{"id":3682,"date":"2011-08-04T16:23:13","date_gmt":"2011-08-04T13:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3682"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:44:25","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:44:25","slug":"gitme-kal-bu-sehirde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gitme-kal-bu-sehirde\/","title":{"rendered":"Gitme, Kal Bu \u015eehirde"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nazan \u00d6ncel\u2019in \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fim \u015fark\u0131lar\u0131ndan birinin s\u00f6zleridir \u2018gitme, kal bu \u015fehirde.\u2019 \u015eark\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131nda da \u2018yaz\u0131k olur bize\u2019 der sanat\u00e7\u0131\u2026 \u0130\u015fte Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar da ayn\u0131 bu eserdeki duyguyu yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1231548629\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Be\u015f y\u0131l aradan sonrada ilk kez ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplanan Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndan \u00e7\u0131kan faiz kararlar\u0131 herkesi \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son bir y\u0131lda ortaya koydu\u011fu iradenin tersi bir foto\u011fraf verdi.<\/p>\n<p>Meseleye sadece rakam baz\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131rsan\u0131z \u00e7ok anlam ifade etmiyor. A\u00e7\u0131klanan faiz tavr\u0131n\u0131n ne demek istedi\u011fine bakmak gerekir. Mesela politika faizinin y\u00fczde 6,25\u2019ten, y\u00fczde 5,75\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te kredi maliyetlerinin de az da olsa ucuzlayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u0131s\u0131nan ekonomiyi so\u011futmaya ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi biraz engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin tam tersi bir tav\u0131r anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bug\u00fcne kadar ekonomi y\u00f6netimi \u2018harcay\u0131n\u2019 diye hayk\u0131r\u0131rken, Merkez Bankas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kredilendirmeyi \u00f6nleyecek munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar gibi enstr\u00fcmanlarla \u00f6nlem almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu karar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te piyasalar\u0131n, kamuoyunda tahmin edilenden daha \u00e7ok daralaca\u011f\u0131na dalalettir. Yani Merkez Bankas\u0131 t\u00fcketim odakl\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kredilendirmeden rahats\u0131zken, b\u00f6yle bir tavra b\u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcyse bunun iki anlam\u0131 olabilir. Ya siyasi iradeden bask\u0131 yedi ya da zaten \u00e7ok daralacak ekonomiye daha sonra nefes ald\u0131racak bir kart a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikinci faiz karar\u0131 ise yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na daha uygun\u2026 Gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,50\u2019den y\u00fczde 5\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi. S\u0131cak paran\u0131n pen\u00e7esine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f bir ekonomide gecelik faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 bu seviyede art\u0131r\u0131yorsan\u0131z bug\u00fcne kadar Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki politikadan vazge\u00e7tiniz ve s\u0131cak paray\u0131 davet ediyorsunuz demektir.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat ikinci bir ihtimal daha var ki o da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansmanla ilgili \u00e7aresizli\u011fi g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yani 105 ila 120 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu tahmin edilen ve \u00fclkeyi terk etmeye haz\u0131rlanan s\u0131cak paraya \u2018k\u00f6pr\u00fcden \u00f6nce son \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u2019 uyar\u0131s\u0131 veriliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu denli bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fka bir anlam\u0131 olamaz. Politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu olsa, oran\u0131n b\u00f6ylesine y\u00fcksek art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na gerek yok. \u2018Acil d\u00f6nem uyar\u0131s\u0131\u2019 gibi bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bahsediyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2416153315\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu da uzun d\u00f6nemden beri d\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeler, 2012\u2019de Basel 3\u2019\u00fcn devreye girecek olmas\u0131, bankac\u0131l\u0131k i\u015flemlerine y\u00f6nelik vergilerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Avrupa ve ABD ekonomisinin acil finansman ihtiyac\u0131 gibi kriterlerle beslendi\u011finde \u00e7ok daha manidar hale geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi as\u0131l cevab\u0131 merak edilen soru \u015fu: S\u0131cak paraya sahip, ad\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 denilen tefeciler ve akbabalar bu mesaja ne kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verecek? \u0130\u015fte verilen o cevap olumlu olursa, daha \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lanma ve sermaye transferi, olumsuz olursa da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kriz demek. Se\u00e7in, se\u00e7ebilirseniz\u2026<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nazan \u00d6ncel\u2019in \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fim \u015fark\u0131lar\u0131ndan birinin s\u00f6zleridir \u2018gitme, kal bu \u015fehirde.\u2019 \u015eark\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131nda da \u2018yaz\u0131k olur bize\u2019 der sanat\u00e7\u0131\u2026 \u0130\u015fte Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3682\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}