{"id":37459,"date":"2014-12-22T22:32:18","date_gmt":"2014-12-22T20:32:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=37459"},"modified":"2014-12-22T23:21:34","modified_gmt":"2014-12-22T21:21:34","slug":"rusya-krize-girerse-bize-ne-olur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/rusya-krize-girerse-bize-ne-olur\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Rusya krize girerse bize ne olur?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u00d6ncelikle petrol \u00fczerinden d\u00fcnyada Rusya\u2019ya uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru koyal\u0131m. Bu bir finansal harptir. Yani esasen ortada silahlar\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, son d\u00f6neme damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran bir sava\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2103394644\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Suriye\u2019de ba\u015flayan Ukrayna\u2019da ikinci raundun, klasik ekonomiler taraf\u0131ndan kaybedilen bir m\u00fccadelenin, masa ba\u015f\u0131nda kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 hamlesidir. Ortadaki tart\u0131\u015fma \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 50- 60 y\u0131l\u0131n ekopolitik dengelerine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koyacak cepheler m\u00fccadele ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>O nedenle, bu meseleyi g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir tak\u0131m s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131larla veya geli\u015fmelerle okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak, muhtemelen do\u011fru sonu\u00e7 vermeyecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc iki taraf\u0131n da fark\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bir ger\u00e7ek var. Bug\u00fcn kaybeden, tamamen kaybeder.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Sadece bu sebeple bile oyunun bir g\u00fcnde bitece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek aldat\u0131c\u0131 olur. Fakat meseleye bug\u00fcnden bak\u0131p, bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan yorumlar\u0131 esas alarak bir soruyla yakla\u015fal\u0131m. Rusya krizi girerse ne olur?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle Rusya k\u0131sa vadede krizi g\u00f6ze alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Yani 1998\u2019ten daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda\u2026 O d\u00f6nemle bu zaman aras\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki fark ise, kasas\u0131ndaki tasarruflar\u0131 ve do\u011falgaz \u00fczerinden olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kurgu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Buna cephe \u00fclkeleri olan \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n o d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu unsurunu da eklemek laz\u0131m. Yani filmin sonu daha belli de\u011fil. Sadece iki kritik cepheden, mali olarak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131daki rakiplerine g\u00f6re avantajl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama k\u0131sa vade bizi \u00e7ok ilgilendiriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc AB gibi biz de, arada tost olmu\u015f durumday\u0131z. \u00a0AB\u2019nin gerek do\u011falgaz, gerekse de reel sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda ihracat nedeniyle \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre bu oyuna dayanmas\u0131 zor. Hele ki kendi i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131 ko\u015farak resesyona giderken\u2026 Ayr\u0131ca buradaki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir krizin Do\u011fu Avrupa temelli AB\u2019yi de vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Peki biz \u00e7ok mu farkl\u0131y\u0131z? Bug\u00fcn deri, tar\u0131m gibi bir\u00e7ok i\u015f kolunda neredeyse tek pazar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru ko\u015fuyoruz. \u00c7evremizde alternatif pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z kilitlenmi\u015fken, en b\u00fcy\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f noktam\u0131z AB daralmaya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenirken, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bir krize girmemesi bizim i\u00e7in zannedildi\u011finden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2982085946\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k \u00f6yle bor\u00e7 parayla ekonomi d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme devri bitti. \u00dcretebildi\u011finiz ve \u00fcretti\u011finizi satabildi\u011finiz kadar ayakta kalacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Satmazs\u0131n\u0131z, \u00fcretim tesislerinizin kapanmas\u0131na, ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131na kadar bir dizi etkiyi beraberinde ya\u015far\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Rusya Eski Maliye Bakan\u0131 Kudrin\u2019in bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 var. Sipari\u015f niteli\u011finde bir a\u00e7\u0131klama ama i\u00e7inde 2015\u2019te ithalatta y\u00fczde 40\u2019l\u0131k azalma sinyali kimi etkiler dersiniz? Peki k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan Rusya, orta vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bat\u0131 cephesinde yer alan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ne yapar?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yani reel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Rusya nezle olursa, biz grip oluruz. \u015eimdi bir \u015fehir efsanesi dola\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bize para ya\u011facak. AB\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi paraya bo\u011faca\u011f\u0131 ne kadar yalansa, bu da o kadar yalan. Sadece bu beklentiyle i\u00e7erideki uyan\u0131klara (!) risk sat\u0131p, ka\u00e7may\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi Ortado\u011fu ve Katar sermayesi gelmeyecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fmeyen bir ger\u00e7ek var. Biz halen k\u0131r\u0131lgan be\u015flinin en k\u0131r\u0131lgan\u0131y\u0131z. Daha \u00f6nceleri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye para getirmeyeni d\u00f6v\u00fcyorlar diye tarif ediyordum ya, \u015fimdi de soruyorum: Kim para bat\u0131rmak i\u00e7in buraya gelir bu saatten sonra?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2736617424\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Rus paras\u0131 m\u0131? Putin\u2019in 40 oligark ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye bak\u0131l\u0131rsa o da s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor ve zaten ikna olmayanlar\u0131n da maddi bak\u0131mdan \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Velhas\u0131l kelam bu i\u015fin sonunda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n krize girmesi bize ne yarar sa\u011flar; ne de s\u0131cak para bak\u0131m\u0131ndan f\u0131rsat verir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Olsa olsa \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze kabar\u0131k bir fatura koyar. O nedenle Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu finansal harp teknikleriyle itildi\u011fi krizden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya ekopoliti\u011finin dengelenmesi daha ak\u0131lc\u0131. Neden derseniz?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ko\u015far ad\u0131m gitti\u011fimiz krizden \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan para ortada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, pazar bulmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Elbette o g\u00fcn firmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 gereksiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla bat\u0131rmam\u0131\u015f ya da \u00fc\u00e7 kuru\u015fa satmam\u0131\u015fsak.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6ncelikle petrol \u00fczerinden d\u00fcnyada Rusya\u2019ya uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru koyal\u0131m. Bu bir finansal harptir. Yani esasen ortada silahlar\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, son d\u00f6neme damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran bir sava\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-37459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}