{"id":36242,"date":"2014-10-08T22:22:25","date_gmt":"2014-10-08T19:22:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=36242"},"modified":"2014-10-08T23:22:25","modified_gmt":"2014-10-08T20:22:25","slug":"babacan-bile-inanmadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/babacan-bile-inanmadi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Babacan bile inanmad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Nasreddin Hoca\u2019ya r\u00fcyas\u0131nda dokuz ak\u00e7e verirler. Hoca da yine r\u00fcyas\u0131nda \u2018dokuz de\u011fil, on ak\u00e7e olsun\u2019 diye kavga eder. Bu arada uyan\u0131r ve bakar ki eli bombo\u015f. Hemen uyumak i\u00e7in g\u00f6zlerini kapar ve elini uzat\u0131p, \u015f\u00f6yle der: \u2018Getirin, on de\u011fil, dokuz ak\u00e7e olsun.\u2019<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1784209986\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte iktidar\u0131n Orta Vadeli Program\u0131 da aynen bu tad\u0131 veriyor. Ortada ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yok, eldeki rakamlar \u00fczerinden s\u00fcrekli revize edilen bir hayal kuruyorlar, sonra da dalga ge\u00e7er gibi Babacan \u2018bir ekonominin do\u011fru rotada gidebilmesi i\u00e7in, istatistiklerin do\u011frulu\u011funun \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funa\u2019 vurgu yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015flerin o kadar ray\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kontrolden ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda ki Babacan bile s\u00f6ylediklerine inanm\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc filmin sonunu, konumu gere\u011fi direkt s\u00f6yleyemese de, biliyor. Fakat Nasreddin Hoca gibi b\u00fct\u00fcn milletin de r\u00fcyadaki paraya inanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>B\u0131rak\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bile \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6remedi\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te, 2015 \u2013 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 projeksiyonunu ortaya koymak, bundan ba\u015fka bir anlam ifade etmiyor. Hele ki istatistikler bu kadar do\u011fru (!) iken\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u015e\u00f6yle bir hedeflere bakal\u0131m. Y\u0131lsonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 3,3\u2026 Y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilemez oldu\u011fu bir \u00fclke \u00f6zelli\u011fimiz var. Zaten o nedenle de 2016 ve 2017\u2019ye standart y\u00fczde 5 yazm\u0131\u015flar. Nas\u0131lsa revize edince kimse bir \u015fey sormuyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu konjonkt\u00fcrde 3,3 bile hayal ama, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile a\u00e7al\u0131m. Madem \u00fcretim ekonomisi deniliyor, bunun i\u00e7inde sanayi \u00fcretiminin pay\u0131 ne olacak? Her sene oldu\u011fu gibi yerlerde s\u00fcr\u00fcnecekse anlam\u0131 yok.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l sonu cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi y\u00fczde 5,7\u2026 Oran\u0131 ge\u00e7in sadece Babacan\u2019\u0131n verdi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bile rakam 84 milyar dolar. Takriben d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131da be\u015fi cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fine g\u00f6re, oran\u0131 at kenara 70 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k eder. Belki buralar\u0131 bulmaz ama, 50 milyar dolar ve \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 kesin g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Soru \u015fu: Bunu hangi parayla finanse edece\u011fiz?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim program\u0131n ana hedefi oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenen enflasyona\u2026 Y\u00fczde 9,4 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Rekolte s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131, artacak kurun etkisi gibi, muhtemelen para ihtiyac\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 bas\u0131lacak TL gibi hi\u00e7bir etken ortada yok. Hadi bunlar\u0131n hepsi hayal\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2889186034\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bir \u00f6nceki hedef ne? Y\u00fczde 5,3\u2026 Revizyon sonras\u0131 durum ne? Y\u00fczde 9,4 enflasyon\u2026 Neredeyse 90\u2019l\u0131k bir hedef sapmas\u0131 var. Bunun getirdi\u011fi maliyeti ne yapaca\u011f\u0131z? \u0130\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fmaya de\u011fmez. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc istatistikler kar\u0131n doyurmuyor. Millet i\u015fsizlikten cay\u0131r cay\u0131r yan\u0131yor. K\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fcst\u00fcndeki sizin olsun.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tekrar d\u00f6n\u00fcp milli gelir ile orant\u0131lanan cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na mercek tutal\u0131m. Y\u00fczdeler g\u00fczel de, hesaplamada kur ne? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc e\u011fer milli geliri dolar kuru 1,5\u2019tan hesaplarsan\u0131z ba\u015fka, 2,30\u2019dan hesaplarsan\u0131z ba\u015fka bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar? \u2018Hangisi\u2019 deyip b\u0131rakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama s\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: Bu orta vadeli program da, t\u0131pk\u0131 di\u011ferleri gibi \u00e7\u00f6p\u2026 Bug\u00fcne kadar a\u00e7\u0131klananlar\u0131n bir tanesi bile hedefi tutturamad\u0131. Hayat\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fi zaten anlatm\u0131yor da, g\u00f6z\u00fcken o ki istatistik olarak bile tutturulam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Babacan ke\u015fke bunlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131na, son derece iyi bildi\u011fi ekonominin ger\u00e7ek halini anlatsayd\u0131. \u00dcstelik jeopolitik risklerden, FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kadar hi\u00e7bir etken de ger\u00e7ekten dikkate al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015f. AB\u2019nin parasal geni\u015flemesinin bizim i\u00e7in iyi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorsa, zaten ders de almam\u0131\u015f.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3700723005\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Babacan\u2019\u0131n da bildi\u011fi gibi, ger\u00e7ek tabloda durum \u00e7ok karanl\u0131k\u2026 Babacan\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise sadece Nasreddin Hoca hesab\u0131 g\u00f6zlerini yumup \u201ctamam dokuz ak\u00e7e olsun\u201d demek.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nasreddin Hoca\u2019ya r\u00fcyas\u0131nda dokuz ak\u00e7e verirler. Hoca da yine r\u00fcyas\u0131nda \u2018dokuz de\u011fil, on ak\u00e7e olsun\u2019 diye kavga eder. Bu arada uyan\u0131r ve bakar ki eli&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-36242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36242\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}