{"id":3635,"date":"2011-08-04T09:12:49","date_gmt":"2011-08-04T06:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3635"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:45:18","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:45:18","slug":"ne-soku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ne-soku\/","title":{"rendered":"Ne \u015foku?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun toplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bile piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumlu bir etki yaratt\u0131 ve \u015fok etkisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1909091393\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><\/strong>\u00a0Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda son birka\u00e7 haftada ya\u015fanan \u015foklar \u00fczerinde durmu\u015ftum. ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 limiti krizi, Yunanistan, Portekiz, \u0130spanya ve ard\u0131ndan \u0130talya\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7rama a\u015famas\u0131na gelmi\u015f olan kamu bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc krizlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015foklara de\u011finmi\u015ftim. Bizdeki \u015foklara \u00f6rnek olarak da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, yap\u0131lan \u00e7e\u015fitli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz hava ve YA\u015e\u2019ta ya\u015fanan \u00e7e\u015fitli geli\u015fmelerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015foklara de\u011finmi\u015ftim. Baz\u0131 okurlar \u015fok denince \u00e7\u00f6kmeyi anl\u0131yorlar. Oysa \u015fok denilen \u015fey, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n ya da beklentinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lard\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131n baz\u0131s\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, baz\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 olabilir. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 olanlar\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 olanlar\u0131n habercisi de olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 okurlar cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi\u011fimi ama \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nermedi\u011fimi s\u00f6yleyerek kendi \u00f6nerilerini s\u0131ral\u0131yorlar. Oysa s\u0131ralad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nerilerin \u00e7o\u011fu benim eski yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda ortaya koydu\u011fum \u00f6neriler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bize ne d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyadan?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>\u015eok meselesini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen baz\u0131 okurlar\u0131m \u201cNe \u015foku\u201d diye soruyorlar. Daha sorunun m\u00fcrekkebi kurumadan yeni bir \u015fok dalgas\u0131 ABD ve \u0130talya\u2019dan geliverdi. \u00d6nce ABD\u2019nin kredi notunun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizini a\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131 tahminleri yay\u0131ld\u0131. 1,67\u2019lere gerilemi\u015f olan dolar TL kuru 1,72\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131verdi, \u0130MKB geriledi, faiz y\u00fckseldi. Bu geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerine TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu ara toplant\u0131 yapmaya karar verdi. Bug\u00fcn o toplant\u0131 yap\u0131lacak ve kararlar al\u0131nacak. \u0130\u015fte \u015fok dedi\u011fimiz \u015fey bu.<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 okurlar da \u201cBize ne ABD\u2019nin, AB\u2019nin ya da \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n durumundan? Bizim durum iyi olsun yeter\u201d diye yaz\u0131yorlar. Tam bu sorular\u0131 yan\u0131tlamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken \u0130talya\u2019dan esen kriz r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 bizim piyasalar\u0131 da da\u011f\u0131t\u0131nca yan\u0131t kendili\u011finden gelmi\u015f oldu. K\u00fcresel sistemde herkesin kap\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k duruyor. Bir evde grip g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcnce \u00f6tekilere de bula\u015f\u0131veriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6teki ekonomilerde neler olup bitti\u011fi bizi art\u0131k eskisine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha fazla ilgilendiriyor. \u201cEfendim, ABD bats\u0131n, maksat bize bir \u015fey olmas\u0131n\u201d deyip ge\u00e7mek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD batarsa ne Rusya, ne \u00c7in ne de ba\u015fka bir \u00fclke \u00f6yle ayakta kalamaz. \u0130talya batarsa ucu bize de dokunur. Art\u0131k ekonomiler a\u00e7\u0131k, kimsenin krizlere kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sistemini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutmu\u015f ekonomilerin bu t\u00fcr bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 krizleri veya \u015foklar\u0131 daha hafif atlatma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Almanya mesela son krizi en rahat atlatan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden birisi oldu. Brezilya, \u00c7in ve T\u00fcrkiye de geli\u015fme yolundaki ekonomiler i\u00e7inde krizi en rahat atlatan ekonomilerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer ald\u0131lar. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 astronomik boyutta b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonominin iki aya\u011f\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Bir ekonominin iki aya\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bunlar\u0131n i\u00e7 denge ve d\u0131\u015f denge oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan i\u00e7 denge aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam, d\u0131\u015f denge aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sakat oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Yani T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f denge aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye bastonuyla idare ediyor. O bastonu elinden al\u0131n\u0131rsa o zaman y\u00fcr\u00fcmesi zorla\u015fabilir. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da olup bitenler bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en ufak bir \u015fokta hem dolar\u0131n hem de euronun TL\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir toplant\u0131 yapacak ve d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirerek T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye etkilerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekip gerekmeyece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015farak baz\u0131 kararlar alacak. D\u00fcn kurulun toplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bile piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumlu bir etki yaratt\u0131 ve \u015fok etkisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ben TCMB\u2019nin faiz koridorunu daraltma se\u00e7ene\u011fini tercih edece\u011fini tahmin ediyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3615605355\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun toplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bile piyasalar \u00fczerinde olumlu bir etki yaratt\u0131 ve \u015fok etkisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00a0Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda son birka\u00e7 haftada ya\u015fanan \u015foklar \u00fczerinde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}