{"id":3467,"date":"2011-08-01T12:20:05","date_gmt":"2011-08-01T09:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3467"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:47:52","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:47:52","slug":"borsalarin-gucu-adina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/borsalarin-gucu-adina\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsalar\u0131n G\u00fcc\u00fc Ad\u0131na"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"divAdnetKeyword\">Haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u201cduygular\u201d \u00e7arp\u0131\u015facak. Bir yandan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm a\u015famas\u0131na gelmi\u015f ABD bor\u00e7 limiti meselesi, di\u011fer yandan bizdeki YA\u015e meselesi&#8230; ABD\u2019den gelen haberlerle euro\/dolar paritesinde dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. 1.4325 \u00f6nemli seviye. Alt\u0131na inilecek olursa 1.4075\u2019e kadar hareket ya\u015fanabilir<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2207854564\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130MKB\u2019nin performans\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadedeki olumlu performans\u0131 bizdeki hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 haftan\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda olumlu etkileyecek. Ancak haftan\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bor\u00e7 limitinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok da iyi bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemleriyle havan\u0131n yeniden olumsuza d\u00f6nme ihtimali y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n<p>Modern cumhuriyet tarihimizde ilk kez ordunun en \u00fcst kademelerinden b\u00f6ylesine bir \u201ckopu\u015f\u201d ya\u015fand\u0131! Bu kopu\u015f; devlet memurlar\u0131 ve ordunun \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma prensipleri a\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndan; yani kanun kitab\u0131na g\u00f6re; \u201cemeklili\u011fin istenmesidir\u201d. Di\u011fer yandan olay\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7i\u015fi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ise bu bir \u201cistifa\u201d olay\u0131d\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 anda Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Kara, Deniz ve Hava Kuvvet Komutanlar\u0131 g\u00f6revi b\u0131rakt\u0131lar! Tarihe ge\u00e7ecek bu karar, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 G\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcn dedi\u011fi gibi \u201cKendi \u00e7ap\u0131nda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir durumdur\u201d!<\/p>\n<p>Kulislerde bir s\u00fcredir konu\u015fuldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenen bu duruma belli ki siyasi iktidar haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131yd\u0131. Jandarma Genel Komutan\u0131 Necdet \u00d6zel \u00f6nce kara kuvvetlerine vekaleten atand\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan Y\u00fcksek Askeri \u015eura\u2019n\u0131n (YA\u015e) son g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na atanacak bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ortaya kondu. B\u00f6ylelikle YA\u015e\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcmden yap\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durumun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 engellendi. Bir anlamda kriz ya\u015fanmadan mesele \u201cge\u00e7i\u015ftirilmi\u015f\u201d oldu. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde meclisten ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanun h\u00fckm\u00fcnde kararname \u00e7\u0131karma yetkisinin, A\u011fustos sonuna kadar al\u0131nmas\u0131nda bug\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fanabileceklerin \u00f6ng\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin ilgin\u00e7 taraf\u0131 hem istifa haberlerinin, hem de \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinin\u201d piyasalar\u0131n kapanmas\u0131ndan sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yd\u0131! Ben buna \u201cborsalar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc ad\u0131na\u201d demeyi uygun buldum. Zira ekonomik ve siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin hi\u00e7 biri; piyasalar\u0131 yan\u0131ltan, bozan, piyasa d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 olarak an\u0131lmak istemiyor. Bu nedenle de Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve 3 kuvvet komutan\u0131 tarihe ge\u00e7ecek istifalar\u0131n\u0131, piyasalar kapand\u0131ktan sonra a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc bir kez daha anlam\u0131\u015f oluyoruz. Politik hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6nemli mihenk ta\u015flar\u0131ndan olmaya aday b\u00f6ylesi bir tav\u0131r bile, \u00f6nce borsalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasalar, politikac\u0131lar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar orduyu da \u201cesir alm\u0131\u015fa\u201d benziyor! G\u00f6lgelerin&#8230; Pardon, pardon borsalar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc ad\u0131na&#8230;!<\/p>\n<p>Askeri gelene\u011fi herzaman g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan \u00fclkemizde, ordunun y\u00f6netim kademesinin b\u00f6ylesi bir y\u00f6ntemle de\u011fi\u015fmesi normal bir zamanda olsayd\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 tedirgin edebilirdi. Ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar kapand\u0131ktan sonra gelen bu haber sonras\u0131nda hem YA\u015e\u2019\u0131n toplanabilecek olmas\u0131 hem de siyasi iradenin karar verme mekanizmas\u0131nda bir bo\u015fluk olu\u015fmas\u0131na izin vermeyecek \u015fekilde \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmi\u015f olmas\u0131\u201d piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu meselenin bir \u201cevent risk-olay riski\u201d alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ordunun \u00fcst kademesinin \u201cemekli olmas\u0131\u201d tek mesele olarak kalsayd\u0131; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.6780 seviyesinde kapanan dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131nda g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 1.6850\u2019lerin \u00fczerinde bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilirdi. Hatta 1.69-1.70 band\u0131n\u0131n test edilmesi de olas\u0131yd\u0131. Sonras\u0131nda \u2018H\u00fck\u00fcmet g\u00f6rev ba\u015f\u0131nda ve YA\u015e toplanabiliyor, o y\u00fczden de ortada \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyecek bir \u015fey yok\u2019 diyenler piyasalarda \u201cal\u0131c\u0131\u201d olacaklard\u0131. Benzer bir durum \u0130MKB\u2019de de ge\u00e7erli. 61.500 seviyelerine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme olsa da kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar 62.000-62.500 band\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in \u00e7aba sarfedeceklerdi!