{"id":3609,"date":"2011-08-04T02:22:24","date_gmt":"2011-08-03T23:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3609"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:45:43","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:45:43","slug":"amerikan-ruyasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/amerikan-ruyasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Amerikan R\u00fcyas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

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$\"\"$ <\/a>Rusya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Vladimir Putin ,ABD’nin imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde krediyle ya\u015fayan bir \u00fclke oldu\u011funu ve borcunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde dinlendirdi\u011fini, ABD’nin dolar\u0131n monopol durumunu kullanarak, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde asalak gibi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. \u00a0Putin\u2019e hak vermemek elde de\u011fil keza; ABD\u2019nin kuruldu\u011fu 1776 dan bu g\u00fcne t\u00fcketim toplumu olarak nam salm\u0131\u015f ,hep masa \u00fczerinde kazanan \u00fclke olmu\u015ftur. \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya \u00a0Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tek galibi olan ABD , 1 temmuz 1944 g\u00fcn\u00fc 44 \u00fclkeden binlerce kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 ile ABD’nin New Hampshire eyaletine bagli Bretton Woods’ta IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n kurulmasina dair kararlar\u0131n alm\u0131\u015f ,yeni bir alt\u0131n para sisteminin kurulup, ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclen her ons alt\u0131n icin sabit 35 $ \u00f6demeyi ve daha sonra \u00fclkeler dolar\u0131 geri g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ayn\u0131 ons fiyat\u0131ndan alt\u0131n satmay\u0131 taahh\u00fcd etmi\u015fti. Sava\u015f ve k\u0131tl\u0131k y\u0131llar\u0131nda bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z paralar\u0131 d\u00fcnyadan alt\u0131n toplayarak geri alan ABD bu sayede \u00a0enflasyonunu da d\u00fcnyaya ihra\u00e7 eden ilk \u00fclke olmu\u015ftu. \u00a018 aral\u0131k 1971\u2019e kadar devam eden bu anla\u015fma Fransa\u2019n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na olan g\u00fcvensizli\u011fini dile getirip \u00fclkedeki dolarlar\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc iade edip alt\u0131n alma fikri ile bozuldu. Fransa\u2019n\u0131n rezervindeki t\u00fcm dolarlar\u0131 u\u00e7ak ile ABD\u2019ye do\u011fru yola \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 istihbarat\u0131 ile \u00f6\u011frenen ABD y\u00f6netimi ,daha u\u00e7ak havada iken \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya kar\u015f\u0131 anla\u015fmay\u0131 tek tarafl\u0131 bozarak Smithsonian Kararlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 devreye sokmu\u015f ons\u2019u %20 y\u00fckselterek 42.2 dolar yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu tarihten sonra sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler, ulusal paralar\u0131n\u0131 dolara endekslemeye son verdiler ama ellerinde hep dolar tutmaya zorunlu hale geldiler.\u00a0<\/strong>\u0130lerleyen y\u0131llarda hem i\u00e7erde hemde d\u00fcnya genelinde \u2018\u2019Amerikan r\u00fcyas\u0131\u2019\u2019 yarat\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130stanbul\u2019un ta\u015f\u0131 topra\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131n muadili bir zenginlik r\u00fcyas\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck, e\u015fitlik gibi kavramlarla t\u00fcketim toplumunu olu\u015fturdu. Zeitgeist\u2028belgeselinde anlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u00fcketim \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman zaman balonlar\u0131 da beraberinde getirdi. Amerika d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketim toplumu ve\u00a0 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olma \u00fcnvan\u0131n\u0131 elinde tutan Amerika\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcper g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimden ge\u00e7iyor. Yani, Amerikan ekonomisini ayakta tutan \u015fey, halk\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalar. Sistem t\u00fcketim \u00fczerine kurulu oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in t\u00fcketimi etkileyecek rersesyon gibi tehlikeler Amerika\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck korkusu.<\/span><\/h4>\n
BOR\u00c7 KR\u0130Z\u0130 S\u0130YAS\u0130 M\u0130?<\/h3>\n
