{"id":3514,"date":"2011-08-02T09:55:50","date_gmt":"2011-08-02T06:55:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3514"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:46:42","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:46:42","slug":"kur-intibaki-ihracati-nasil-arttirir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kur-intibaki-ihracati-nasil-arttirir\/","title":{"rendered":"Kur \u0130ntibak\u0131 \u0130hracat\u0131 Nas\u0131l Artt\u0131r\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ihracatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili ve emek-yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlere faydal\u0131 olacak.<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-30426628\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonomimizi kendili\u011finden so\u011futacak termostat sistemi bu g\u00fcnlerde h\u00e2l\u00e2 devrede. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 (TL) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundan beri yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 de\u011fer kaybetti. Hareket devam ediyor. Teorik olarak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretilen her \u015fey bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri y\u00fczde 20 daha ucuzlad\u0131. Y\u0131llard\u0131r hep bunun ne kadar iyi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dinlemi\u015ftik. \u0130\u015fte \u015fimdi imtihan zaman\u0131 geldi. Kur intibak\u0131, s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi gibi, ihracat\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131? Bundan hangi sekt\u00f6rler faydalan\u0131r? Sonu\u00e7lar y\u00fcz\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fcld\u00fcr\u00fcr m\u00fc? Do\u011frusu ya, ben ayn\u0131 kan\u0131da de\u011filim. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na dayal\u0131 bir rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc kazanma stratejisinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili sekt\u00f6rler \u00e7e\u015fitlilik i\u00e7in iyidir ama onlara dayal\u0131 strateji olmaz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de olmaz. Gelin bak\u0131n neden b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum?<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrk sanayiinin yap\u0131s\u0131na hi\u00e7 bakt\u0131n\u0131z m\u0131? Bizim burada \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in ithalat yapmak gerekir. Hemen ikinci tespite geleyim: \u0130lk tespit, baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in di\u011ferlerinden daha fazla do\u011frudur. Bilgisayar ve elektronik \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ithal girdi oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 60\u2019a yak\u0131nd\u0131r. Mobilya \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindedir. Otomotivde y\u00fczde 30\u2019lar civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Tekstil ve haz\u0131rgiyimde ise y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. \u015eimdi TL de\u011fer kaybetse, hangi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fcretti\u011fi mallar daha fazla ucuzlayacakt\u0131r? Elbette ithal girdi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerin mallar\u0131 daha fazla ucuzlayacakt\u0131r. \u00dcretiminde yo\u011funlukla ithal girdi kullan\u0131lan mallar\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para cinsinden fiyatlar\u0131 TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan daha az etkilenecektir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc tespit ise \u015f\u00f6yle olsun: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yirmi birinci y\u00fczy\u0131la, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili mallar yerine orta teknolojili mallar ihra\u00e7 eden bir \u00fclke olarak girmesini sa\u011flayan sekt\u00f6rler \u00fcretimde yo\u011funlukla ithal girdi kullanan sekt\u00f6rlerdir. Bu ille de b\u00f6yle olmak zorunda de\u011fildir, ancak bu topraklarda b\u00f6yledir. T\u00fcrkiye ba\u015ftan beri sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir sanayi stratejisine ve yabanc\u0131 sermaye stratejisine sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in vaziyet b\u00f6yledir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131 g\u00f6stergeleri s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 marifet sanan \u00f6\u011frenci mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla tasarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in vaziyet b\u00f6yledir. Memleket seksen y\u0131ld\u0131r Allah\u2019a emanet bir bi\u00e7imde kendi kendine serpildi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00f6yledir.<br \/>\nH\u00e2l\u00e2 devam eden kur intibak\u0131 s\u00fcreci, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ihracat \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde olumlu etkileyecektir. Teknoloji yo\u011funlu\u011fu ve bu nedenle ithal girdi yo\u011funlu\u011fu y\u00fcksek olan sekt\u00f6rlerde, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 nedeniyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat avantaj\u0131 olu\u015fmayacakt\u0131r. Avrupa pazarlar\u0131nda ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n durumu ile ilgili olarak, TEPAV iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 2 tespiti \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6ncelikle Avrupa pazar\u0131, krizle birlikte, daralm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu gelecek y\u0131llarda da de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalacak gibi durmaktad\u0131r. \u0130kinci olarak daralan Avrupa pazar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili mallarda, y\u00fckselen G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinin rekabeti ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in ve Vietnam i\u015f\u00e7ili\u011fin ucuz oldu\u011fu ilk akla gelen \u00fclkelerdir. Orta teknolojili \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ise Orta Avrupa \u00fclkeleri rekabet avantaj\u0131na sahip g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Polonya ve Romanya gibi AB\u2019ye sonradan \u00fcye olan \u00fclkeler burada g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye ise ne tam \u00fcyedir ne de ucuz i\u015f\u00e7ilikte uzun s\u00fcreli rekabete dayanabilir. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ihracat \u00fczerindeki etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 hangi sekt\u00f6rlere faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r? D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili ve emek-yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlere. Avrupa pazar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in neden \u00f6nemlidir? \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n teknolojik i\u00e7eri\u011fini y\u00fckselten bir ithalat talebine sahip oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in. Bu iki tespit uyumlu mudur? Hay\u0131r. O vakit, i\u015fler iyi de\u011fildir. Peki, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek midir? Evet. \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olursa nas\u0131l k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecektir? \u0130thalat pahal\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ithalat azalacakt\u0131r. Yap\u0131sal bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayacakt\u0131r. Nas\u0131l artt\u0131ysa \u00f6yle azalacakt\u0131r. Bu arada, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi kontrols\u00fcz bi\u00e7imde olumsuz etkileyecek ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7ekme potansiyelini de do\u011frudan baltalayacakt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fin asl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir sanayile\u015fme stratejisi yoktur. Herkes kafas\u0131na g\u00f6re tak\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u201cSald\u0131m \u00e7ay\u0131ra, Mevlam kay\u0131ra\u201d dedi\u011fim tam da budur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ihracatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili ve emek-yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlere faydal\u0131 olacak.\u00a0 Ekonomimizi kendili\u011finden so\u011futacak termostat sistemi bu g\u00fcnlerde h\u00e2l\u00e2 devrede. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 (TL) ge\u00e7en&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3514\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}