{"id":3511,"date":"2011-08-02T09:53:57","date_gmt":"2011-08-02T06:53:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3511"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:46:48","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:46:48","slug":"yazilana-ve-cizilene-ozen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yazilana-ve-cizilene-ozen\/","title":{"rendered":"Yaz\u0131lana ve \u00c7izilene \u00d6zen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yaz\u0131lanlara, \u00e7izilenlere ve s\u00f6ylenenlere \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermekte yarar var.<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4156347598\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kamu borcuna milli gelire oranla bakmay\u0131 kan\u0131ksad\u0131k. Ekonomi kitaplar\u0131nda, bilimsel makalelerde, ekonomi bas\u0131n\u0131nda hep b\u00f6yle ele al\u0131n\u0131yor. Euro b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in bile borcun milli gelire oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r var. Ger\u00e7i bu s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n \u015fimdi hi\u00e7bir anlam\u0131 kalmad\u0131. Neyse bunun \u00f6nemi yok bu yaz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan.<\/p>\n<p><strong>E\u015fiklerin anlams\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ekonomist Shiller\u2019in ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn bir yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (www.project-syndicate.org). Borcun bir stok de\u011fi\u015fken (havuzda biriken suyun miktar\u0131 gibi), oysa milli gelirin bir ak\u0131m de\u011fi\u015fken (havuza belli bir zaman biriminde akan su) oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, borcu (y\u0131ll\u0131k) milli gelire b\u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde, lira cinsinden bir de\u011fi\u015fkeni, lira\/y\u0131l cinsinden bir de\u011fi\u015fkene b\u00f6lm\u00fc\u015f oluyorsunuz. Zaman\u0131, y\u0131l olarak de\u011fil de mesela bir \u00e7eyrek y\u0131l olarak al\u0131rsan\u0131z, bu oran\u0131 hesaplanan\u0131n d\u00f6rt kat\u0131 ya da on y\u0131l olarak al\u0131rsan\u0131z, hesaplanan\u0131n onda biri olarak bulursunuz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yazar\u0131n dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi, borcun y\u00fcksek\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 yarg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n nesnel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve baz\u0131 e\u015fik de\u011ferlerin anlams\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131. Borcun \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa dair ortal\u0131kta \u00e7ok say\u0131da tevat\u00fcr dola\u015fmaya ba\u015flay\u0131nca, giderek herkes borcun y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu durumda bor\u00e7lanma faizi art\u0131yor; bor\u00e7 daha da y\u00fckseliyor. Ortal\u0131ktaki raporlar ve de yorumlar bu kadar karamsar olmasa durum belki de b\u00f6yle olmayacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7oklu denge modeli\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Shiller\u2019in Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n durumundan yola \u00e7\u0131karak kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu yaz\u0131, 2001 krizinden sonra Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda (MB) ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131 bana. MB\u2019nin o zamanki duyurular\u0131 benzer uyar\u0131larla doludur. 27 A\u011fustos 2001 tarihli duyurudan bir al\u0131nt\u0131: \u201cOlumsuz iktisadi bekleyi\u015fler, sadece d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki hareketlerin iktisadi temellerden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131na ve giderek k\u00f6p\u00fck niteli\u011fine b\u00fcr\u00fcnmesine yol a\u00e7makla kalmamaktad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, alg\u0131lanan riskler artt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faiz oranlar\u0131 da y\u00fckselmektedir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7erisinde i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 stokunun ne kadar \u00e7evrilebilir oldu\u011fu sorusu da hep g\u00fcndemde kalmaktad\u0131r.\u201d MB, o tarihteki \u2018y\u00fcksek faiz-y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz kuru\u2019 ili\u015fkisine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bunun arkas\u0131ndaki temel neden olarak olumsuz iktisadi bekleyi\u015flere ve bu bekleyi\u015flerin kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak da i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 stokunun \u00e7evrilebilirli\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131yor. \u2018\u00c7evrilebilirlik\u2019ten kas\u0131t, y\u00fcksek kamu borcunun vadesi gelen k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n yeniden bor\u00e7lanarak \u00f6denip \u00f6denemeyece\u011fi. Merakl\u0131 okuyucular, \u00f6zellikle Temmuz 2001\u2013Aral\u0131k 2001 d\u00f6nemindeki MB duyurular\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da b\u00f6yle uyar\u0131 -yak\u0131nma da diyebilirsiniz- bulacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2088992460\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ktisat yaz\u0131n\u0131nda, Shiller\u2019in s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fi dinamikleri i\u00e7eren geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00e7ok say\u0131da model var. Ekonomik temellerde (mesela b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, enflasyon\u2026) hi\u00e7bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmasa bile, belirsizliklerin h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda \u201cKorkmay\u0131n, her \u015fey yolunda\u201d \u015feklinde birka\u00e7 deme\u00e7 bile, baz\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klara sahip \u00fclkelerde, \u201cB\u00f6yle deme\u00e7ler verildi\u011fine g\u00f6re ortada bir \u015feyler var herhalde\u201d alg\u0131lamas\u0131 do\u011furabilir. Bu durumda ekonomik birimler h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde o \u00fclkenin mali varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131p d\u00f6vize y\u00f6nelebilirler: Kur ve faiz artar. Bu \u00fclke kamu borcunun y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu, ama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fclke olsa bile, bu alg\u0131lamalar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda na\u00e7ar kalabilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar bu t\u00fcr modellere \u2018\u00e7oklu denge\u2019 modelleri diyorlar. Bir iyi denge var: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7 ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131. Bir de k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc: Y\u00fcksek faiz, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131. Siz biri h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcr\u00fcyor san\u0131rken \u00f6teki pusuda bekliyor. \u0130yi dengedeyken, ekonomik temellerde hi\u00e7bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, tetikleyici unsurlar\u0131n ekonomik birimlerin psikolojisini aniden de\u011fi\u015ftirmeleri nedeniyle kendinizi k\u00f6t\u00fc dengede bulabiliyorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7oklu dengeyi anlat\u0131rken kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m kamu borcu sorunu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yok. Bu yokluk, k\u0131ssadan hisse \u00e7\u0131karmaya engel olmamal\u0131: \u00d6zellikle ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yaz\u0131lanlara, \u00e7izilenlere ve s\u00f6ylenenlere \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermekte yarar var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yaz\u0131lanlara, \u00e7izilenlere ve s\u00f6ylenenlere \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermekte yarar var.\u00a0 Kamu borcuna milli gelire oranla bakmay\u0131 kan\u0131ksad\u0131k. Ekonomi kitaplar\u0131nda, bilimsel makalelerde, ekonomi bas\u0131n\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}