{"id":36659,"date":"2014-10-30T08:41:51","date_gmt":"2014-10-30T06:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=36659"},"modified":"2014-10-30T08:51:50","modified_gmt":"2014-10-30T06:51:50","slug":"fed-karari-sonrasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-karari-sonrasi\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Karar\u0131 Sonras\u0131&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirdi ve kayda de\u011fer bir s\u00fcre daha faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2942328828\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre ne kadar bir s\u00fcredir diye merak eden olursa, daha \u00f6nce FED ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Stanley Fischer bu s\u00fcrenin 6 ay ile 1 y\u0131l aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. Ekim ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fumuza g\u00f6re demek ki 2015&#8217;in ekim ay\u0131na kadar faizler artmaya ba\u015flayacak. E\u011fer 6 ay\u0131 baz al\u0131rsak, Nisan gibi faizlerin artmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Hadi biz orta noktay\u0131 bulal\u0131m ve 8-9 ay diyelim. Bu durumda Ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine 8-9 ay sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Haziran-Temmuz d\u00f6nemine denk geliyor. Yani tam da bizim se\u00e7imlerin olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlere dek geliyor. Asl\u0131nda faiz art\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flayan kadar zaten bu art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n beklentileri piyasalarda fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk ay, borsadan hisse almak laz\u0131m. \u00a0Bu analiz \u00e7ok uzun vadeli oldu. Bug\u00fcn BIST-100&#8217;\u00fcn nas\u0131l bir hareket izleyebilece\u011fini aktarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fay\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Sizlere daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda bahsetti\u011fim seanaryolardan N\u00f6tr ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fim senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Normalde bu senaryoya g\u00f6re piyasalar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck tepkiler vermemesi gerekiyordu. Fakat d\u00fcn Dolar\/TL kurundaki hareketlere bak\u0131nca, 2.1897 seviyelerinden bu sabah 2.22&#8217;nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan bir dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani etkisi bekledi\u011fimden sert oldu. Demek ki, piyasalar ger\u00e7ekten de Varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131n devam ettirilece\u011fine baya\u011f\u0131 inanm\u0131\u015flar ve bunu da fiyatlam\u0131\u015flar. Ayn\u0131 durum borsa i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli olabilir fakat borsan\u0131n kurlara g\u00f6re daha az bir volatilite sergileyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00a0Japon yeni&#8217;nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, bu durumun Japon ekonomisini canland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle \u00a0bu sabah Asya piyasalar\u0131 genelde olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Brezilya y\u00fczde 2.45 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131. Hindistan ise y\u00fczde 0.40 art\u0131da bulunuyor. \u00a0Madem Japon yeni d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc japon ekonomisi canlanacak, TL&#8217;nin de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, bu durum ihracat\u0131m\u0131za olumlu etki yapmaz m\u0131? sorusuna cevab\u0131m\u0131z e\u011fer bu kadar cari a\u00e7\u0131k olmasayd\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan en fazla olumsuz etkilenecek \u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye olmasayd\u0131 bizim i\u00e7in de bu sabah borsan\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir sabah olabilirdi. Fakat yine de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar karamsar olmamal\u0131lar. Endeks sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 79.589 seviyesinden kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tahminen 79 bin veya alt\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapacakt\u0131r. 78.500 seviyesi yine destek g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcr. E\u011fer BIST-100 \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapmazsa hi\u00e7 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak gerekir. \u0130lk anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olsa bile ard\u0131ndan al\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz fakat 79.750&#8217;nin \u00fczerine gitmesi ve hele ki 80 bini ge\u00e7mesi bu a\u015famada \u00e7ok zor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 79 bin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, daha sonra burada dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 tepki yapmas\u0131 ama bu ilk tepkinin c\u0131l\u0131z kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. \u0130kinci bir \u00a0yukar\u0131 hareket daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olacakt\u0131r. Bu sabah T\u00fcrkiye CDS&#8217;lerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f yok ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket var. Bu durumun da borsa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu oldu\u011funu belirtelim. \u00a0Borsada k\u00f6t\u00fcmser olmak i\u00e7in, ilk yar\u0131m saatte olu\u015fan dip seviyeler e\u011fer seans\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilirse sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artar. Fakat piyasa FED \u00f6ncesi genelde al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te endeksi en az\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7abas\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bug\u00fcn ABD&#8217;n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi ilk tahmini a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. E\u011fer bu rakam\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelirse piyasa bunu yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in kullan\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc FED&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yine verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ama y\u00fczde 3&#8217;ten y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 en az\u0131ndan 80 binin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmelidir. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f 400-500 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan olursa k\u0131sa vadeli ve trade ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu t\u00fcr bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda \u00a05-6 kademelik y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 her zaman vard\u0131r. \u00a0Sonu\u00e7 olarak g\u00fcn bitti\u011finde FED karar\u0131n\u0131n n\u00f6tr etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi zannediyorum. \u00d6\u011fle aras\u0131nda verece\u011fim yorum daha \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirdi ve kayda de\u011fer bir s\u00fcre daha faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu s\u00fcre ne&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,1396,715],"class_list":["post-36659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-sirketlerin-net-doviz-pozisyonlari","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36659\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}