{"id":35283,"date":"2014-08-17T17:44:58","date_gmt":"2014-08-17T14:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=35283"},"modified":"2014-08-18T17:16:13","modified_gmt":"2014-08-18T14:16:13","slug":"erol-gurcan-haftalik-ekonomi-raporu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-haftalik-ekonomi-raporu\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Haftal\u0131k Ekonomi Raporu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Ekonomideki ve Siyasetteki Dengeler A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Kritik D\u00f6nem<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3593285544\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>10 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 1. Tur se\u00e7imlerinde, Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan halk\u0131m\u0131z taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin 12. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ildi. Milletimiz ve \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in hay\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyorum. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda, Borsa \u0130stanbul, haftaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 1300 puan y\u00fckseli\u015f ve % 1.55 primle olumlu bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapt\u0131. Ancak, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Fitch&#8217;ten gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n etkisiyle BIST-100 endeksi haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde %2.43\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 77.271 puandan kapand\u0131. Endeks, haftan\u0131n geri kalan k\u0131sm\u0131nda haber ve veri ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na paralel olarak 76.800 \u2013 78.500 band\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD a\u00e7\u0131klanan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ile haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131; Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasaya k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa moral verdi. Di\u011fer taraftan, Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Putin&#8217;in, \u00fclkesi ile Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki gerginli\u011fi durdurabilmek i\u00e7in her\u015feyi yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 da piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan olumlu alg\u0131lanan bir di\u011fer geli\u015fmeydi.<\/p>\n<p><em>Kredi Derecelendirme Kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Gelen Ortak Mesaj Siyasi Risk Halen Y\u00fcksek&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imi sonras\u0131nda kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan arka arkaya de\u011ferlendirmeler geldi. Fitch, Standart &amp; Poors ve Moody\u2019s\u2019ten gelen mesajlar\u0131 \u015fu \u015fekilde toparlayabiliriz:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin kredi notuna do\u011frudan etkisi olmayacak<\/li>\n<li>Erdo\u011fan&#8217;\u0131n cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini kazanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de siyasi risk h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek,<\/li>\n<li>Politik riskler, potansiyel sermaye giri\u015flerinin cesaretini k\u0131rarak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin kredi notunda bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecek<\/li>\n<li>Siyasi riskin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin etkinli\u011fini ve politikalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fini azaltmas\u0131 kredi notunda negatif bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olabilir<\/li>\n<li>Siyasi kanad\u0131n faizlerin indirilmesi i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirmesi, bankan\u0131n kredibilitesini daha da zay\u0131flatabilir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Siyasi belirsizlik belirsizlikler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda AKP Genel Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7elik, 27 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc kongrenin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu kongrede se\u00e7ilecek ki\u015finin hem ba\u015fbakan hem genel ba\u015fkan olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Gelecek birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k vadede kimin ba\u015fbakan olaca\u011f\u0131, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminde ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 can al\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Babacan\u2019\u0131n yeni kabinede g\u00f6rev almayaca\u011f\u0131na ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair \u00e7ok fazla spek\u00fclasyon yap\u0131ld\u0131. Dileriz bunlar spek\u00fclasyon olarak kal\u0131r. Aksi halde; Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler, Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki zay\u0131f ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve jeopolitik risklerin s\u00fcrmesi gibi fakt\u00f6rlere bir de ekonomi y\u00f6netiminde radikal de\u011fi\u015fiklik eklenirse, \u00e7ok ciddi t\u00fcrb\u00fclanslar ya\u015fayabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><em>Makro veriler TCMB\u2019nin i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7eride Haziran ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve May\u0131s ay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik verileri takip edildi. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k Haziran ay\u0131nda 4.09 milyar dolar ile beklentilerden y\u00fcksek gelirken; May\u0131s ay\u0131 \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 % 8.8 ile son ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Ancak, mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n % 9.5 seviyesine y\u00fckselmesi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 1. \u00c7eyre\u011finden bu yana olu\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi bozulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00d6nceki hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon ve sanayi \u00fcretimi verilerinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve i\u015fsizlik verilerinin de \u00e7ok iyimser bir tablo \u00e7izmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 TCMB&#8217;nin faiz konusunda izleyece\u011fi politika anlam\u0131nda i\u015fini iyice zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2057765943\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><em>TCMB likidite s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>TCMB son d\u00f6nemde artan jeopolitik ve politik risklerin TL&#8217;de yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek ad\u0131na daha \u00f6nce de s\u0131kl\u0131kla kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131. Ocak ay\u0131ndaki sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla kullan\u0131lan likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ile piyasaya sa\u011flanan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini ge\u00e7en hafta boyunca, % 8.25 olan politika faizinin \u00fczerinde, % 8.29 seviyesine y\u00fckseltti. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131 halinde politika faizi \u00f6nemini yitirebilir ve k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015flere yol a\u00e7abilir. Likidite s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na gidilmesi ve makro verilerin son durumunu baz alarak TCMB\u2019nin bu ay faiz indirimine gitmesini beklemiyorum.<\/p>\n<p><em>Kritik tarihler 21 ve 27 A\u011fustos&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Janet Yellen\u2019\u0131n gelecek hafta Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma; Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla ilgili izleyece\u011fi politikaya ili\u015fkin verebilece\u011fi mesajlar nedeniyle son derece \u00f6nemli. \u0130\u00e7eride yo\u011fun bir veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftada siyasi geli\u015fmeler izlenmeye devam edecek. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da, ise ABD T\u00dcFE verileri ve Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri takip edilecek. Teknik olarak; 78.500 direncinin hacimli bir \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde endeks 80.600 seviyesine kadar bir y\u00fckseli\u015f; 76.800 deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde durumunda ise 75.400 seviyesine bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenebilir. Ancak, yukar\u0131da detaylar\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fimiz belirsizlikler nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te temkinli davranmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Zira, gelecek 2 hafta; Yellen\u2019\u0131n 21 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma, 27 A\u011fustos\u2019ta TCMB\u2019nin 27 A\u011fustos\u2019taki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan gelecek mesajlar ve ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn AKP\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc kongre g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; hem ekonomi hem siyaset a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok kritik bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7te oldu\u011fumuzu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2735680818\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 ve mutlu bir hafta olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Erol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomideki ve Siyasetteki Dengeler A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Kritik D\u00f6nem 10 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 1. Tur se\u00e7imlerinde, Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan halk\u0131m\u0131z taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin 12. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ildi. Milletimiz ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1352,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362],"class_list":["post-35283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35283\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}