{"id":35842,"date":"2014-09-18T10:09:51","date_gmt":"2014-09-18T07:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=35842"},"modified":"2014-09-18T10:09:51","modified_gmt":"2014-09-18T07:09:51","slug":"uzeyir-dogan-fed-sonrasi-piyasalarimizi-ne-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/uzeyir-dogan-fed-sonrasi-piyasalarimizi-ne-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dczeyir Do\u011fan &#8211; Fed sonras\u0131 piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ne bekliyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn beklenen Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2907905905\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fed faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlad\u0131 ancak bu sefer bu kavram\u0131n mekanik bir s\u00fcre ifade etmedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kan en \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7 ise bizce Fed \u00fcyelerinin gelecek d\u00f6nemlerdeki faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerinde art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Piyasada faizler konusunda \u00f6nceki tahminlere g\u00f6re bile iyimser bir fiyatlama yap\u0131l\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in tahminleri daha da yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesi Fed ile piyasa beklentisi aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 daha da a\u00e7t\u0131. Faiz beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine g\u00f6re yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da Fed\u2019in faizleri artt\u0131r\u0131rken kriterlerini daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hedeflere g\u00f6re belirleyece\u011fi \u015feklinde yorumland\u0131. 2015 sonu i\u00e7in tahmin edilen %1,375 (\u00f6nceki tahmin %1,125) faiz tahmini i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu nedenlerle Fed uzun s\u00fcre ifadesini tekrarlasa da a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ana fikrinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 var. Bunun yan\u0131nda \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131da ifade dilen kurumlara ters repo imkan\u0131 tan\u0131nmas\u0131 fikri de yak\u0131n bir zamanda uygulamaya girece\u011fe benziyor. Bu y\u00fczden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 faizler daha uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalacak \u015feklinde yorumlamamak gerekiyor. Bu nedenlerle de dolar uluslararas\u0131 piyasada de\u011fer kazanma s\u00fcrecine girdi. Kararlar\u0131n etkisinin BIST\u2019te daha sert hissedilmesinde ise piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerindeki stresin etkisi var. Bu streste, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kayna\u011fa duyulan y\u00fcksek ihtiyac\u0131n ve faiz hassasiyetinin yan\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki kredi notu de\u011ferlendirmeleri, jeopolitik risklerin artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, makro verilerdeki bozulma, siyasette genele yay\u0131lan gergin yap\u0131 gibi etkenlerin etkisi y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle bir s\u00fcredir ifade etti\u011fimiz gibi y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da endekste kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, kurlarda ve faizlerde y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin devam etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dczeyir Do\u011fan&#8217;\u0131n t\u00fcm yaz\u0131lar\u0131: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uzeyirdogan.com\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.uzeyirdogan.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn beklenen Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131. Fed faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlad\u0131 ancak bu sefer bu kavram\u0131n mekanik bir s\u00fcre ifade etmedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,876],"class_list":["post-35842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-uzeyir-dogan-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}