{"id":35305,"date":"2014-08-19T01:29:15","date_gmt":"2014-08-18T22:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=35305"},"modified":"2014-08-19T09:09:45","modified_gmt":"2014-08-19T06:09:45","slug":"denizin-bittigi-yer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/denizin-bittigi-yer\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Denizin bitti\u011fi yer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"NoSpacing\"><em><strong>El paras\u0131yla d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn bayram yapan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pili asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok uzun zaman \u00f6nce bitti. Konjonkt\u00fcr sadece borcu artt\u0131rarak \u00f6teleme olanaklar\u0131 sundu. Fakat gelinen noktada denizin bitti\u011fi \u00e7ok net belli oluyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4258152266\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme diye sunulan ger\u00e7e\u011finin dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ka\u00e7 temele g\u00f6z atmak bunun i\u00e7in yeterli. Bug\u00fcnlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekle \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fclen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, yani \u00f6z\u00fcnde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ithalat, yine bug\u00fcnlerde faiz lobisi olarak tu kaka ilan edilen s\u0131cak para ve sekt\u00f6rler \u00fcst\u00fc say\u0131l\u0131p motor s\u0131fat\u0131 tak\u0131lan in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Her ne kadar Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 Nihat Zeybek\u00e7i, Moody\u2019s\u2019in s\u00f6ylemlerinin umurlar\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylese de, e\u011fer ekonomik modelinizi bu kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sunaca\u011f\u0131 raporlarla gelen s\u0131cak paraya oturttuysan\u0131z, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tavr\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6nemi olmaz. Ancak komik duruma d\u00fc\u015fersiniz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ini\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n hi\u00e7bir anlam\u0131 yok. Zira yap\u0131sal bir tak\u0131m s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar \u00fczerine tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131yoruz. \u00dcretemezsek, ithalat\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, cari a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131yor; ama bu sefer de firmalar\u0131n hayatiyeti, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik gibi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">\u0130thalat \u00fczerinden al\u0131nan vergileri de hesaba katt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7mazlardan biri bu. Nitekim bedelli askerli\u011fi bile konu\u015facak noktaya gelmi\u015f olmam\u0131z, finansman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne denli zora d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn minik bir g\u00f6stergesi&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bedelli askerlik her zaman ekonominin a\u00e7maza d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc noktalarda g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">\u0130kinci ba\u015fl\u0131k s\u0131cak para ki, o \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha da azalarak \u015fiddetini hissettirecek. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131 ve \u00e7evrilme maliyeti o kadar artt\u0131 ki, Araplar\u2019dan gelecek 5 \u2013 10 milyar dolar \u00e7ark\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">FED kararlar\u0131 ve geli\u015fmeleri dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, burada faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n da Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n istedi\u011fi do\u011frultuda, ama ekonomik temeli, uygulanan politikaya tezat yakla\u015f\u0131mlarla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini hesaba katarak, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015foklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 tahmin edebilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Ben de bankalar vesayetinden ve y\u00fcksek faizden haz etmiyorum. Ama bunu, y\u0131llard\u0131r \u00fcretim ekonomisi diye ba\u011f\u0131ran, her g\u00fcn TV program\u0131n\u0131 \u2018\u015fartlar ne olursa olsun paran\u0131z\u0131 ticarete \u00fcretime yat\u0131r\u0131n&#8230;\u2019 diyen ben ele\u015ftirebilirim. Pa\u00e7ay\u0131 12 y\u0131l \u00f6nce kapt\u0131r\u0131p, \u00fclkeyi bu duruma sokanlar de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2164583001\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Gelelim in\u015faata&#8230; \u0130\u015fte orada i\u015fler hi\u00e7 yolunda de\u011fil. Y\u0131llard\u0131r topra\u011fa g\u00f6m\u00fclen milyon dolarlar, olu\u015fan arz fazlas\u0131 ve