ABD\u2019de Cumhuriyet\u00e7i kanat ,politik \u00e7\u0131karlar u\u011fruna hem ABD hemde d\u00fcnya ekonomisin fitilini ate\u015fledi. Demokratlar\u0131 vergilerin artt\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 hususunda bask\u0131 yaparak halk\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcne girmek istemeleri ile yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi siyasi prim yapma hamlesi ortada.Ger\u00e7i Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin yeni vergileri kabul etmeme gerek\u00e7eleri \u2018\u2019i\u015f imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor \u2018\u2019bahanesi olsada arkas\u0131ndaki gizli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce zenginleri koruyor imaj\u0131n\u0131 silmek olmal\u0131. ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin, 14.3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihten 2 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce, bor\u00e7lanma limitinin y\u00fckseltilmesi i\u00e7in krize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulma u\u011fra\u015f\u0131nda olan Beyaz Saray ile Kongre liderleri aras\u0131nda haftalard\u0131r s\u00fcren uzla\u015fma b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek 10 y\u0131lda 2.4 trilyon dolar azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ,bor\u00e7lanma limiti 2,1 trilyon dolar y\u00fckseltmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler ile Demokratlar aras\u0131ndaki \u00f6n anla\u015fman\u0131n onay\u0131n\u0131 verdi. E\u011fer kongre bor\u00e7lanma limiti artmas\u0131na izin vermeseydi , ABD Hazinesi temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fecek ve kredi notu d\u00fc\u015fecek ,CDS\u2019ler zirve yapacak, d\u00fc\u015fen not sayesinde artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na dert a\u00e7abilecekti. ABD bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131 sorununu a\u015ft\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131na ama piyasalarda uzun s\u00fcre unutulmayacak g\u00fcven zedelenmesine neden oldu. ABD gibi bir d\u00fcnya devinin bor\u00e7 hususunda bu kadar rahat,\u00f6nemsemez olup bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131 son dakikaya kadar b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 dolara olan g\u00fcveni bir kez daha y\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
YA\u015eLANAN N\u00dcFUS<\/span><\/h3>\n
ABD\u2019nin A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u00a0131 \u00a0milyar \u00a0$\u2019l\u0131k \u00f6demesi var. Ama \u00a0sonras\u0131nda \u00a0yeni \u00a0bor\u00e7lanma \u00a0yapamazsa\u00a0 ayl\u0131k \u00a049 milyar \u00a0dolarl\u0131k emekli \u00a0 maa\u015f\u0131 \u00a0 \u00f6demeleri ,ayl\u0131k \u00a03 \u00a0milyar \u00a0$\u2019l\u0131k\u00a0sivil \u00a0 savunma \u00a0transferleri ile\u00a0yine ayl\u0131k 14 \u00a0 milyar \u00a0dolarl\u0131k memur \u00a0maa\u015flar\u0131 \u00a0ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in hala \u00f6nemli bir sorun. 14.3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k borcun 10 trilyon dolar\u0131 kamu borcu. \u00dcstelik bu 10 trilyon dolar\u0131n i\u00e7inde sosyal g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6demeleride yok ,\u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sistem yeni kay\u0131t yapan sigortal\u0131n\u0131n priminin ,emekli \u00f6demesine ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerine kurulu. \u00dclke n\u00fcfusunun ya\u015flanmas\u0131 gelir gider hesab\u0131n\u0131n tutmamas\u0131na neden oluyor. Sigorta primi \u00f6deyenlerin azl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile emekli\u00a0 maa\u015f\u0131 hak edenler aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urum b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.ABD y\u00f6netimi ya\u2019\u2019 En az \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7ocuk\u2019\u2019 kural\u0131 \u00a0ya da emeklilik ya\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
REYT\u0130NG \u015e\u0130RKETLER\u0130 ACELE ETM\u0130YOR ,B\u0130R\u0130 HAR\u0130\u00c7<\/h3>\n
Tansiyon hastas\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z diyelim,s\u00fcrekli gitti\u011finiz aile doktorunuz var ,kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7ip oturuyorsunuz, y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fcze bakarken \u00e7ok iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorsunuz diyor .Sizde sigaraya ,alkole,ya\u011fl\u0131 yiyeceklere devam ediyorsunuz,VIX gibi strestesiniz var ,hi\u00e7 efor sarfetmiyor,spordan uzak duruyorsunuz .Bir gece y\u00fcksek tansiyondan acil\u2019de son nefesinizi verirken \u00a0doktorunuz\u00a0 \u2018\u2019biraz spor yap diyor\u2019\u2019. \u0130\u015fte kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak \u00fclkelere bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bu. ABD,CDS\u2019leri rekor \u00a0seviyelerden \u00a0i\u015flem \u00a0g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyor. ABD\u2019nin \u00a0Temerr\u00fct \u00a0riskinin \u00a0tahvilleri\u00a0 k\u0131sa \u00a0 vadeli \u00a0 riskleri art\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00a0sebebiyle 1 \u00a0 Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00a0 CDS\u2019lerin \u00a0 5 \u00a0 Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00a0 CDS\u2019lerden \u00a0 daha \u00a0 y\u00fcksek \u00a0 seviyelerde \u00a0 i\u015flem \u00a0 g\u00f6rmesine\u00a0 neden \u00a0oluyor.5 \u00a0Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00a0CDS\u2019ler \u00a090 \u00a0baz \u00a0puandan \u00a0i\u015flem \u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fcrken,5\u00a0Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00a0CDS\u2019ler \u00a065 \u00a0baz \u00a0puandan \u00a0i\u015flem\u00a0 \u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD ekonomisinin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde sadece %0.