{"id":3382,"date":"2011-07-29T10:03:40","date_gmt":"2011-07-29T07:03:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3382"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:48:28","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:48:28","slug":"teget-meselesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/teget-meselesi\/","title":{"rendered":"Te\u011fet Meselesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu ara nedense bir kriz muhabbeti tutturduk gidiyoruz. Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131mda i\u015faret etti\u011fim gibi ekonomiyi ve piyasalar\u0131 s\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahalelerle y\u00f6nlendirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir gayret var.\u00a0 Bu \u00e7abalarda kantar\u0131n topuzu biraz ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in hedefi a\u015fan at\u0131\u015f (over shooting) diye tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar gibi oldu. Kurlar ald\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gitti. D\u00f6viz kurunu maniple edelim derken az daha alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yorduk.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-308175811\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Siyasi y\u00f6netimin tepesinden \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahale geldi. Say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan &#8220;kriz falan yok, d\u0131\u015far\u0131da olu\u015fan kriz bu defa bizi te\u011fet bile ge\u00e7mez&#8221; dedi. Ve i\u015f bitti.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sat\u0131rlar yaz\u0131l\u0131rken (per\u015fembe \u00f6\u011flen) dolar, Euro, sepet falan hepsinin hizaya girdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. S\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahelenin Ba\u015fbakan taraf\u0131ndan ters d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin etkisi o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu ki araya\u00a0 S&amp;P kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz de\u011ferlendirmenin\u00a0 girmesine ra\u011fmen adeta\u00a0 h\u0131\u00e7k\u0131r\u0131k gibi anl\u0131k bir etki d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir \u015fey olmad\u0131. Son s\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahale tam hedeften vurdu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bir s\u00fcre bu s\u00f6zellikten vazge\u00e7ece\u011fiz san\u0131r\u0131m. Ama tortusu kalacak gibi. Mesela, bir kez daha te\u011fet s\u00f6ylemine d\u00f6n\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ilgin\u00e7. Te\u011fet ge\u00e7me meselesi siyasetin\u00a0 kriz de\u011ferlendirmelerinde ba\u015f rol\u00fc oynar hale geldi. \u00dcstelik,\u00a0 kriz olarak alg\u0131lanan ko\u015fullar farkl\u0131 dinamikler i\u00e7erdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, her durumda\u00a0 te\u011fet s\u00f6yleminin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Te\u011fet s\u00f6yleminin baz\u0131 temel ko\u015fullar\u0131 var. Bunlardan birisi bizim d\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda bir iktisadi\u00a0 kriz olmas\u0131 ko\u015fulu. \u0130kinci bir ko\u015ful d\u0131\u015far\u0131da kriz varken\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece\u00a0 dengeli ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u00a0 olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ko\u015fullarda bizim ekonomimiz d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki olumsuzluktan \u00e7ok az etkilecek ya da hi\u00e7 etkilemeyecektir. D\u0131\u015far\u0131daki iktisadi krizin bizi te\u011fet ge\u00e7ecek olmas\u0131ndan kastedilen budur.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Te\u011fet s\u00f6yleminin tarih sahnesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 2008-2009 krizi ile oldu. Bu krizin temel karakteri itibariyle te\u011fet s\u00f6yleminin iki temel ko\u015fulunun sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu\u00a0 ko\u015fullar\u0131n birincisi bizim d\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda bir kriz olmas\u0131 ko\u015fuludur.\u00a0 O tarihte d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, derin ve yayg\u0131n bir iktisadi kriz vard\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3444558076\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 y\u0131llarda te\u011fet s\u00f6ylemine temel olan ikinci ko\u015ful da da mevcuttur. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi g\u00f6rece sa\u011flam ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bir darbe halinde\u00a0 hacimli bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya neden olacak ciddi bir sorun yoktur. Ger\u00e7i b\u00fcy\u00fcme biraz yava\u015flama e\u011filimindedir ama\u00a0 kamuda\u00a0 dengeye yak\u0131n bir durum vard\u0131r, bor\u00e7lanma oransal olarak d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimindedir. Enflasyon geriletilip, kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Banka sistemi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Tam te\u011fet olacak durum vard\u0131r anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak k\u00fcresel kriz o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, o kadar bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r ki te\u011fet i\u00e7in gerekli ilk iki ko\u015fulun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel kriz T\u00fcrkiyeyi\u00a0 te\u011fet ge\u00e7memi\u015ftir. Tersine, d\u00fcnya krizinin ekonomiyi vurdu\u011fu ilk d\u00f6nem olan 2008 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme negatife d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomi eksi 14.6 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ile dibe vurmu\u015f ve bu olumsuz durum azalarak da olsa sonraki iki\u00a0 \u00e7eyrekte de devam etmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 O y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 da negatiftir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2008-2009\u00a0 krizin ba\u011flam\u0131nda te\u011fet ge\u00e7me s\u00f6yleminin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1053459853\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Te\u011fet s\u00f6yleminin son \u00e7alkalanmalar nedeniyle tekrar g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fini biliyoruz. Ancak bu g\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullar te\u011fet s\u00f6ylemine pek uygunmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bir kere te\u011fet ge\u00e7me durumunun\u00a0 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n \u015fart ilk ko\u015fulun olu\u015fmas\u0131, yani bizim d\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda bir iktisadi kriz olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa ve ABD&#8217;de geli\u015fen olaylar\u0131 bir kriz olarak alg\u0131lamak durumu abartmak olur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ya\u015fananlar\u0131 siyasi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klardan etkilenen\u00a0 \u00e7alkant\u0131lar olarak de\u011ferlendirmek daha do\u011fru olur. K\u0131sacas\u0131, \u015fu s\u0131ralarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 bir kriz\u00a0 yok Te\u011fet s\u00f6ylemi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bizi te\u011fet ge\u00e7ecek bir durum olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir bu. Anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bu g\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131nda te\u011fet s\u00f6ylemini kullanmak pek anlaml\u0131 olmamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu ara nedense bir kriz muhabbeti tutturduk gidiyoruz. Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131mda i\u015faret etti\u011fim gibi ekonomiyi ve piyasalar\u0131 s\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahalelerle y\u00f6nlendirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir gayret var.\u00a0 Bu \u00e7abalarda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3382\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}