{"id":37853,"date":"2015-01-15T15:00:36","date_gmt":"2015-01-15T13:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=37853"},"modified":"2015-01-15T15:00:36","modified_gmt":"2015-01-15T13:00:36","slug":"erol-gurcan-bist-100-teknik-analizi-15-01-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-bist-100-teknik-analizi-15-01-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; B\u0130ST 100 Teknik Analizi &#8211; (15.01.2015)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Piyasa ABD T\u00dcFE verilerini bekliyor.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2291566903\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u0130\u015fsizlik beklentilerden hafif olumlu<\/strong><br \/>\nY\u0131llar itibariyle, 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckselen bir e\u011filim sergileyen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda % 10.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek \u015eubat 2011&#8217;den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verinin \u00f6nemini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki Ekim d\u00f6nemi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerini ve y\u0131l i\u00e7i i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 trendlerini baz alarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hesaplamalara g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verinin Ekim ay\u0131nda % 10.5 ile yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorduk. A\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekim ay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 verisi beklentilerden bir miktar daha olumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ancak piyasaya etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 son \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc verilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flamay\u0131 i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Kas\u0131m ve Aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda bir miktar artabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/i\u015fsizlik.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-37855 \" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/i\u015fsizlik.png\" alt=\"i\u015fsizlik\" width=\"654\" height=\"271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/i\u015fsizlik.png 729w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/i\u015fsizlik-300x124.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 654px) 100vw, 654px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedeflerin alt\u0131nda<\/strong><br \/>\nMaliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7enin 9.9 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fini; 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 tamam\u0131nda ise b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 22.7 milyar lira olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e giderleri 444.8 milyar TL; b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirleri ise 425.8 milyar TL oldu. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 tamam\u0131nda, \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmelerde 7.8 milyar TL\u2019lik gelir b\u00fct\u00e7eye katk\u0131 yapt\u0131. \u015eim\u015fek, akaryak\u0131t \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn vergi gelirlerini etkiledi\u011fini ifade ederek; petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 60 dolar seviyelerinde kalmas\u0131 halinde KDV gelirlerinin 2.7 milyar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fini belirtti. B\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinin korunaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken \u015eim\u015fek, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinin fazla verebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulundu. 2015 \u2013 2017 Orta Vadeli Program\u0131na g\u00f6re 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda B\u00fct\u00e7e A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 21 milyar TL seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>2013 y\u0131l sonunda 18.5 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k veren b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinin 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 33.3 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k vermesi hedeflenmi\u015fti. Ekim ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan Orta Vadeli Program&#8217;da ise (2015-2017) bu rakam 8.8 milyar lira azalt\u0131larak, 24.4 milyar liraya revize edildi. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlar; 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7enin sene ba\u015f\u0131ndaki hedefe g\u00f6re 10.6 milyar TL; revize hedef g\u00f6re ise 1.7 milyar TL daha olumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Piyasa, yar\u0131n ABD\u2019den gelecek T\u00dcFE ve Sanayi \u00dcretimi verilerini bekliyor.<\/strong><br \/>\nBIST-100 endeksi \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ba\u015flamas\u0131yla 300 puan y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterse de daha sonra kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 geri ve gelen sat\u0131\u015flarla 87.500 seviyesindeki deste\u011fe kadar geri \u00e7ekilerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta olu\u015fan bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurdu. Piyasan\u0131n yar\u0131n ABD\u2019den gelecek enflasyon ve sanayi \u00fcretimini beklemekte olmas\u0131 nedeniyle; endeksin g\u00fcn\u00fc geri kalan\u0131nda 87.000 \u2013 88.500 band\u0131nda hareket etmesini bekliyoruz. 87.000 deste\u011finin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece g\u00fcn i\u00e7erisinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ancak, bu seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda sat\u0131\u015flar sertle\u015febilir ve endeks s\u0131ras\u0131yla 86.400 \u2013 85.900 \u2013 85.500 desteklerini test edebilir. \u00d6nemli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00f6zlenebilmesi ve 90.000 seviyelerinin ihtimal dahiline girebilmesi i\u00e7in 88.700 direncinin hacimli bir \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek gerekli.<\/p>\n<p>15:30\u2019da ABD\u2019den gelecek \u00dcFE (Beklenti: &#8211; % 0.4)ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (Beklenti: 295 bin) piyasada k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli dalgalanmalar yaratabilir. Ancak, ekstra bir geli\u015fme olmazsa, ABD\u2019de yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan T\u00dcFE ve Sanayi \u00dcretimi rakamlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar (\u00f6zellikle T\u00dcFE) sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/endeks.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-37854 \" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/endeks.png\" alt=\"endeks\" width=\"630\" height=\"351\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/endeks.png 573w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/endeks-300x167.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yar\u0131n ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE verisi piyasalar\u0131n seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece kritik.<\/strong><br \/>\nGe\u00e7en hafta ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verilerinin detay\u0131nda ortalama saatlik \u00fccretlerin beklentilerin aksine % 0.2 oran\u0131nda darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlendi (Beklenti: + % 0.2). Buna ek olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrin de etkisiyle yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verinin % 0.4 oran\u0131nda daralma g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. E\u011fer \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe uyum sa\u011flamazsa o zaman petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn enflasyon \u00fczerinde \u2013Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen&#8217;\u0131n da toplant\u0131da vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere- &#8220;ge\u00e7ici&#8221; olaca\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. E\u011fer, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da man\u015fet enflasyona paralel olarak ayl\u0131k bazda negatif gelirse; FED&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 Haziran&#8217;da yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na \u00f6telenebilece\u011finden, yeni hikaye fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flayabilir ve bu hikaye BIST-100 endeksini 90.000 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<br \/>\n&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Erol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-733091180\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasa ABD T\u00dcFE verilerini bekliyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik beklentilerden hafif olumlu Y\u0131llar itibariyle, 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckselen bir e\u011filim sergileyen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda % 10.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1442,769,1441,1352,1438],"class_list":["post-37853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-abd-enflasyon","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-butce-turkiye","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-turkiye-butcesi-ne-kadar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}