{"id":3618,"date":"2011-08-04T06:14:26","date_gmt":"2011-08-04T03:14:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3618"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:45:34","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:45:34","slug":"temmuz-enflasyonu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/temmuz-enflasyonu\/","title":{"rendered":"Temmuz Enflasyonu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de kamu bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi mali piyasalara yaramad\u0131. Haftan\u0131n\u00a0<span><strong>ilk<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0iki g\u00fcn\u00fcnde borsalarda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fand\u0131. Yaz\u0131ya oturdu\u011fumda New York borsas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Di\u011ferlerinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyordu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2124131299\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Euro b\u00f6lgesi Yunanistan\u2019la ba\u015flayan kamu borcu gerginli\u011fini bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc a\u015fam\u0131yor. \u0130rlanda, Portekiz derken s\u0131ra galiba \u0130spanya\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u0130talya\u2019ya geldi. Y\u00fckselen faizler bu \u00fclkelerin zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan kamu dengelerini b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u00a0<span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bir resesyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir mi? Bu kritik soru son g\u00fcnlerde s\u0131k seslendiriliyor. Pek\u00e2l\u00e2 olabilir. D\u00fcnya ekonomisini 2008 krizine g\u00f6t\u00fcren reel dengesizlikler yerinde duruyor. Ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminin sanc\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fini \u00e7ok s\u00f6yledik.<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>Para<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Politikas\u0131 Kurulu bug\u00fcn ola\u011fan takvimi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda toplan\u0131yor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00f6netimi k\u00fcresel sorunlardan rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. Al\u0131nacak kararlar iktisat politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu daha net g\u00f6rmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enflasyon Raporu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Temmuz enflasyon verileri d\u00fcn T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Sonu\u00e7lar piyasan\u0131n tahmininden daha olumlu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0<span><strong>T\u00fcketici<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f bekleniyordu. Y\u00fczde 0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yedi ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 3\u2019e geriledi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 6,3\u2019te kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en ay enflasyonu \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc iktisat\u00e7\u0131 kamuoyunda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma olu\u015ftu. Bir kesim ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyonun y\u00fckselece\u011fini savundu. Para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n acilen s\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdi.<\/p>\n<p>Ben di\u011fer kesimde yer ald\u0131m. Enflasyon \u00fczerinde talep k\u00f6kenli ciddi bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini anlatt\u0131m. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara girdim. Fiyat davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bakarken berber fiyatlar\u0131na kadar indim. Para ve maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2509426142\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131nlanan y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Enflasyon Raporu \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n esas metnidir. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n analizini kaps\u0131yor. Giderek i\u00e7eri\u011fi \u00e7ok zenginle\u015fti. Adeta kaliteli bir ders kitab\u0131 k\u0131vam\u0131na geldi. Haz\u0131rlayanlar\u0131 kutluyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Laf\u0131 uzatmayal\u0131m. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonda sorun g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2011 sonu i\u00e7in T\u00dcFE tahminini y\u00fczde 5,9 &#8211; 7,9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tuttu. Orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,9 oluyor. Benim tahminimle uyumludur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yeni bilgi var m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Verileri de\u011ferlendirirken \u00f6nce \u201cyeni bilgi var m\u0131?\u201d diye sorar\u0131m. O ama\u00e7la \u00f6nemsedi\u011fim alt serilere bakar\u0131m. Bunlara siz de a\u015finas\u0131n\u0131z. Biri kira kalemidir. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Hazirandaki y\u00fczde 4,4 d\u00fczeyinde sabit kalm\u0131\u015f. Olumlu haberdir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4225226147\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011feri \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondur (\u00d6KTG-I). Mevsim etkisi d\u00fczeltilince y\u00fczde 0,5 art\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Haziranla ayn\u0131d\u0131r. Tehlike i\u015fareti de\u011fildir. Bu arada temmuzda d\u00f6viz kurundaki hareketi de hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131d\u0131r. Bu y\u0131l g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert bir dalga vurdu. May\u0131sta y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 son iki ayda y\u00fczde 8,1 birikimli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izledi. \u015eimdi ne olur? G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 tekrar t\u0131rman\u0131r m\u0131? Konu \u00f6nemli ve ilgin\u00e7tir. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na girmek istiyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de kamu bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi mali piyasalara yaramad\u0131. Haftan\u0131n\u00a0ilk\u00a0iki g\u00fcn\u00fcnde borsalarda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fand\u0131. Yaz\u0131ya oturdu\u011fumda New York borsas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Di\u011ferlerinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. Euro b\u00f6lgesi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3618\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}