{"id":3508,"date":"2011-08-02T09:52:05","date_gmt":"2011-08-02T06:52:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3508"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:46:52","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:46:52","slug":"soklar-ve-piyasalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/soklar-ve-piyasalar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eoklar ve Piyasalar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Piyasalar, haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan genel se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan yurti\u00e7i ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u015fok ya\u015fad\u0131.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2101414690\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Genel se\u00e7imlerden sonra piyasalar\u0131 sarsan \u00e7e\u015fitli \u015foklar ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130lk \u015fok yabanc\u0131 bas\u0131ndan gelen ekonomiye ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131larla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve yabanc\u0131 bankalar\u0131n raporlar\u0131 da ekonomiyi sars\u0131c\u0131 \u015foklar yaratt\u0131. IMF\u2019nin tahminleri ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi ama cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131z kesmedi\u011fi en tehlikeli durumu yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ciddiydi. Bu de\u011ferlendirme, yorum ve raporlarda yer alan baz\u0131 analizler, say\u0131lar ve tahminler hatal\u0131 olsa da, tutars\u0131zl\u0131klar i\u00e7erse de bir \u015fey do\u011fruydu: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131 verici bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe do\u011fru h\u0131zla ilerliyor ve al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlere kar\u015f\u0131n durdurulam\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Olumsuz a\u00e7\u0131klamalar<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktidar partisinin yetkilileri harcamalar\u0131n yava\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulununca piyasa yeni bir \u015fokla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu. TL, yabanc\u0131 paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti ve faizler y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, kurlarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bizdeki geli\u015fmelerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. D\u0131\u015f piyasalarda da \u015foklar ya\u015fand\u0131. Yunanistan sorunu giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc, \u0130spanya ve Portekiz ekonomilerinin toparlan\u0131p toparlanamayaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r oldu, hatta yava\u015f yava\u015f \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n bu krizden ciddi bir darbe alabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Baz\u0131 yorumcular daha da ileri giderek eurodan vazge\u00e7ilmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD ekonomisi de \u015fok \u00fcretmekte geri kalmad\u0131. ABD Hazinesi, 14,3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na gelip dayand\u0131. Sistemin durma a\u015famas\u0131na geldi\u011fi saatlerde Kongre\u2019nin limiti 2,2 trilyon dolar y\u00fckseltmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde partiler aras\u0131nda \u00f6n anla\u015fma sa\u011fland\u0131. Aksi takdirde ABD\u2019de, bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin en b\u00fcy\u00fck karabasan\u0131 olan \u2018y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin kar\u015f\u0131lanamamas\u0131\u2019 a\u015famas\u0131na ge\u00e7ilecekti. Her ikisi de sorunlar i\u00e7inde k\u0131vranan iki rezerv para ekonomisinden g\u00f6reli olarak daha k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda olan euro b\u00f6lgesinin paras\u0131, ABD ekonomisinin bor\u00e7 krizini a\u015famamas\u0131 nedeniyle bug\u00fcne kadar dolara kar\u015f\u0131 prim yapt\u0131. Bu \u00e7alkant\u0131lar i\u00e7inde normalde dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 gereken TL ise hem euroya hem de dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti. Euroya kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 d\u0131\u015f dengelerle a\u00e7\u0131klanabilse de dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 i\u00e7 dengesizliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u015eok \u00fcst\u00fcne \u015fok<br \/>\n<\/strong>Ge\u00e7en hafta Ba\u015fbakan ve ard\u0131ndan da Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u2018durumun denetim alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu\u2019 s\u00f6yleyince piyasalar biraz duruldu ama ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, durumun pek de denetim alt\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Haftaya bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klarla ba\u015flanacakken son anda Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve kuvvet komutanlar\u0131, erken emekliliklerini istedi ve piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir \u015fok daha ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f oldu. Emeklili\u011fini istememi\u015f tek komutan olan Jandarma Genel Komutan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na atanmas\u0131yla kriz bir anlamda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc ve \u015fokun etkisi hafifledi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m saatlerde ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma krizinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz karar al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Partilerin liderleri, Obama\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 2,5 trilyon dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ko\u015fuluyla h\u00fck\u00fcmete 2,2 trilyon $ ek bor\u00e7lanma limiti tan\u0131yacak karar\u0131 Kongre\u2019ye g\u00f6t\u00fcrmek konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131. Ayda 125 milyar dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma yapan ABD Hazinesi i\u00e7in bu ek limit yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir rahatlama sa\u011flayacak.<\/p>\n<p>Aylard\u0131r ya\u015fanan \u2018dar bir k\u00f6pr\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f iki inat\u00e7\u0131 ke\u00e7i sendromunun\u2019 a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla, irrasyonelli\u011fin, yerini rasyonelli\u011fe b\u0131rakmakta oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Anla\u015fma karara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilirse Amerikan tahvillerini elinde bulunduran pek \u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, banka ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00f6neticisi bu gece rahat bir uyku uyuyabilecek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-365480680\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar, haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan genel se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan yurti\u00e7i ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u015fok ya\u015fad\u0131.\u00a0 Genel se\u00e7imlerden sonra piyasalar\u0131 sarsan \u00e7e\u015fitli \u015foklar ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130lk \u015fok yabanc\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}