{"id":3691,"date":"2011-08-05T09:14:40","date_gmt":"2011-08-05T06:14:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3691"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:44:10","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:44:10","slug":"turkiye%e2%80%99nin-butce-sorunu-vardir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turkiye%e2%80%99nin-butce-sorunu-vardir\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e sorunu vard\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u00dclkelerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7elerini y\u00f6netebildikleri i\u00e7in ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 durabilirler, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise b\u00fct\u00e7elerini y\u00f6netemedikleri i\u00e7in ak\u0131nt\u0131da s\u00fcr\u00fcklenirler<\/strong>.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-538684458\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fhis edemeyen tedaviye ba\u015flayamaz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kamu maliyesinde bir problem vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e sorunu vard\u0131r. D\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6stergeleri ile bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda yokmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi, ortada bir sorun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmez. Yeni bir g\u00f6zle ve daha dikkatli bakmak gerekir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2001 krizi sonras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 oldu. \u015eimdi o kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n kaybedilmesi ihtimali her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor. En az\u0131ndan bana \u00f6yle geliyor. Gelin bak\u0131n neden \u00f6yle geliyor?<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada \u00fclkeler maliye politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikiye ayr\u0131l\u0131rlar. \u00dclkelerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7elerini y\u00f6netebildikleri i\u00e7in ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 durabilirler, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise b\u00fct\u00e7elerini y\u00f6netemedikleri i\u00e7in ak\u0131nt\u0131da s\u00fcr\u00fcklenirler. Ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 durabilenler, piyasalar daralmaya\/geni\u015flemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geni\u015fletici\/daralt\u0131c\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 uygulayarak, konjonkt\u00fcre artan kamu harcamalar\u0131\/tasarruflar\u0131 ile cevap verebilenlerdir. Ak\u0131nt\u0131da s\u00fcr\u00fcklenenler ise, gelirleri azald\u0131\u011f\u0131\/artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ramayan\/azaltamayan\u2019lard\u0131r. \u0130lk b\u00f6l\u00fcmdekiler aktivisttir, b\u00fct\u00e7eyle y\u00f6netirler, ikinciler hareketsizdir, y\u00f6netmeyi beceremezler. T\u00fcrkiye giderek beceriksizler kategorisine girme e\u011filimindedir. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz \u00e7a\u011f geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin miki fare devletleri olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler gibi ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e politikalar\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flayabildikleri bir \u00e7a\u011fd\u0131r. \u015eili\u2019den Brezilya\u2019ya pek \u00e7ok Latin Amerika \u00fclkesi son d\u00f6nemlerde modern maliye tekniklerini uygulamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye de, 2001 krizinden sonra, \u00e7a\u011fda\u015fla\u015fmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen, eski hastal\u0131klar\u0131n tekrar hortlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fidir. Bu iyi de\u011fil, k\u00f6t\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00e7ede b\u00f6yle bir problem oldu\u011funa dair ilk emare faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e giderlerinin milli gelir i\u00e7indeki seyridir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik onu g\u00f6steriyor. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonundan 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonuna b\u00fct\u00e7ede faiz harcamalar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00e7e giderlerinin milli gelir (GSY\u0130H) i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 35 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6nce k\u00fcresel kriz nas\u0131l olsa bizi te\u011fet ge\u00e7iyor diye hi\u00e7bir b\u00fct\u00e7e tedbiri almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ge\u00e7 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Hata yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda ge\u00e7 kalarak da olsa, faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltilmi\u015ftir. Krize kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015fletici maliye politikas\u0131 devreye sokulmu\u015ftur. Ancak tedbirler ge\u00e7 devreye girdi\u011fi i\u00e7in 2008 ve 2009 y\u0131llar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi derin bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Geni\u015fletici politikalar\u0131n da deste\u011fi ile 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomi h\u0131zla toparlanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6yle ki, h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcreci cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tarihi bir rekora ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Konjonkt\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftir. Ancak kamu harcamalar\u0131, y\u00fckseldi\u011fi yerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inmemektedir. \u0130\u015fte grafikten benim anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m budur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bo\u015flu\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Geleyim ikinci delile. \u0130kinci delil, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Yap\u0131sal B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi ve Mali Duru\u015f\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmadad\u0131r. Cem \u00c7ebi ve \u00dcmit \u00d6zlale, maliye politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc yani ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131, ancak 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yani ak\u0131nt\u0131da s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen, 2008 ve 2010 y\u0131llar\u0131nda ise n\u00f6tr yani hareketsiz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedirler. Ben bunun b\u00fct\u00e7enin makro \u00e7er\u00e7eve dikkate al\u0131narak y\u00f6netilmedi\u011fine karine olarak al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Grafikte de\u011fi\u015fen konjonkt\u00fcre ra\u011fmen de\u011fi\u015fen harcama d\u00fczeyi tam da o\u2019dur.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?attachment_id=30487\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-30487\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"gs\" src=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/gs.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"220\" height=\"177\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc dikkate alan bir b\u00fct\u00e7e ve maliye politikas\u0131 yoktur.<br \/>\nD\u00fcnk\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 karar\u0131, o alanda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flayan bo\u015flu\u011fa i\u015faret etmektedir.<br \/>\n\u201cSald\u0131m \u00e7ay\u0131ra, Mevlam kay\u0131ra\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 genelle\u015fmektedir.<br \/>\nRahmetli Karl Amca hep \u015f\u00f6yle derdi: \u201cS\u00f6yledim ve ahiretimi kurtard\u0131m.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcven SAK<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1174427996\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dclkelerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7elerini y\u00f6netebildikleri i\u00e7in ak\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 durabilirler, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise b\u00fct\u00e7elerini y\u00f6netemedikleri i\u00e7in ak\u0131nt\u0131da s\u00fcr\u00fcklenirler. Hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fhis edemeyen tedaviye ba\u015flayamaz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kamu maliyesinde bir problem&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3691\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}