{"id":36271,"date":"2014-10-10T08:48:36","date_gmt":"2014-10-10T05:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=36271"},"modified":"2014-10-10T09:01:17","modified_gmt":"2014-10-10T06:01:17","slug":"kuresel-buyume-endiseleri-madalyonun-iki-yuzu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kuresel-buyume-endiseleri-madalyonun-iki-yuzu\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel B\u00fcy\u00fcme Endi\u015feleri &#8211; Madalyonun \u0130ki Y\u00fcz\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn FED tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00a0etkisiyle BIST-100 endeksi y\u00fczde 3.10 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131 ve ilk \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olan 75.250 civar\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f oldu. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2389724447\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu sabah g\u00fcndeme ve piyasalara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise \u00f6zellikle Almanya&#8217;dan gelen ihracat verileri sonras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem A\u011fustos ay\u0131 oldu. Bu da Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n da resesyona do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi endi\u015fesini yaratt\u0131. Zaten IMF&#8217;nin de Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1.9&#8217;dan y\u00fczde 1.4&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi daha \u00f6nce piyasalar\u0131 olumsuz etkilemi\u015fti. D\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan biri de, FED ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Stanley Fischer&#8217;den geldi. Fischer &#8220;kayda de\u011fer s\u00fcre&#8221;nin 2 aydan 1 y\u0131la kadar olan bir d\u00f6nemi kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu s\u00f6ylemi FED tutanaklar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerle birle\u015ftirirsek, 2015&#8217;in ortalar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00a0Richmond FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeffry Lacker \u00a0faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00a0Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sak\u0131ncas\u0131, ABD ekonomisi \u00fczerinde \u00a0yapaca\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkidir. Hem dolar\u0131n daha da de\u011ferlenmesine sebep olarak ABD&#8217;nin ihracat\u00e7\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerini olumsuz etkiler, hem de k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye de darbe vurabilir. Tabi ki bu arada z\u0131t\u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler de var. San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, Fed&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun s\u00fcre beklemeyece\u011fini, Fed&#8217;in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre beklemesi halinde ABD ekonomisinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u00a0\u0131s\u0131nabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Williams&#8217;a g\u00f6re faizler 2015 ortas\u0131nda artmaya ba\u015flayacak. \u00a0D\u00fcn Avr. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u00a0&#8220;G\u00fcven artmad\u0131k\u00e7a krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil&#8221; dedi.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda bu sabah, Asya cephesinde genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u00f6z konusu. D\u00fcn dow ve S&amp;P500 endeksleri de y\u00fczde 2 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydettiler. Bu sabah ABD vadelileri y\u00fczde 0.11 civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131da bulunuyorlar ama, borsam\u0131z\u0131n di\u011fer piyasalarla benzer y\u00f6nde bir hareket yapmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fim haberlerde madalyonun iki y\u00fcz\u00fc var. Biri olumlu biri olumsuz; \u00a0\u00d6nce olumlu taraftan bahsedelim. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri ABD&#8217;de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 geciktirecektir.\u00a0Bu etki nedeniyle, dolar endeksi (DXY) d\u00fcn ABD borsalar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f kaydetmedi. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 85 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten 85.50 civar\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselebildi. \u00a0Borsam\u0131z dolar kurundaki hareketlerden etkileniyor. DXY endeksinin fazla y\u00fckselmemesi faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan 2015&#8217;in ortalar\u0131na kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olup, yeniden 86.50 civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla dolar\/TL kurunda 2.30 seviyelerine uzak kalmaya devam edece\u011fimizi s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00a0K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerinin olumsuz taraf\u0131 ise, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa&#8217;daki resesyona do\u011fru giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te ihracat potansiyelimiz azalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak bug\u00fcn endeks d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131lacakt\u0131r fakat, \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemiyorum. En az\u0131ndan ABD ve Asya borsalar\u0131ndaki \u00e7apta olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. Endeksi i\u00e7in 74 bin seviyesi yeniden destek olabilir. \u0130lk andaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, yatay seyir g\u00f6rebiliriz. 73 bin seviyesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa i\u015fler yeniden terse d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu seviye stop olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmelidir. ENdeksin bug\u00fcn 74 bin ile 75 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn FED tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00a0etkisiyle BIST-100 endeksi y\u00fczde 3.10 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131 ve ilk \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olan 75.250 civar\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu sabah g\u00fcndeme ve piyasalara&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,715],"class_list":["post-36271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36271\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}