{"id":3638,"date":"2011-08-04T09:14:36","date_gmt":"2011-08-04T06:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3638"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:45:13","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:45:13","slug":"soru-isareti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/soru-isareti\/","title":{"rendered":"Soru \u0130\u015fareti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Bug\u00fcn ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplanacak olan Para Kurulu\u2019nda \u00f6ncelikle faiz koridorunun daralt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik karar al\u0131nabilir.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-809403972\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Aral\u0131k 2009\u2019da \u2018Finansal Krizler ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019 adl\u0131 bir kitab\u0131m yay\u0131mland\u0131 (Do\u011fan Kitap). Kitab\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc k\u00fcresel kriz \u00fczerine. Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle: \u2018K\u00fcresel kriz: 2007\u2013(?)\u2019. Aral\u0131k 2009\u2019da hen\u00fcz kriz bitmedi\u011fi ve ne zaman bitece\u011fi de belli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in biti\u015f tarihi yerine soru i\u015fareti var ba\u015fl\u0131kta. Nisan 2011\u2019de kitab\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu bask\u0131ya yeni bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm eklememe ve di\u011fer b\u00f6l\u00fcmleri g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeme kar\u015f\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedim. K\u00fcresel krizin biti\u015f tarihine ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretini korudum.<\/p>\n<p>Kitab\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 nisan ay\u0131 yerine \u015fimdi haz\u0131rl\u0131yor olsayd\u0131m soru i\u015faretini yine korurdum. ABD\u2019den ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden kaynaklanan \u00f6nemli belirsizlikler var zira. Bu belirsizlikler m\u00fcthi\u015f dalgalanmalar g\u00f6steriyorlar. Bir bak\u0131yorsunuz belirsizlikler had safhaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 bozulma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Sonra birtak\u0131m kararlar al\u0131n\u0131yor bu \u00fclkelerde ve belirsizlik azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Avrupa\u2019da sorun s\u00fcr\u00fcyor\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Yunanistan\u2019a ili\u015fkin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar neden sonra Avrupal\u0131 liderlerin di\u015fe dokunur bir \u015feyler yapmaya karar verdikleri alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011furmu\u015ftu. Avrupa\u2019da biriken devasa riskler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan umut verici bir geli\u015fmeydi bu. Herkes b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyordu elbette ama bu do\u011frultuda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler de az de\u011fildi. Ben de ayn\u0131 kan\u0131dayd\u0131m ve son yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda bunu da belirtmi\u015ftim. Keza ABD\u2019de Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler\u2019le Demokratlar aras\u0131ndaki \u2018kavgan\u0131n\u2019 eninde sonunda bitip 2 A\u011fustos\u2019tan \u00f6nce ABD\u2019deki bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu; \u00f6yle de oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Dikkat ederseniz bu son iki karar sorunlar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor. Sadece \u2018an\u0131n\u2019 belirsizliklerini azalt\u0131yor, \u2018yar\u0131nki\u2019 belirsizlikleri ise pek etkilemiyor. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerine ili\u015fkin temel sorunlar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00dcstelik \u0130talya\u2019ya ili\u015fkin ku\u015fkular son haftalarda artt\u0131. ABD\u2019nin daha fazla bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131na izin veren bir yasay\u0131 nihayet \u00e7\u0131karabilmesi de b\u00fct\u00e7esi zaten olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde a\u00e7\u0131k veren ve kamu borcu k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen bir ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131k ki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil. Ger\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131kan yasada b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmler var, zaten temel tart\u0131\u015fma da bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131l\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imine y\u00f6nelikti. Ama b\u00fct\u00e7ede yap\u0131lacak d\u00fczeltme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u2018gariplik\u2019 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Kald\u0131 ki ABD ekonomisinde yava\u015flama sinyalleri pe\u015fi s\u0131ra gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 artt\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirtiler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. E\u015fit miktarda euro ve dolardan olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz sepetinin lira kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu ortam a\u00e7\u0131k ki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi etkiliyor. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131, ge\u00e7en hafta enflasyon raporunun tan\u0131t\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131. Konu\u015fman\u0131n metni MB\u2019nin internet sayfas\u0131nda var. On ikinci sayfan\u0131n sonundan ba\u015flayarak bir sonraki sayfaya sarkan iki c\u00fcmle \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-859360835\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u201cBaz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerindeki kamu borcu sorununa ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemeye devam etmesi halinde faiz koridorunu kademeli olarak daraltabilece\u011fimizi daha \u00f6nce belirtmi\u015ftik. Ayr\u0131ca, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke ekonomilerindeki sorunlar\u0131n daha da derinle\u015fmesi ve yurti\u00e7i iktisadi faaliyetin durgunluk s\u00fcrecine girmesi halinde ise b\u00fct\u00fcn politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 geni\u015fletici y\u00f6nde kullanmam\u0131z\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fini vurgulamak istiyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>MB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu bug\u00fcn \u2018ara toplant\u0131\u2019 yap\u0131yor. Siz bunu ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131 diye de okuyabilirsiniz. Ba\u015fkan, konu\u015fmas\u0131nda kurdaki son art\u0131\u015flar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde art\u0131k liran\u0131n de\u011ferli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu vurgulama, kurdaki son art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi ve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m al\u0131nt\u0131, toplant\u0131da \u00f6ncelikle faiz koridorunun daralt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir karar al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. MB\u2019nin bor\u00e7 alma faizini belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesi beklenir. Koridorun \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir de\u011ferlendirme ayr\u0131 bir yaz\u0131 konusu olabilir; kredi arz\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 frenleme amac\u0131 analizi biraz kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor (belirsizlik yaratacak manevra alan\u0131na gereksinim duyabilir MB). Bunlar yap\u0131l\u0131rken politika faizi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir oranda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilir mi? Al\u0131nt\u0131daki ikinci c\u00fcmle \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, b\u00f6yle bir karar i\u00e7in yurti\u00e7i iktisadi faaliyetin durgunluk s\u00fcrecine girmesi gerekiyor ki b\u00f6yle bir durum yok.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplanacak olan Para Kurulu\u2019nda \u00f6ncelikle faiz koridorunun daralt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik karar al\u0131nabilir. Aral\u0131k 2009\u2019da \u2018Finansal Krizler ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019 adl\u0131 bir kitab\u0131m yay\u0131mland\u0131 (Do\u011fan Kitap).&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3638"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3638\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}