{"id":3385,"date":"2011-07-29T10:06:56","date_gmt":"2011-07-29T07:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3385"},"modified":"2011-07-29T10:06:56","modified_gmt":"2011-07-29T07:06:56","slug":"faizde-artis-ihtimali-azaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/faizde-artis-ihtimali-azaldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Faizde Art\u0131\u015f \u0130htimali Azald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>TL\u2019nin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesinin enflasyon \u00fczerinde istenmeyen etkileri olabilece\u011fini belirten Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u201cHi\u00e7 kimse T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu iddia edemez. TL \u00fczerinde ilave bir de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131 kesinlikle yok\u201d dedi. Enflasyon tahminleri yap\u0131l\u0131rken y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmezken Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 da, art\u0131\u015f ihtimalinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"font-size: 13px; font-weight: normal;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.hurriyet.com.tr\/p\/spacer.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"578\" height=\"10\" \/><\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"DivAdnetHaberDetay\">\n<div>\n<p>MERKEZ Bankas\u0131, enflasyon tahminlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmezken, Ba\u015fkan Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n seyri ve\u00a0faiz\u00a0konusundaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla piyasalar\u0131n en \u00e7ok merak etti\u011fi konularda mesajlar verdi. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fczerinde bir de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131 bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015fu anda\u00a0faiz\u00a0art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin ise 3 ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nu a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131p sorulara yan\u0131t veren Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, 2011\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin belirginle\u015fti\u011fini, geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmaya devam etti\u011fini kaydetti. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, yeni politika yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u00f6nceliklerinin fiyat istikrar\u0131 oldu\u011funu ama finansal istikrar\u0131 da g\u00f6zettiklerini kaydetti.<br \/>\n<strong>Kur taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulunmaz<br \/>\n<\/strong>\u201cKamunun kesinlikle hi\u00e7bir zaman, hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde kur taahh\u00fcd\u00fc yok\u201d diyen Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201cKurlarla ilgili taahh\u00fct verildi\u011finde ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za neler geldi\u011fini daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Fakat, piyasalarda finansal \u015foklardan dolay\u0131 bazen kurlar olmas\u0131 gereken temel de\u011ferden sapabiliyor. Bu iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar aras\u0131nda da tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir konu. Biz bunun olabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tecr\u00fcbesi de bunu g\u00f6steriyor.\u201d<br \/>\n<strong>TL\u2019ye de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131 yok<br \/>\n<\/strong>Bir soru \u00fczerine de TL\u2019nin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesinin enflasyon \u00fczerinde arzu edilmeyen katk\u0131lar\u0131 olabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7eken Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu: \u201cT\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli de\u011fil, hi\u00e7 kimse a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu iddia edemez. TL\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa yapabilece\u011fi azami katk\u0131y\u0131 da biz yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekten \u015funu ba\u015fard\u0131k; TL \u00fczerinde ilave bir de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131 kesinlikle \u015fu anda yok. Bizim benzedi\u011fimiz \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re TL y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde nispeten daha az de\u011ferli durumda.\u201d<br \/>\n<strong>Faiz\u00a0art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/strong>Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131,\u00a0faiz\u00a0art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u015fu an ihtimalin 3 ay \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ilave\u00a0faiz\u00a0art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131 g\u00f6rmediklerini ama faizi de bir ara\u00e7 olarak mutlaka bulundurmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, enflasyon tahmini yaparken de y\u0131l sonuna kadar\u00a0faiz\u00a0art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmediklerini ifade etti. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, bundan sonra al\u0131nacak tedbirlerin stok \u00fczerinden, daha az maliyetli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ek maliyet getirmeyece\u011fini de s\u00f6yledi.<br \/>\n<strong>\u0130yi ba\u015fkan kurdan konu\u015fmaz<br \/>\n<\/strong>Kurlarla ilgili soru \u00fczerine de Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u201cEn iyi merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 kurlarla ilgili konu\u015fmayan merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131d\u0131r. En fazla a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonla ilgili konu\u015fuyoruz\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi.