{"id":3474,"date":"2011-08-01T12:23:22","date_gmt":"2011-08-01T09:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3474"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:47:42","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:47:42","slug":"risk-algilamalari-olumsuzlasmaya-devam-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/risk-algilamalari-olumsuzlasmaya-devam-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk alg\u0131lamalar\u0131 olumsuzla\u015fmaya devam ediyor&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Dikkatlerin<\/span>\u00a0Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nden, ABD bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 konusundaki geli\u015fmelere \u00e7evrildi\u011fi, belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini korudu\u011fu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacimleri ile bekle-g\u00f6r e\u011filiminin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. \u0130\u00e7eride ise bir yandan k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin, di\u011fer yandan s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleler ve olumsuz beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilecek istifalar\u0131n etkisini hissettik. \u0130\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da piyasalar dalgaland\u0131, sorunlar a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmaya devam etti, etkili ve yetkili kesimlerin hareket yetene\u011fi daralmaya devam etti. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimini terse \u00e7evirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3703838708\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD&#8217;den hafta sonunda gelen haberlere g\u00f6re Beyaz Saray ile Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde mesafe kat edilmi\u015f, bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131labilecek bir tasar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ciddiye al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir temel olu\u015fmu\u015f. Durumu izleyen bir yetkilinin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re harcamalarda uzla\u015f\u0131lmaz ve bu rakam\u0131 kongre \u00f6ncesi de 1.8 trilyon dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131karacak harcama kesintileri konusunda \u00f6zel yetkil ibir komite kurulacakm\u0131\u015f, vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde yokmu\u015f, imdilik kesin bir durum yokmu\u015f!.. Bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n bu veya benzeri \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren ekonominin durgunla\u015fma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ivmelendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 1.9&#8217;luk b\u00fcy\u00fcme sonras\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 1.3&#8217;l\u00fck ikinci \u00e7eyrek rakam\u0131, maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile birle\u015ftirildi\u011finde endi\u015felerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 veya y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini korumas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale geliyor. Zira para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da fazla gev\u015fetmenin gerekmesi ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc geni\u015fleme dalgas\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesi durumunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak fayda\u0131n olas\u0131 yan tesirlerden daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu da biliniyor. Para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n 3 y\u0131l gibi uzun bir s\u00fcredir gev\u015fek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kamayan ABD ekonomisinin stagflasyonist bir taboya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde ise dikkatler Yunanistan d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sorunlu \u00fcyelere \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti y\u00fckselmeye devam ediyor, \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n kredi notu ise tehlike sinyalleri veriyor. B\u00f6lge genelinde erken se\u00e7imlerin devreye girmesi, siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 tehlikesi ise olumlu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgenin genel enflasyonun y\u00fczde 2.5 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek k\u0131smi bir teselli yaratabilir, fakat bu durumun kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek pek ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmaz; euronun nispeten de\u011ferlenmesi bu sonucu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olabilir, ancak sorunlar\u0131n da yine ayn\u0131 nedenle seri bir \u015fekilde a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131&#8230; Rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc eriyen, artan sorunlu krediler nedeniyle mali sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u0131pranan, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc artan, durgunlu\u011fun a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenen b\u00f6lge \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa do\u011fru ko\u015far ad\u0131m gidiyor. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeydeki belirsizlik ve kr\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ciddi katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Olumsuzla\u015fma e\u011filimi sergileyen k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de alarm zillerini \u00e7ald\u0131r\u0131yor. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak sermaye hareketlerinin daralmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve neleri yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendik. Fakat stratejisini de\u011fi\u015ftirme esnekli\u011fi bulunmayan di\u011ferkesimler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerde gezindi\u011fi de biliniyor. S\u00f6zl\u00fc madahalelerin ise k\u0131sa vadeden \u00f6teye etkili olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaba katmak gerekyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ekonominin so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor, Ba\u015fbakan bu kez te\u011fet bile ge\u00e7meyecek diyor ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen geri al\u0131yor. Fakat haftan\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeni bir rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131 yetkilileri tekzip ediyor, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimi alevleniyor! \u0130stafalar ise alg\u0131lamalar\u0131 olumsuzla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle ya da b\u00f6yle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmek zorunda kalacak, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ekonomi durgunla\u015facak, i\u015fsizlik artacak, enflasyon s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecek, i\u00e7 talep daral\u0131rken b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek, ba\u015fta mali sekt\u00f6r olmak \u00fczere bilan\u00e7olar y\u0131pranacak&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00f6viz sepeti baz\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;nda ya\u015fanna de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 20&#8217;yi a\u015ft\u0131. Olumsuzla\u015fan k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar nedeniyle yerli \u00fcretimin rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcnde beklenen art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez iken net d\u00f6viz kredisi kullan\u0131m\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6zkaynaklar eridi, kredi itibar\u0131 geriledi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve beklentiler belki de d\u00fczelmemek \u00fczere bozuldu. \u0130n\u015faat, otomotiv gibi paran\u0131n devir h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve net sermaye giri\u015fine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlere ili\u015fkin belirsizlik iyice artt\u0131, bir yandan maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, di\u011fer yandan talebin daralmas\u0131 gibi olas\u0131l\u0131klar risk alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Mevcut ko\u015fullarda siyasi iradenin yeni tercihlerini hen\u00fcz bilmiyoruz, orta vadeli plan \u015fekillenmedi. Fakat bug\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n hem finansal istikrar, hem de fiyat istikrar\u0131 hedeflerinden birine odaklanmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar tercihin finansal istikrar lehine oldu\u011fu fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n ise temenni niteli\u011findeki aya\u011f\u0131 yere basmayan varsay\u0131mlara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Uzun s\u00fcredir dile getirdi\u011fimiz ger\u00e7ekleri dikkate almak zorunda kalmam\u0131z sert dalgalanmalar yaratabilir&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dikkatlerin\u00a0Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nden, ABD bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 konusundaki geli\u015fmelere \u00e7evrildi\u011fi, belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini korudu\u011fu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacimleri ile bekle-g\u00f6r e\u011filiminin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftay\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3474\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}