{"id":33981,"date":"2014-06-05T21:41:56","date_gmt":"2014-06-05T18:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=33981"},"modified":"2014-06-06T00:05:50","modified_gmt":"2014-06-05T21:05:50","slug":"iki-uclu-avrupa-degnegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iki-uclu-avrupa-degnegi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130ki u\u00e7lu Avrupa de\u011fne\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizde indirime gitmesi ve parasal geni\u015fleme sinyali T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de finans \u00e7evrelerini sevince bo\u011fdu. En son s\u00f6yleyece\u011fimi ba\u015ftan s\u00f6yleyeyim ki, beklenti y\u00f6netiyorlar.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-760702171\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Draghi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda asl\u0131nda sat\u0131n al\u0131nmayan beklentinin sadece parasal geni\u015fleme oldu\u011funu g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Onun da vadesi belli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, net bir yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ama beklenti y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yeterli\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 boyutta de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor. Bunlardan birincisi mevduata verilen negatif faiz. Bu Avrupa pazar\u0131n\u0131n ne b\u00fcy\u00fck bir daralma i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funun net g\u00f6stergesi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bununla verilen mesaj,\u2019 para biriktirmeyin, harcay\u0131n\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupal\u0131 gibi \u00f6zkoruma duygusu geli\u015fmi\u015f bir co\u011frafyada bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131 olur mu, hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Ama bana kal\u0131rsa, Avrupal\u0131 yine de defansif davranacak, acil olmayan ihtiya\u00e7lardan imtina edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Meselenin ikinci boyutu ise parasal geni\u015fleme ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2026 Burada \u2018n\u0131n bu i\u015fe \u2018olur\u2019 vermeden, bir geli\u015fme olmas\u0131n\u0131 kimse beklemesin. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 FED gibi okumak hata olur.<\/p>\n<p>Zaten krizin en ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri \u00e7ok ba\u015fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve farkl\u0131 problemlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan \u00fclkelerin, de\u011fi\u015fik beklentilerinin kar\u015f\u0131lanmamas\u0131 nedeniyle a\u011f\u0131r hareket ediyor. B\u00f6ylesi bir geni\u015flemenin, Almanya lehine siyasi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmadan sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bu da zor bir karar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc konu ise bizimle ilgili\u2026 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeye gitme ihtimali, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar m\u0131? Diyelim ki, bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti? Yine de b\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00f6nemde para en son, en k\u0131r\u0131lgana gidecektir; bu bir.<\/p>\n<p>Ama beklentisi \u00e7ok i\u015f yapar. Finans \u00e7evreleri beklenti y\u00f6netmeye ve sevin\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131\u011fl\u0131klar\u0131 atmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 bile\u2026 Bu sayede borsay\u0131 80 bin s\u0131n\u0131ra dayay\u0131p, y\u00fckselece\u011fi imaj\u0131n\u0131 verip, yeni kurbanlar yaratmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1218682371\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Elbette borsa y\u00fckselirken, dolar\u0131n da 2,05 seviyesini zorlamas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00f6ylesi bir ortamda da y\u00fcksek de\u011ferden borsadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, bekledikleri 2,05\u2019ten dolar al\u0131p, \u2018g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcz\u2019 deyip el sallamalar\u0131 kolay olur.<\/p>\n<p>Yine diyelim ki parasal geni\u015flemeden T\u00fcrkiye pay\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131. Finans\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n o kadar g\u00f6z\u00fc d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f ki, \u2018dolar ya\u011facak\u2019 diye ba\u015fl\u0131k bile atanlar oldu. Oysa Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemesinde dolar de\u011fil avro gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da gideri dolar, geliri avro olan \u00fcreticinin ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n kemiklerini k\u0131rar, iflaslar\u0131 tetikler, bor\u00e7 \u00f6demelerini problemli hale getirir ve i\u015fsizlik tavan yapar. Ama inan\u0131n bana hi\u00e7biri umurlar\u0131nda de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bir f\u0131rsat buldular; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmese bile beklentisiyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in bunu f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Say\u0131lar\u0131 10 bini ge\u00e7meyen finans\u00e7\u0131lar, m\u00fc\u015fterileri ve elde edecekleri primler nedeniyle \u00e7ok mutlu. Biz kendi derdimize yanal\u0131m\u2026 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc her \u015fartta faturay\u0131 \u00f6deyecek olan biziz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3467759443\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizde indirime gitmesi ve parasal geni\u015fleme sinyali T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de finans \u00e7evrelerini sevince bo\u011fdu. En son s\u00f6yleyece\u011fimi ba\u015ftan s\u00f6yleyeyim ki, beklenti y\u00f6netiyorlar. Draghi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-33981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}