{"id":37951,"date":"2015-01-21T22:20:43","date_gmt":"2015-01-21T20:20:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=37951"},"modified":"2015-01-21T23:10:57","modified_gmt":"2015-01-21T21:10:57","slug":"draghinin-ne-dedigi-onemli-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/draghinin-ne-dedigi-onemli-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Draghi&#8217;nin ne dedi\u011fi \u00f6nemli mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin para ile imtihan\u0131n\u0131n en zorlu etab\u0131na geldik. Bir tarafta i\u00e7te ve d\u0131\u015ftaki faizler sonras\u0131 kurlarda beklenen geli\u015fme, \u00f6te tarafta nakit para ihtiyac\u0131\u2026 Soka\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck resminde insanlar i\u015fveren de olsa, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan da olsa ge\u00e7im derdinde, plazalarda bir grup ki\u015fi de ad\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m dedikleri para oyununun g\u00f6lgesinde\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1556357154\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat de\u011fi\u015fmeyen bir ger\u00e7ek var ki; iliklerine kadar kumar ekonomisine bat\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclke, finans\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki her t\u00fcrl\u00fc geli\u015fmenin direkt muhatab\u0131\u2026 \u0130\u015fte bu nedenle bir grup finans\u00e7\u0131 halen hal\u0131 alt\u0131nda kir s\u00fcp\u00fcrmeye, beklenti y\u00f6netmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hakk\u0131n\u0131 yemeyelim\u2026 Bu uzmanl\u0131k alan\u0131n\u0131n onurluca hakk\u0131n\u0131 veren, do\u011frular\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen isimleri de var. Fakat ne yaz\u0131k ki iki elin parmaklar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7miyor. Geneli her g\u00fcn bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131, g\u00fcn gibi a\u015fik\u00e2r beklentileri ortaya at\u0131p, sak\u0131z gibi \u00e7i\u011fniyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi paran\u0131n ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019den kesilece\u011fine kanaat getirince, i\u00e7eride s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan paralar\u0131n\u0131 ya da m\u00fc\u015fterilerinin yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 riski sat\u0131p ka\u00e7\u0131rman\u0131n yolunu ar\u0131yorlar. Sa\u011folsun ekonomi bilimini k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmseyen ekonomi kurmaylar\u0131m\u0131z da ekmeklerine ya\u011f s\u00fcr\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Art\u0131k b\u00fct\u00fcn beklentiler t\u00fckendi. Fakat her g\u00fcn \u0131srarla yeni bir hik\u00e2ye yazmaktan b\u0131kmad\u0131lar. Son \u00f6yk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama\u2026 \u015eu an ekranlarda, k\u00f6\u015felerde sak\u0131z gibi \u00e7i\u011fneniyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>22 Ocak tarihine ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek Y\u00f6netim Konseyi Toplant\u0131s\u0131\u2019ndan ne karar \u00e7\u0131kacak? \u015eimdi meselenin birka\u00e7 boyutunu tekrar hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Ne karar \u00e7\u0131karsa \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n; ne rakam zikredilirse zikredilsin parasal bollu\u011fun oldu\u011funu d\u00f6nem bitti. \u00dcstelik Avrupa, bu konuda ABD\u2019den daha muhafazak\u00e2rd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Beklenen 550 milyar avroluk bir ekonomik program. \u00dcst\u00fcn\u00fc de a\u00e7\u0131klama ihtimalleri var. Yani T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi, AMB risk sat\u0131n als\u0131n isteniyor\u2026 Herkes de Draghi\u2019nin ne diyece\u011fine bak\u0131yor. Oysa yine herkes biliyor ki, AB s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde bu konuda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u2018olur\u2019 vermedi\u011fi her a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00e7\u00f6pt\u00fcr. Ama bunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n bilmesi gerekmiyor; onlar bilsin yeter.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ne yan\u0131t verece\u011fini, eski performanslardan okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsak, bu beklentinin iyimserli\u011fi uzun s\u00fcrmez. Bu durumda da bizim ihracat\u0131m\u0131zdan turizmimize, bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n sendikasyonundan fon hareketlerine kadar bir\u00e7ok olumsuzluk ya\u015far\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-256241510\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama diyelim ki Almanya da gemileri yak\u0131p, bir \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131k yapt\u0131 ve \u2018olur\u2019 dedi. \u0130\u015fte o zaman da s\u00f6ylendi\u011finin aksine durum bizim i\u00e7in parlak de\u011fil. \u00d6yle bir para en k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00fclke ilan edilen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelmez. Bu bir sorun.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat gelirse daha b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun\u2026 \u0130yimserlik y\u00f6netimi \u015firazesinden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. Hatta Goldman Sachs uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n bir tezi daha da korkutucu. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir mi bilinmez ama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri dolar ile avronun y\u0131lsonunda neredeyse e\u015fitlenece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki para biriminin aras\u0131ndaki mesele\u2026 Peki ya biz? D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsenize dolar TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f, avro yerlerde s\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Gideri dolar, geliri avro olan da sanayiciniz var. Hadi hesap edin ka\u00e7 fabrika kap\u0131ya kilit vurur?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: Meseleyi do\u011fru tart\u0131\u015f\u0131p; ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 do\u011fru koyal\u0131m. Birincisi Draghi\u2019nin ne s\u00f6yledi\u011finin, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ne karar ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zerre kadar \u00f6nemi yok. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ne dedi\u011fi \u00f6nemli\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3447576028\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi Almanya evet dese bile sonu\u00e7 ne olursa olsun parasal geni\u015fleme devri bitmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir para gelmeyecek. Aynen Rusya meselesinde oldu\u011fu gibi yeni bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kap\u0131da\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc bu paran\u0131n gelmesi de, ihracat\u00e7\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n finansal yap\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle bizim i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 bir felaket senaryosu\u2026 D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc y\u0131llarca kumar ekonomisine mahk\u00fbm ya\u015far; bunu da Millet\u2019e ekonomi diye yutturursan\u0131z; b\u00f6yle bug\u00fcn ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bilemezsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Be\u015fincisi finans piyasalar\u0131nda oyuncu olanlar\u0131n ne dedi\u011fine bakmay\u0131n. Onlar sizi de\u011fil; m\u00fc\u015fterilerinin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zetmekle y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fc. Alt\u0131nc\u0131 ve sonuncusu da ekonomiyi okumak i\u00e7in, olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bir alanda, olmayan paran\u0131zla, kimin ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 takip etmeyin. Sizin ekonominiz cebinizde ve n\u00fcfusun genelinin cebi alarm veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u0131kar\u0131n formalar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131; ger\u00e7ekle y\u00fczle\u015fin. Ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabul edelim ki, s\u0131ra ger\u00e7ekten faturay\u0131 \u00fcstlenip; \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm konu\u015fmaya gelsin.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin para ile imtihan\u0131n\u0131n en zorlu etab\u0131na geldik. Bir tarafta i\u00e7te ve d\u0131\u015ftaki faizler sonras\u0131 kurlarda beklenen geli\u015fme, \u00f6te tarafta nakit para ihtiyac\u0131\u2026 Soka\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-37951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37951\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}