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131,ikinci \u00e7eyrekte beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n sadece %1.3 olu\u015fu da ortalama %2 lik dilimin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin durgunlu\u011fa girmesi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Global PMI uzun vadeli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda iken ,yeni sipari\u015fler de kritik 50 seviyesinin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 2008 krizi hemen \u00f6ncesi Lehman Brothers\u2019a AAA notunu veren kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131\u00a0 olas\u0131 temerr\u00fcd konusunda bu defa temkinli ama yava\u015f hareket ediyor. \u00d6nlerini g\u00f6remedikleri hususunda hep su\u00e7lanan reyting \u015firketleri bu kez ABD\u2019nin kredi notunun nas\u0131l korunaca\u011f\u0131na dair tavsiyelerini dile getirdiler ve acil \u00f6nlem almalar\u0131n\u0131 istediler. Reyting \u015firketleri kredi notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc 12 saat \u00f6ncesinden \u00fclke y\u00f6netimine bildirmek zorundalar . \u0130\u015fte bu 12 saat zarf\u0131nda \u00fclke y\u00f6netimi ile reyting \u015firketleri aras\u0131nda \u00f6zel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ,ikna \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Gelirlerini de\u011ferlendirdikleri \u00fclkelerden ve de\u011ferlendikleri \u015firketlerden alan bu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n karar\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme s\u00fcrecinde haliyle \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6sterebiliyor. En son Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kredi notunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bor\u00e7lar\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131m seviyesinin en alt\u0131na \u00e7eken,Portekiz\u2019in kredi notunu \u00e7\u00f6p olarak de\u011ferlendiren \u015firketler ABD\u2019nin k\u00f6t\u00fc harcama sorunlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda acele etmiyorlar. New york merkezli S&P, Moody\u00b4s Investors Service ve FITCH ,ABD\u2019nin kredi notunu AAA olarak aynen teyid ederken, ABD\u00b4nin mali pozisyonunu uzun vadede iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in hala daha fazla ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulayarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc negatif olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif olarak izlemede tuttular .\u00c7in kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Dagong ise daha radikal bir karar alarak ABD kredi notunu A+\u2019dan A- \u2018e downgrade etti. Dagong bu karardaki gerek\u00e7elerini, ABD\u2019nin ulusal \u00a0borcunun ekonomiden ve b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmekte oldu\u011fu ,\u00fclkenin alacakl\u0131lara olan ilgi ve g\u00fcvenli\u011finin gerilemesi, siyasi bir teminat eksikli\u011fi\u00a0,Demokratlar ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler aras\u0131ndaki siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerindeki ileri d\u00fczeydeki farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n olumsuz rol\u00fc ve kongre taraf\u0131ndan onaylanan a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesme program\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7 indirimi talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131,Federal bor\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibariyle GSY\u0130H a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini ve muhtemel QE3 denilen 3.parasal geni\u015flemenin ABD\u2019ye olan parasal g\u00fcveni bitirece\u011fini belirterek bu karar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc ; Obama taraf\u0131ndan taahh\u00fct edilen harcama k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, dolayl\u0131 olarak, ABD ekonomisinin daralmas\u0131 demektir ,ama unutmay\u0131n ABD\u2019nin harcamama gibi bir l\u00fcks\u00fc yok,\u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sistem t\u00fcketim \u00fczerine kurulu.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u00d6MER DEM\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n
Omerdemir123@gmail.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n
$\"\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rusya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Vladimir Putin ,ABD’nin imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde krediyle ya\u015fayan bir \u00fclke oldu\u011funu ve borcunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde dinlendirdi\u011fini, ABD’nin dolar\u0131n monopol durumunu kullanarak, d\u00fcnya…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3609\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}