{"id":3499,"date":"2011-08-02T09:43:13","date_gmt":"2011-08-02T06:43:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3499"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:47:01","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:47:01","slug":"ilk-yarida-dis-ticaret","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ilk-yarida-dis-ticaret\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130lk Yar\u0131da D\u0131\u015f Ticaret"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu y\u0131l yazl\u0131kta internet sorun\u00a0<span><strong>oldu<\/strong><\/span>. Wireless\u2019teki hata bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc bulunam\u0131yor. Keyfine g\u00f6re gelip gidiyor. Gerekli anlarda kesinlikle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. Murphy kanunu! Bu arada b\u00f6lgede 3G servisinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknolojiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonu b\u00f6yle&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3552072307\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m kadar ABD\u2019de kamu borcu tavan\u0131 y\u00fckseltiliyor. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenemedim. Bilek g\u00fcre\u015fini kimin kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kestiremiyorum. Pek \u00e7ok g\u00f6zlemci\u00a0<span><strong>gibi<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ben de bir \u015fekilde anla\u015fma sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordum.<\/p>\n<p>Mali piyasalar\u0131n komutanlar\u0131n istifas\u0131na tepkisini d\u00fcn g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u0130MKB az da olsa y\u00fckseldi. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 sakin seyretti. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda \u201cyar\u0131m dolar + yar\u0131m euro\u201d d\u00f6viz sepeti 2.04 TL civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. Piyasa memnun duruyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Enflasyon Raporuna bakacakt\u0131m. D\u00fczeltme tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor. Ancak yar\u0131n temmuz enflasyonunun a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlad\u0131m. Sonraya b\u0131rak\u0131yorum. Yerine d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7iriyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rekora devam<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bir anlamda d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri eskisi gibi ilgin\u00e7 de\u011fil. \u00dc\u00e7 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 be\u015f yukar\u0131 ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceden biliniyor. Sonbahardan bu yana ithalat\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 her ay yeni rekorlar k\u0131r\u0131yor. En az\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6yle ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n<p>Haziranda ihracat y\u00fczde 19 art\u0131\u015fla 11.4 milyar dolara, ithalat ise y\u00fczde 42 art\u0131\u015fla\u00a0<span><strong>21<\/strong><\/span>.6 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile ayl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 10.2 milyar dolar ile yeni bir rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 80 oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk yar\u0131 (ocak-haziran d\u00f6nemi) verileri ile devam edelim. \u0130hracat y\u00fczde 20 art\u0131\u015fla 66 milyar dolara, ithalat ise y\u00fczde 43 art\u0131\u015fla 120 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 90 art\u0131\u015fla 54 milyar dolara geldi. Tahmin ettiniz; bu da bir rekor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-241787730\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k verilere ge\u00e7elim. \u0130hracat y\u00fczde 15 art\u0131\u015fla 126 milyar dolara, ithalat ise y\u00fczde 37 art\u0131\u015fla 222 milyar dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 80 art\u0131\u015fla 96 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. S\u00f6ylemeye gerek var m\u0131; bu da bir ba\u015fka rekor.<\/p>\n<p>Be\u015f ay \u00f6nce, mart ba\u015f\u0131nda, mevcut konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn 2011\u2019de d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 110 milyar dolara ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcjdelemi\u015ftim. \u0130nand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 durmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Per\u015fembenin geli\u015fi \u00e7ar\u015fambadan bellidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nedeni ithalat<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nedenleri konusunda kamuoyunda ciddi kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc analiz etti\u011fim yaz\u0131 dizisinde buna de\u011findim. Sorunun ihracat yetersizli\u011finden de\u011fil, ithalat fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131m. ABD\u2019yi \u00f6rnek verdim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3298685775\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Say\u0131lara d\u00f6nelim. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye yak\u0131nd\u0131r. Yani ihracat milli gelirden iki kat daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n da \u00fczerindedir. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 kesimlerin ciddi bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<br \/>\nDemek ki sorun ihracat\u0131n artmamas\u0131 ya da az artmas\u0131 de\u011fildir. \u0130thalat\u0131n iki kat daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yani y\u00fczde 40 gibi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir d\u00fczeyde artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Geri planda ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli TL\u2019nin yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131k sa\u011f\u0131r sultan bile duydu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu y\u0131l yazl\u0131kta internet sorun\u00a0oldu. Wireless\u2019teki hata bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc bulunam\u0131yor. Keyfine g\u00f6re gelip gidiyor. Gerekli anlarda kesinlikle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. Murphy kanunu! Bu arada b\u00f6lgede 3G servisinin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}