{"id":3688,"date":"2011-08-05T06:18:21","date_gmt":"2011-08-05T03:18:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3688"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:44:18","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:44:18","slug":"merkez-%e2%80%98gamli-baykus%e2%80%99-gibi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-%e2%80%98gamli-baykus%e2%80%99-gibi\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez \u2018Gaml\u0131 Bayku\u015f\u2019 Gibi&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AB Merkez Bankas\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken T\u00fcrkiye Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidecek bir Avrupa ve ikinci dibi yapacak ABD bekliyor olmal\u0131 ki bu kadar agresif bir parasal geni\u015fleme mesaj\u0131 verdi. Al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler adeta kriz kap\u0131ya dayanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc i\u00e7eriyor. Merkez d\u00f6viz\u00a0<span><strong>sat\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ihalelerine bug\u00fcn ba\u015flarsa ve yabanc\u0131lar Merkez\u2019in al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k kararlar\u0131na al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa dolarda 1.6750-1.69 band\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilebiliriz. D\u00f6vizde sinirlilik halinin devam\u0131nda ise dolar kuru 1.7650\u2019yi yukar\u0131 k\u0131rabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-61373433\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnk\u00fc kararlar\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ekonominin\u00a0<span><strong>yeni\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>karar vericisi konumuna y\u00fckselmeye aday \u201cFinansal \u0130stikrar Komitesi F\u0130K\u201d toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hemen ertesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc\u201d toplanan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli kararlar verdi:<\/p>\n<p>1) Politika faizi olan bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 6.25\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5.75\u2019e d\u00fcs\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>2) MB\u2019n\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7 alma faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.50\u2019den y\u00fczde 5\u2019e y\u00fckseltilirken; bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9\u2019da sabit tutuldu.<\/p>\n<p>3) Gerek g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcnlerde d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihaleleri yap\u0131lacak. MB d\u00f6viz sat\u0131s\u0131 yapma karar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde, sat\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lacak tutar\u0131 saat\u00a0<span><strong>11<\/strong><\/span>.00\u2019da ilan edecek. (gereksiz bir belirsizlik!)<\/p>\n<p>4) Bir kurulu\u015fun haftal\u0131k repo ihalelerine verebilece\u011fi toplam teklif tutar\u0131, ilan edilen ihale tutar\u0131n\u0131n en fazla y\u00fczde 20\u2019si ile s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rd\u0131. (<span><strong>daha<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00e7ok teknik bir d\u00fczenleme)<\/p>\n<p>MB t\u00fcm bu kararlar\u0131n\u0131, \u201cBaz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerindeki kamu borcu sorununa\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye iliskin endi\u015feler giderek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f ve Temmuz ay\u0131 Kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015faret edilen riskler belirginle\u015fmi\u015ftir\u201d tezine dayand\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. Daha do\u011frusu MB, d\u00fcn bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile faizlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen ve \u201cAB\u2019de \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d bekleyen Trichet\u2019den \u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir Avrupa ve ikinci dibe do\u011fru giden bir Amerika bekliyor. Aksi takdirde bu denli agresif bir \u201cparasal geni\u015fleme\u201d mesaj\u0131 veren bir \u201cpolitika karma(\u015fa)s\u0131\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamazd\u0131. (Acaba PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n normal zaman\u0131ndan 19 g\u00fcn \u00f6nceye al\u0131nmas\u0131nda AB\u2019nin 19 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde durgunlu\u011fa girece\u011fi beklentisi mi vard\u0131?)