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Piyasalar ABD bor\u00e7 limitini daha fazla \u00f6nemseyecek<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3012485989\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131 as\u0131l ilgilendiren ordudaki istifalar de\u011fil, ABD\u2019nin \u201cbor\u00e7 limiti sorunu\u201d olacakt\u0131r. D\u00fcn bu yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 saatlerde bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm sath-\u0131 mahalline ula\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fine dair umutlar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Demokratlar\u0131n 2.8 trilyon dolarl\u0131k limit art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k acil ve 1.8 trilyon dolar da \u015e\u00fckran g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar haz\u0131rlanacak bir plan \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde kesintiye gidilecekmi\u015f. Bor\u00e7lanma limiti meselesinin anayasaya konulmas\u0131 konusunun halen daha tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak Obama y\u00f6netiminin bunu istemedi\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Krizin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri 2 A\u011fustos\u2019a (ya da ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin dayanabildi\u011fi son g\u00fcne kadar-baz\u0131 yorumlar 15 A\u011fustos diyordu) kadar bir orta yol bulunaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 belirttim. \u0130ki varsay\u0131m\u0131m vard\u0131. \u0130lki piyasalar\u0131n kesinlikle bir temerr\u00fct durumunu fiyatlamamas\u0131, ikincisi de t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyadan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7larla sistemini idame ettiren ABD\u2019nin var olan AAA notunu kaybetme l\u00fcks\u00fcn\u00fcn bulunmamas\u0131yd\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla bu sabah bu konunun ya \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ya da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme \u00e7ok yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, en fazla meselenin bir ka\u00e7 b\u00fcrokratik ad\u0131ma kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duymu\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6ylesi bir durumda ba\u015fta Uzakdo\u011fu piyasalar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm finansal piyasalar; \u00f6zellikle de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131pla kar\u015f\u0131layan ABD piyasalar\u0131 (vadelileri); bor\u00e7 limiti krizinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckutlayacaklard\u0131r.\u201d Uzakdo\u011fu borsalar\u0131 yukar\u0131 giderken, ilk a\u015famada dolar da ba\u015fta euro olmak \u00fczere bir \u00e7ok para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u201cduygular\u201d \u00e7arp\u0131\u015facak! Bir yandan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm a\u015famas\u0131na gelmi\u015f ABD bor\u00e7 limiti meselesi, di\u011fer yandan bizdeki YA\u015e meselesi&#8230; ABD\u2019den gelen haberlerle euro\/dolar paritesinde dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. 1.4325 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019dan dolay\u0131) \u00f6nemli bir seviye. Bunun alt\u0131na inilecek olur ise bu hafta i\u00e7inde 1.4075 seviyesine kadar bir hareket ya\u015fanabilir. Sonras\u0131nda 1.3935\u2019ten ge\u00e7en 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019ya kadar dolar de\u011fer kazanabilir mi? Senato\u2019dan ge\u00e7en plan\u0131n piyasalarca ne kadar inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bulundu\u011fu paritenin hareketlerine y\u00f6n verecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1407300292\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dolar\u0131n, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fim seviyelere \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Bu a\u015famada YA\u015e meselesiyle, ABD meselesini birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmamak gerek! Nas\u0131l ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z peki? \u0130yisi mi 1 dolar+1 euro sepetine bak\u0131n. 26 Temmuz\u2019da 4.2275\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kan sepet, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 4.1010 seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. 4.12 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7 dinamiklerin daha \u00e7ok \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (buna 10.2 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekleyebilirsiniz!) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131 ise d\u0131\u015far\u0131n\u0131n daha etkin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB\u2019nin hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki performans\u0131 da yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadedeki olumlu performans\u0131 (bir k\u0131sm\u0131 limit meselesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n y\u00fcksek kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeltmesinden kaynaklanan) bizdeki hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da haftan\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda olumlu etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak haftan\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda hem bor\u00e7 ABD\u2019de limitinin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok da \u201ciyi bir \u015fey\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan \u201ck\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7meyebilece\u011fi\u201d, bor\u00e7 limiti art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flamayabilece\u011fi gibi s\u00f6ylemlerle piyaslardaki havan\u0131n yeniden olumsuza d\u00f6nme ihtimali hayli y\u00fcksek! Bu noktay\u0131 bu hafta ak\u0131lda bulundurmakta fayda var!<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u201cduygular\u201d \u00e7arp\u0131\u015facak. Bir yandan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm a\u015famas\u0131na gelmi\u015f ABD bor\u00e7 limiti meselesi, di\u011fer yandan bizdeki YA\u015e meselesi&#8230; ABD\u2019den gelen haberlerle euro\/dolar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}