\u00a0IMF\u2019nin gelecek y\u0131la ili\u015fkin y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019luk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini i\u00e7in, \u201cGenellikle bizim tahminlerimiz daha do\u011fruya yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0IMF\u00a0tabii \u00e7ok uzaktan bak\u0131yorlar, \u00e7ok da i\u015fin i\u00e7inde de\u011filler\u201d diyen Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131,\u00a0alt\u0131n\u00a0fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak da, fiyatlar 1000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0IMF\u2019den\u00a0alt\u0131n\u00a0alan\u00a0Hindistan\u00a0Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u00f6rnek verdi, ancak ba\u015fka da bir yorum yapmad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2269856414\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Ba\u015fbakan kadar g\u00fczel konu\u015fabilseydim siyaset\u00e7i olurdum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>BA\u015eBAKAN\u00a0Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u201cBu defa te\u011fet bile ge\u00e7meyecek\u201d s\u00f6zlerini de\u011ferlendiren Erdem Ba\u015fc\u0131, \u201cBen de o kadar g\u00fczel konu\u015fabilseydim siyaset\u00e7i olurdum. A\u00e7\u0131klamada, maliye politikas\u0131na vurgu var. Vatanda\u015fa mesaj anlam\u0131ndan da olumlu buluyorum. Bu t\u00fcr mesajlar \u015fu s\u0131ralarda faydal\u0131\u201d dedi. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u201cBen de \u00e7ok rahatlad\u0131m. Maliye politikalar\u0131yla ilgili demek ki iyi bir\u00a0habergeliyor. Orta Vadeli Program\u2019dan (OVP) \u00e7ok \u00fcmitliyim \u015fu anda. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki riskler kimsenin akl\u0131na hayaline bile gelmeyen konular.ABD\u2019de temerr\u00fct riski konu\u015fuluyor. Siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u015fliyor, herkes emin ki bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclecek. Avrupa\u2019daki problem biraz daha b\u00fcy\u00fck.\u00a0D\u00f6viz\u00a0al\u0131m ihalelerine ara verirken de ona at\u0131fta bulunduk. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de durum \u00e7ok iyi, gidi\u015fat \u00e7ok iyi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar son derece m\u00fckemmel toparlanm\u0131\u015f<br \/>\n\u015fekilde gidiyor. Bu durum \u00e7ok iyiyken i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz d\u00fcnya bir tak\u0131m risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u015e\u00f6yle bir avantaj var bizim i\u00e7in; dengeleyici y\u00f6nde politikalar uygulayabiliyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 6.9\u2019luk enflasyon tahmini de\u011fi\u015fmedi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon tahminlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Merkez\u2019in enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6.9 olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 5.9 ile y\u00fczde 7.9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131.<br \/>\n2012 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu i\u00e7in ise \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler, i\u00e7inde orta noktas\u0131 5.2 olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 3.5 ile y\u00fczde 6.9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi, orta vadede de y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fczeyinde istikrar kazanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu.<br \/>\nTahminler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlar 115 dolar olarak korunarak yap\u0131ld\u0131. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda g\u0131da enflasyonu varsay\u0131m\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.5 d\u00fczeyinde tutuldu.<br \/>\nTahminlerini olu\u015ftururken, maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131ld\u0131.<br \/>\nKredi\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 25 d\u00fczeyine indi\u011fi, politika faizinin de y\u0131l sonuna kadar sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve esas al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma da yok sert ini\u015f riski de<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ERDEM Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u00a0kredi\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden sonra \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d diye bir olay bulundu\u011funu ve bunun yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen fonlaman\u0131n ani bir \u015fekilde kesilmesi anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini anlat\u0131rken, \u201cAma ani bir duru\u015f olursa, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ani bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapabilir. Yani, eksilen fonlamay\u0131 birebir olmasa da birebire yak\u0131n bir \u015fekilde telafi edebilir\u201d dedi. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, bunu d\u00fczenli\u00a0d\u00f6viz\u00a0sat\u0131\u015f ihaleleri ve a\u00e7\u0131k piyasa i\u015flemleri ile piyasay\u0131 fonlayarak yapabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u201c\u015eu anda ekonomide a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir \u0131s\u0131nma g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorsak, bir sert ini\u015f riski de g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok iyi durumda olumlu y\u00f6nde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131r<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2727702647\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD\u00a0ve Avrupa\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri izlemeye devam ettiklerini s\u00f6yleyen Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin durumu ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7ok iyi \u015fu anda. Ama d\u00fcnya risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u015e\u00f6yle bir avantaj\u0131m\u0131z var, dengeleyici politikalar uygulayabiliyoruz.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi olumlu y\u00f6nde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilecek yetene\u011fimiz mevcut. Eskiden bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans oldu\u011fu zaman biz de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmek zorunda kal\u0131yorduk. \u015eimdi destekleyici hareket etme imkan\u0131m\u0131z var. Pazartesiden itibaren bu ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>kaynak<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.hurriyet.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/www.hurriyet.com.tr<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TL\u2019nin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesinin enflasyon \u00fczerinde istenmeyen etkileri olabilece\u011fini belirten Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u201cHi\u00e7 kimse T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu iddia edemez.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3385\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}