{"id":34126,"date":"2014-06-11T13:21:57","date_gmt":"2014-06-11T10:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=34126"},"modified":"2014-06-11T14:17:35","modified_gmt":"2014-06-11T11:17:35","slug":"erol-gurcan-is-bankasi-teknik-analizi-11-06-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/erol-gurcan-is-bankasi-teknik-analizi-11-06-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 Teknik Analizi &#8211; (11.06.2014)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ISCTR hissesine ait g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat grafi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, hisse fiyat\u0131nda Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir trend olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3441721596\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fiyat tepeleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ederken RSI tepelerinin bu fiyat hareketine uyum sa\u011flayamayarak negatif uyu\u015fmazl\u0131k olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Negatif uyu\u015fmazl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Fakat, trend de\u011fi\u015fiminden bahsedebilmek i\u00e7in indikat\u00f6r zerine \u00e7izmi\u015f oldu\u011fumuz y\u00fckselen trendin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek gerekmektedir.\u00a0Raporumuzun haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 11.06.2014 tarihi itibariyle piyasa de\u011feri 27.81 milyar TL olan ISCTR\u2019nin 1.19 X PD\/DD (Sekt\u00f6r Ortalamas\u0131: 1.23) ve 9.37 X F\/K (Sekt\u00f6r Ortalamas\u0131: 12.46) de\u011ferleri ile piyasa \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sekt\u00f6re k\u0131yasla ucuz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Orta vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ISCTR hissesinde, olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde 5.90 \u2013 6.05 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan al\u0131m yap\u0131larak 6.50 \u2013 6.70 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedeflenebilir. Belirtilen aral\u0131klardan al\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde orta vadeli en kritik destek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 5.75 TL zarar durdurma seviyesi olarak takip edilmelidir. Bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, hissede sert sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-34131\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/ISCTR1.png\" alt=\"ISCTR\" width=\"690\" height=\"465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/ISCTR1.png 746w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/ISCTR1-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 A.\u015e.,26.08.1924 tarihinde Mustafa Kemal Atat\u00fcrk taraf\u0131ndan; her t\u00fcrl\u00fc bankac\u0131l\u0131k i\u015flemini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek, ayr\u0131ca gerekti\u011finde s\u0131nai ve mali sekt\u00f6r alan\u0131nda her nevi te\u015febb\u00fcsler kurmak veya bu gibi te\u015febb\u00fcslere i\u015ftirak etmek amac\u0131yla kurulmu\u015ftur. \u00d6denmi\u015f sermayesi 4.5 milyar TL olan Banka\u2019n\u0131n kay\u0131tl\u0131 sermaye tavan\u0131 10 Milyar TL\u2019dir. 31.03.2014 tarihi itibar\u0131yla Banka hisse senetlerinin % 40.25\u2019ine T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 A.\u015e. Mensuplar\u0131 Munzam Sosyal G\u00fcvenlik ve Yard\u0131mla\u015fma Sand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Vakf\u0131, % 28.09\u2019una Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Atat\u00fcrk Hisseleri) sahiptir. Banka hisselerinin % 31.66\u2019l\u0131k b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc halka a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>31.03.2014 itibar\u0131yla, Banka\u2019n\u0131n, 1298\u2019si yurt i\u00e7inde 21\u2019i yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olmak \u00fczere toplam 1.319 \u015fubesi bulunmaktad\u0131r. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fubelerin 15\u2019i Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s T\u00fcrk Cumhuriyeti\u2019nde, 1\u2019i \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Londra, 1\u2019i G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n Batum, 1\u2019i Kosova\u2019n\u0131n Pri\u015ftine, 2\u2019si Irak\u2019\u0131n Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat, 1\u2019i de Bahreyn\u2019in Manama \u015fehirlerinde faaliyet g\u00f6stermektedir. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00c7in ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da temsilcilikleri bulunan Banka\u2019n\u0131n ba\u011fl\u0131 ortakl\u0131klar\u0131 \u0130\u015fbank Almanya Almanya\u2019da 13 \u015fubeyle, Hollanda, Fransa, \u0130svi\u00e7re ve Bulgaristan\u2019da 1\u2019er \u015fube ile, \u0130\u015fbank Rusya ise Rusya\u2019da 8\u2019i ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015fube olmak \u00fczere toplam 12 \u015fube ile faaliyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131, internet bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kullanan 2 milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n, mobil bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kullanan 1 milyona yak\u0131n ve Bankamatikten sunulan hizmetleri kullanan 8 milyonun \u00fczerindeki m\u00fc\u015fterisi ile dijital bankac\u0131l\u0131k alan\u0131nda liderli\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir. Sekt\u00f6rdeki mobil bankac\u0131l\u0131k hizmetlerini kullanan her 5 ki\u015fiden birinin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yap\u0131lan her 3 mobil bankac\u0131l\u0131k i\u015fleminden birinin \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fterileri taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.\u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 hisse senetleri Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da ve GDR(Global Depo Sertifikas\u0131) olarak Londra Borsas\u0131\u2019nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eirket sermayesini temsil eden paylardan A ve B grubu imtiyazl\u0131, C grubu adi hisse senetleri olup; toplam nominal sermayenin tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 C grubu hisseler temsil etmektedir. Her 3 hisse grubunun Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019daki i\u015flem miktar ve hacimleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; en y\u00fcksek likiditenin C grubunda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. A ve B grubuna ait hisselerde baz\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde herhangi bir i\u015flem dahi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemektedir. Bu nedenle teknik yorum k\u0131sm\u0131nda, ISCTR hissesi analiz edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131, konsolide olmayan 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemini 815 milyonTL net k\u00e2r elde ederek kapatt\u0131 (2013\/3 Ayl\u0131k:1.02 milyar TL). Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem itibariyle aktif b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2013y\u0131l sonuna g\u00f6re % 1.2 art\u0131\u015fla 213.0 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015fan (2013\/12:210.5 milyar TL)bankan\u0131n aktif toplam\u0131n\u0131n % 63.5\u2019i kredilerden olu\u015fmakta; 135.2 milyar TL tutar\u0131ndaki nakdi kredilerin (2013\/12: 134.84) % 72\u2019sini ticari krediler olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Gayri nakdi kredi hacmi ise 39.8milyarTL d\u00fczeyine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re, \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00fclkeekonomisine 175 milyarTL\u2019lik destek sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek sonu itibariyle, bankan\u0131n sorunlu krediler oran\u0131 % 1.8 ile sekt\u00f6r ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda bir seviyede olu\u015fmu\u015ftur. \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n mevduat hacmi 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131lsonuna g\u00f6re % 4.4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek 126.29 milyar TL seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131 (2013\/12: 120.98). Banka, sekt\u00f6rdeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc konumu, yayg\u0131n \u015fube a\u011f\u0131, alternatif da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m kanallar\u0131 ve zengin \u00fcr\u00fcn yelpazesi ile \u00f6zel bankalar aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 mevduat, Yabanc\u0131 Para mevduat ve vadesiz mevduat b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri itibar\u0131yla en y\u00fcksek pazar pay\u0131na sahip banka oldu.<\/p>\n<p>2014 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle TL cinsinden kredilerde pazar pay\u0131 %12.1 olan bankan\u0131n; Yabanc\u0131 Para cinsinden kredilerdeki pazar pay\u0131 ise %15.4 seviyesinde olup her iki kategoride de \u00f6zel bankalar aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan s\u0131ralamada birinci s\u0131rada yer almaktad\u0131r. \u00d6z kaynaklar\u0131 2013 y\u0131l sonuna g\u00f6re % 1.1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 23.31 milyar TL seviyesine gerileyen bankan\u0131n; \u00f6z kaynak k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 % 12.7 (2013\/12: 13.7), aktif k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise % 1.5 (2013\/12: % 1.6) seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca, bankan\u0131n, sermaye yeterlili\u011fi oran\u0131 % 12.3(2014\/02 Sekt\u00f6r Ortalamas\u0131: %16),takipteki krediler oran\u0131 ise % 1.8(2014\/02 Sekt\u00f6r Ortalamas\u0131 %2.81) seviyesindedir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2967476045\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2013 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda gerek i\u00e7 gerekse d\u0131\u015f dinamiklerdeki bozulman\u0131n faizlerde (di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle bankac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerinde) art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 nedeniyle, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na dair son derece k\u00f6t\u00fcmser beklentiler hakimdi. Ancak, a\u00e7\u0131klanan sonu\u00e7lar, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn hemen hemen tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re bir miktar daha negatif olsa da beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Bilindi\u011fi gibi TCMB, ge\u00e7en ayki Para Politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizinde 50 bp\u2019lik kademeli faiz indirimine gitmi\u015fti. TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerine \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde de devam etmesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc maliyetlerine olumlu etki edece\u011finden orta vadede sekt\u00f6re katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Buna ek olarak, TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 Haziran ay\u0131nda Bakanlar Kurulu\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunumda kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefi olan % 15 seviyesine yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu durumun, kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ilgili orta vadede ekstra tedbir al\u0131nmas\u0131 ihtimalini zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bundan dolay\u0131 da, orta vadede, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir di\u011fer art\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Di\u011fer yandan, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015fleyici \u00f6nlemler de, orta vadede fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaratabilecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde banka hisselerini destekleyebilecek fakt\u00f6rlerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin % 2.5 olarak hedeflendi\u011fi 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 1. \u00c7eyre\u011finde ekonominin % 4.3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmi\u015f olmas\u0131; reel kesimin ekonomiye olan g\u00fcvenini olumlu y\u00f6nde etkileyerek bankalara olan kredi talebini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ek olarak, son d\u00f6nemlerdeki faiz indirimi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n TMCB\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sorgulanmas\u0131na neden olabilecek seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131, yakla\u015fan Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Se\u00e7imleri nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek olas\u0131 siyasi gerginlikler, Fed\u2019in tapering program\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ilgili atabilece\u011fi olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar (Etkilerini muhtemelen 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na do\u011fru hissetmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z) ve Avrupa Ekonomisi\u2019ndeki deflasyon risklerinin bertaraf edilememesi gibi orta vadeli potansiyel riskleri de hat\u0131rlatmakta yarar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Erol G\u00fcrcan<br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman Yrd.<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2466043006\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ISCTR hissesine ait g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat grafi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, hisse fiyat\u0131nda Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir trend olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Fiyat tepeleri yukar\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1081,1077,1331,1316],"class_list":["post-34126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-hisse-senedi-arastirma-raporlari","tag-hisse-senedi-yorumlari","tag-is-bankasi-c-hisse-yorumlari","tag-isctr-hisse-yorumlari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34126\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}