yanl\u0131\u015f proje yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla ciddi bir finansman ve talep eksikli\u011fi problemini ya\u015f\u0131yorlar. Bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki kan\u0131t\u0131 var. Birincisi ili\u015ftirilmi\u015f medyada \u00e7\u0131kan \u015fu haberde gizli:<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">\u201cRisk Merkezi verileri, bat\u0131k kredilerin sekt\u00f6rel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi. Bu y\u0131l ilk 5 ayda tasfiye olunacak kredilerin 11,7 milyar liras\u0131 bireysel kredilerden geldi. Bunu toptan perakende ticaret, motorlu ara\u00e7 servis hizmetleri 4,9 milyar, in\u015faat 3,6 milyar, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, tekstil sanayi 1,7 milyar, tar\u0131m 1,4 milyar, g\u0131da me\u015frubat sanayii 1,1 milyar, depolama ve haberle\u015fme 1,01 milyar lira ile y\u00fcksek tutarla takip etti.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Borcunu \u00f6deyemeyenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 da artt\u0131. Kredi kartlar\u0131yla birlikte ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 912 bin 839 ki\u015finin \u00f6deyemedi\u011fi kredi borcunu, 2014 ilk be\u015f ay\u0131nda 532 bin 81 ki\u015fi \u00f6deyemedi.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Arkada\u015flar faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7inde iktidara destek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, Merkez\u2019i yereyim derken b\u00fcy\u00fck de bir itirafta bulunmu\u015flar asl\u0131nda&#8230; Krediyi kullanacak olan bat\u0131k, sekt\u00f6r bat\u0131k, \u00f6deyemeyen say\u0131s\u0131 tavan yapm\u0131\u015f. Peki ikinci kan\u0131t ne?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-415252774\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Bir arkada\u015f\u0131n\u0131z sizden 150 bin TL bor\u00e7 istese ve 48 ay vade yap\u0131p, 2015 itibariyle \u00f6demeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u0131f\u0131r faiz verece\u011fini s\u00f6ylese yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131z ne olur? Yar\u0131n\u0131 bile g\u00f6remedi\u011finiz, riskli bir ekonomik ortamda ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir i\u015fadam\u0131 bunu kabul etmez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Ama bug\u00fcn in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bu \u015fartlarda daire sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gazete ilanlar\u0131yla duyuruyor. Bu hem nakite s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n, hem de arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi&#8230; \u00a0Diyeceksiniz ki, \u2018T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine g\u00fcven tam.\u2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Peki \u00f6yle olsa, yere g\u00f6\u011fe s\u0131\u011fd\u0131r\u0131lamayan, \u0130stanbul\u2019un su havzalar\u0131n\u0131, ormanlar\u0131n\u0131 yani ci\u011ferlerini yok etme pahas\u0131na imza at\u0131lan, asr\u0131n projesi (!), t\u0131pk\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc havaliman\u0131 gibi neden d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kredi bulam\u0131yor?<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Para Dergisi\u2019nin haberine g\u00f6re finansman i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonlanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f. Ziraat Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 6 yerli ve yabanc\u0131 sermayeli banka ilk etapta 4,5 milyar Avro kredi sa\u011flayacakm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">Di\u011fer bankalar belli de\u011fil? Lokomotif kim? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de tar\u0131m\u0131 finanse etmesi gereken kamu bankas\u0131&#8230; Ne garip? \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc k\u00f6pr\u00fcde de finansman kamudan sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Peki sormak gerekmiyor mu? Bunlar siyasi bask\u0131yla m\u0131 kredi veriyorlar, Basel kriterlerine g\u00f6re mi?<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\">S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: Denizin bitti\u011fi yerdeyiz. Daha da ac\u0131s\u0131 bir ka\u015f\u0131k suda bo\u011fulacak kadar bitkiniz. Vay benim \u00fclkemin haline&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"NoSpacing\"><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El paras\u0131yla d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn bayram yapan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pili asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok uzun zaman \u00f6nce bitti. Konjonkt\u00fcr sadece borcu artt\u0131rarak \u00f6teleme olanaklar\u0131 sundu. Fakat gelinen noktada denizin bitti\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-35305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35305\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}