<\/p>\n<p>Al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler adeta kriz kap\u0131ya dayanm\u0131\u015f, acil daralma var ve MB bunlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem al\u0131yor gibi. Hatta i\u015fler sanki daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidecekmi\u015f. Bu nedenle, \u201cBankam\u0131z, bug\u00fcne kadar oldu\u011fu gibi bundan sonra da her t\u00fcrl\u00fc piyasa ko\u015fulunda piyasan\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 olan likiditeyi sa\u011flamaya, kurulu\u015flar aras\u0131nda likiditenin dengeli bir \u015fekilde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na gereken \u00f6zeni g\u00f6stermeye devam edecektir\u201d diyerek bu politikalar\u0131n\u0131 gerekti\u011finde daha da agresif olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011finin mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2783734432\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>IMF ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar ve yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u201c\u0131s\u0131nan ekonomiler\u201d aras\u0131nda g\u00f6sterilen T\u00fcrkiye konusunda belli ki MB farkl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bir s\u00fcreden beri bu sava kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren MB son kararlar\u0131yla da \u201ckendisiyle tutarl\u0131\u201d bir yol izledi\u011fini ortaya koymu\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak belli ki piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 MB gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer \u00f6yle olsayd\u0131 y\u00fczde 5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kan gecelik faiz ve y\u00fcksek kur ile birlikte d\u00f6viz al\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil, tam tersine sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmesi gerekirdi. Gecelik faiz band\u0131n\u0131 bor\u00e7 alma faizi taraf\u0131ndan daralt\u0131rken MB\u2019nin beklentisi de bu de\u011fil mi?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2366313719\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>MB bir yandan faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek ekonominin daralmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bankalara konulan y\u00fczde 25\u2019lik kredi art\u0131\u015f \u201cz\u0131mni limiti\u201d sayesinde talebi kontrol edece\u011fini, edemedi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131m nedeniyle artmaya devam edecek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa da \u201cs\u0131cak paray\u0131\u201d davet ederek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyada \u201cikinci dip krizi\u201d \u00e7\u0131karsa bu senaryo \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. Hatta bu ba\u015far\u0131 T\u00fcrk ekonomi y\u00f6netimini d\u00fcnya literat\u00fcr\u00fcne sokacak denli b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n<p>Ama ya d\u00fcnyada ikinci dip tarz\u0131 bir kriz olmaz ve ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ederse ne olur? Duvara toslar\u0131z! O zaman ba\u015fta cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve enflasyon olmak \u00fczere durum i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz bir hal al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 \u201cgeri \u00e7evirecek\u201d \u00e7ok zeki mekanizmalar da mevcut de\u011fil. Yap\u0131labilecek tek \u015fey kal\u0131r geriye. O da t\u0131pk\u0131 Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz\u2019\u0131n ilk faiz indirimi sonras\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yine bir \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc PPK\u201d ile faizleri orant\u0131s\u0131z bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131yla y\u00fckseltti\u011fi gibi artt\u0131rmaktan ba\u015fka \u00e7are kalmayacakt\u0131r. O zaman da olan MB\u2019nin kredibilitesine olur.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadedeki piyasaya etkilerine gelince&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131nda (paritede ne olursa olsun!) 1.7350 seviyesi kritik. Bu seviye ikinci kez test edildi! MB bug\u00fcn d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerine agresif bir miktar ve tutumla ba\u015flayacak olur ise a\u015f\u0131lmayabilir! \u00d6zellikle yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar MB\u2019nin al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k kararlar\u0131na \u2018al\u0131\u015facak olurlarsa\u2019 yeniden 1.6750-1.69 band\u0131na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta sonuna kadar d\u00f6nebiliriz. Yok e\u011fer ikna olmazlar ve d\u00f6vizdeki sinirlilik devam edecek olur ise 1.7650\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. Bu seviye hayli kritik! Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa MB\u2019nin ve piyasalar\u0131n i\u015fi hayli zorla\u015facak!<\/p>\n<p>Bono taraf\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir al\u0131m gelmesini beklemek hata olur.<\/p>\n<p>Yine de ben 8.30 bile\u015fik seviyelerine kadar faizlerin gerilemesini ancak bu seviyenin uzunca bir s\u00fcre korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Kurlardaki tedirginlik ve g\u00fcvensizlik devam ettik\u00e7e \u0130MKB\u2019deki (faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri bankalara yarar yorumlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen!) sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir dile getirdi\u011fim 3.20 cent seviyesine kadar devam etmesini bekliyorum. Bu arada ABD\u2019deki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n devam ediyor olmas\u0131 da bu ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AB Merkez Bankas\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken T\u00fcrkiye Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidecek bir Avrupa ve ikinci dibi yapacak ABD bekliyor olmal\u0131 ki bu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}