{"id":377,"date":"2011-05-25T22:21:48","date_gmt":"2011-05-25T19:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=377"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:44:41","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:44:41","slug":"erken-donus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erken-donus\/","title":{"rendered":"Erken d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fark ettiniz mi bilmiyorum. Son bir hafta i\u00e7inde ekonomide hava de\u011fi\u015fti gibi. Nereye baksan\u0131z risk vurgusu yapan\u00a0 bir de\u011ferlendirme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ekonomide karamsarlar ve ihtiyatl\u0131 olanlar hep vard\u0131r. Son g\u00fcnlerde durum bunun \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti sanki. Aylard\u0131r iyimser de\u011ferlendirmelerde israr edenlerin dahi en az\u0131ndan daha ihtiyatl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelere kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na tan\u0131k oluyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1224586306\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu durum ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylara k\u0131yasla ekonomi alg\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u015e\u00f6yle bir an\u0131msay\u0131n. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki performans\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok olumlu oldu\u011fu gibi bir alg\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Bu performans\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta zorlanan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden oldu\u011fu kadar\u00a0 kriz sonras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fik sorunlar ya\u015fayan yeni geli\u015fen piyasalardan da ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyordu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu de\u011ferlendirmeler dayanaks\u0131z da de\u011fildi. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin performans\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6vg\u00fcye de\u011fer bulanlar bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini bir ka\u00e7 noktaya dayand\u0131ryordu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksekti. Kamu dengesinde ciddi bir bozulma olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131, olan kadar\u0131 da h\u0131zla d\u00fczeliyordu. Finans- banka alan\u0131 kriz s\u00fcrecinde sa\u011flam ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te\u00a0 enflasyon h\u0131zla gerilemi\u015f ve olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeye inmi\u015fti. CDS priminin de i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi, ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fck\u00a0 risk alg\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda durum olduk\u00e7a iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Bir \u00e7oklar\u0131 gibi ben de\u00a0 bu tablonun\u00a0 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu, belli bir vadede ko\u015fullar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini, iktisadi iklimde ve alg\u0131larda bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordum. Genel olarak bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na,\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla sonbahara sarkaca\u011f\u0131 ve yumu\u015fak bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 halinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyordu. Son g\u00fcnlerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u015faretleri durumun farkl\u0131 \u015fekilde geli\u015febilece\u011fini ima ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fck olumlu beklentilerin ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyimserlik dozu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir ku\u015fkusuz. Ancak, bu t\u00fcr bir tart\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7ok olumlu alg\u0131n\u0131n neden beklenenden erken ve daha sert bi\u00e7imde bozulma e\u011filimine girdi\u011fini irdelemenin daha yararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Alg\u0131 bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131ran baz\u0131 i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u0130\u00e7erideki \u00fc\u00e7\u00a0 geli\u015fme bu kategoride\u00a0 yer al\u0131yor. Bunlardan birisi cari a\u00e7\u0131kta ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan beklenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve hacimli bozulmad\u0131r. Y\u0131l\u0131n daha birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 20 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha \u00e7abuk tersine d\u00f6nmesine neden olmu\u015ftur.\u00a0 H\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenen para politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin\u00a0 beklenen zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda net bir sonu\u00e7 \u00fcretememesi\u00a0 olumlu alg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden \u00f6nce bozulmas\u0131nda rol oynayan ikinci bir nedendir. Bu t\u00fcr h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulmalar\u0131n beklenenden daha sert\u00a0 baz\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin se\u00e7imden hemen sonra devreye sokulaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin faizin y\u00fckseltilece\u011fi gibi bir beklenti do\u011furdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu da alg\u0131 ve beklenti bozan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir nedendir.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3903443344\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride bu geli\u015fmeler olurken iktisadi iklimin ters d\u00f6nmesine belki daha da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc katk\u0131 yapan baz\u0131 d\u0131\u015f olaylar\u0131n devreye girdi\u011fi malum. Bizde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn beklenenden \u00f6nce devreye girmesini etkileyen en \u00f6nemli d\u0131\u015f olay son g\u00fcnlerde k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen bozulma ve riskten ka\u00e7ma e\u011filimi oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu genel etkinin\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye d\u00f6n\u00fck risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zaten bozmu\u015f olan iki b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmenin\u00a0 \u00fcst\u00fcne geldi\u011fini de unutmamak gerekiyor. AB ve MENA b\u00f6lgelerindeki geli\u015fmelerin en fazla\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini etkileyece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a yayg\u0131n bir kan\u0131 haline gelmi\u015fti. Bu b\u00f6lgelerdeki olaylar\u0131n adeta kronikle\u015fip, beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcrmesi, hatta gittik\u00e7e yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00f6zkonusu olumsuz etkilerin son haftalarda daha yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde hissedilmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n sonucunda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine d\u00f6n\u00fck olumlu alg\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha \u00f6nce bozulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Bu s\u00fcrecin se\u00e7imden \u00f6nce bir sonu\u00e7 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Ama se\u00e7imden sonra tablonun beklenenden farkl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fark ettiniz mi bilmiyorum. Son bir hafta i\u00e7inde ekonomide hava de\u011fi\u015fti gibi. Nereye baksan\u0131z risk vurgusu yapan\u00a0 bir de\u011ferlendirme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ekonomide karamsarlar ve ihtiyatl\u0131 olanlar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}