\u00e7o.png\" alt=\"ecb bilan\u00e7o\" width=\"469\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/ecb-bilan\u00e7o.png 469w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/ecb-bilan\u00e7o-300x193.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 469px) 100vw, 469px\" \/><br \/>\nAncak, i\u015f bununla da bitmeyecek. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak paketin hangi tahvilleri kapsayaca\u011f\u0131, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kim olaca\u011f\u0131, al\u0131m baz\u0131 ve kriterlerinin nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 da son derece kritik \u00f6neme sahip.<\/p>\n<p>Paketin, devlet tahvillerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u015firket tahvillerini de kapsamas\u0131 piyasada olumlu bir alg\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<br \/>\nRisk payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konusu, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrprizi olabilir. Bloomberg anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin % 69\u2019u ECB\u2019nin her bir \u00fcyenin sermayedeki oran\u0131na g\u00f6re tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ve riskin bu oranda payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ancak, bir Alman gazetesinde yer alan haberde Draghi\u2019nin Alman meslekta\u015flar\u0131na; her \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca kendi \u00fclkesinin tahvillerini almas\u0131 ve riskin en az\u0131ndan % 50\u2019si ECB\u2019yle payla\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki plan\u0131n\u0131 kabul ettirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edildi. \u0130ddia edildi\u011fi gibi riskin ECB ve \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir karar gelmesi piyasan\u0131n moralini y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fi gibi; riskin sadece \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcstlenilmesi de k\u00f6t\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz olabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-321600310\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Al\u0131mlar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 da s\u00fcrprize gebe olan bir ba\u015fka konu. Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mla ilgili 3 ihtimalin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u0130lk olarak, kredi notu yaln\u0131zca AAA olan devlet tahvillerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131na karar verilmesi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Alman tahvillerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011finden piyasa i\u00e7in negatif bir s\u00fcrpriz olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u0130kinci ihtimal, yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyedeki devlet tahvillerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131. Bu ihtimalin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi daha piyasada daha muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Her iki ihtimalde Yunanistan ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s tahvillerinin paket d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bir miktar negatif alg\u0131 yaratabilir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve olabilecek en olumlu ihtimal ise herhangi bir kredi notu s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmadan, tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131laya oran\u0131na g\u00f6re yap\u0131lmas\u0131. Bu durum a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak sorunlu \u00fclkelere fayda sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131ndan piyasa i\u00e7in olabilecek en olumlu s\u00fcrpriz olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasan\u0131n detaylar\u0131n\u0131 merak etti\u011fi bir di\u011fer konuda al\u0131m yap\u0131lacak devlet tahvillerinin vadesi. Niceliksel geni\u015flemedeki temel hedeflerden birinin de \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek oldu\u011fundan, ECB\u2019nin program kapsam\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvillerinde al\u0131m yapmas\u0131 en etkin yol olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Daha k\u0131sa vadeli tahvillere ba\u011fl\u0131 niceliksel geni\u015flemeye gidilmesi piyasan\u0131n moralini bozabilir.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi piyasan\u0131n merak etti\u011fi \u00e7ok fazla detay var. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011finin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflerine, kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve beklenti y\u00f6netimine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamak laz\u0131m. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, t\u00fcm bu detaylardan ziyade as\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan Draghi\u2019nin konu\u015fmas\u0131yla piyasaya g\u00fcven verip piyasay\u0131 ikna edebilmesi. Ben ECB\u2019nin \u015fu ana kadar radikal bir aksiyon almalayarak biraz ge\u00e7 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Draghi\u2019nin bug\u00fcn en az\u0131ndan piyasan\u0131n beklentilerini kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 (hatta piyasan\u0131n beklentilerinden bir miktar daha olumlu olmas\u0131n\u0131) bekliyorum. Draghi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratma gibi bir l\u00fcks\u00fcn\u00fcn kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Erol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkes susacak Draghi konu\u015facak&#8230; Son g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) karar\u0131yla birlikte en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan konulardan biri de Avrupa Merkez&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769],"class_list":["post-37965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37965\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}