{"id":3371,"date":"2011-07-29T09:54:52","date_gmt":"2011-07-29T06:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3371"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:48:46","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:48:46","slug":"simdi-yabancilarin-onu-acilmis-midir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/simdi-yabancilarin-onu-acilmis-midir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eimdi Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00d6n\u00fc A\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f M\u0131d\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l \u2018Allah\u2019a emanet\u2019 bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fcyse, \u015fimdi de \u2018Allah\u2019a emanet\u2019 bir bi\u00e7imde kendili\u011finden, yava\u015flamaktad\u0131r.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4288366433\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn \u201cEndi\u015feye mahal yoktur ama tedirgin olmakta fayda vard\u0131r\u201d demi\u015ftim. Oradan ba\u015flay\u0131p, art\u0131k kur intibak\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 elden ge\u00e7irmeye ba\u015flayay\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn konusu b\u00f6yle olsun: Kur intibak\u0131, do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak m\u0131d\u0131r? \u0130ntibak\u0131n tamamlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, T\u00fcrkiye uluslararas\u0131 de\u011fer zincirleri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir yat\u0131r\u0131m alan\u0131 haline gelecek midir? K\u00f6t\u00fc kaderini de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f mi olacakt\u0131r? Do\u011frusu ya, ben emin de\u011filim. \u201c\u00c7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir memleketin yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131 nas\u0131l olur?\u201d bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7enlerde \u0130ngiliz Financial Times (FT) gazetesinde, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) y\u00f6neticilerinin k\u0131sa bir de\u011ferlendirme notu vard\u0131. BCG \u00f6nce bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelmi\u015fti, sonra gitti. Bug\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. BCG\u2019nin tespitine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, uluslararas\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan hak\u00e7a bir pay alam\u0131yor. \u00dclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131, siyasi istikrar\u0131, kamu borcunun milli gelir i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131, \u00fclkenin h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve bu arada t\u00fcketim kal\u0131b\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 gibi bir dizi de\u011fi\u015fkene g\u00f6re bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rakiplerine g\u00f6re daha az do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. \u00d6zellikle Amerikal\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelmiyorlar. T\u00fcrkiye, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 16. b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi ama Amerikan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok \u00e7eken \u00fclkeler listesinde 40. s\u0131rada. Durum, 2008\u2019de de b\u00f6yleydi. Buyurun, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda da b\u00f6yle. Benim en \u00e7ok ilgimi \u00e7eken, FT\u2019deki yaz\u0131da, BCG y\u00f6neticilerinin pastadan hak\u00e7a payla ilgili tespitiydi. Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m tutar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u015eimdilerde 6,6 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde olan do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m tutar\u0131 19,5 milyar dolara kadar y\u00fckselebilir. Bu durum cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 finansman\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in oldu\u011fu kadar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat yapabilme kapasitesini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, bunun i\u00e7in olumlu bir ortam var m\u0131? Var. Amerikan D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Clinton\u2019\u0131n \u0130stanbul ziyareti s\u0131ras\u0131nda en \u00e7ok duydu\u011fum mesele, T\u00fcrk ve Amerikan \u015firketlerinin ortakl\u0131klar kurmas\u0131 meselesiydi. \u00d6zellikle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik i\u015fbirli\u011fi konusu g\u00fcndemdeydi. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkelerle i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk-Amerikan ortakl\u0131klar\u0131 meselesini TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rifat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu\u2019nun Va\u015fington ziyareti s\u0131ras\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k olarak not etti\u011fimi hat\u0131rl\u0131yorum. Bu ilk tespittir.<\/p>\n<p>Geleyim ikincisine: Burada s\u00f6z konusu olan yaln\u0131zca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kocaman i\u00e7 pazar\u0131na yabanc\u0131 \u015firketleri almakla ilgili bir mesele de\u011fildir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin art\u0131k i\u00e7 pazar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yabanc\u0131 \u015firketlerden, sanayinin y\u00fcksek teknolojili d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne destek verecek bir dizi talebi olmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130hracat hedefi olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 zincirlerin par\u00e7as\u0131 olmakla ilgili bir stratejisi olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bir yabanc\u0131 sermaye stratejisi olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bir \u00fclkenin yabanc\u0131 sermaye stratejisi, \u201cNe olursan ol, yine de gel\u201d diye tasarlanamaz.<\/p>\n<p>Geleyim g\u00fcncel meseleye; kur hareketi yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir ortama yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Hareket tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TL) de\u011fer kayb\u0131, do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir yat\u0131r\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131d\u0131r. TL cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131n, i\u015f\u00e7ili\u011fin dolar cinsinden de\u011feri ucuzlamaktad\u0131r. Ancak bu noktada kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r aras\u0131ndaki politika diyalo\u011funun hali p\u00fcr melali ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131n istikrar\u0131 olumsuzluklar aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l \u201cAllah\u2019a emanet\u201d bir bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fcyse, \u015fimdi de yine \u201cAllah\u2019a emanet\u201d bir bi\u00e7imde, yani kendili\u011finden, yava\u015flamaktad\u0131r. Burada tedirginlik yaratmas\u0131 gereken husus, iktisat politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesine h\u00e2kim olan bu \u201cSald\u0131m \u00e7ay\u0131ra, Mevlam kay\u0131ra\u201d \u00fcslubudur.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u201cSald\u0131m \u00e7ay\u0131ra, Mevlam kay\u0131ra\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda radikal bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmemektedir. Umut \u015fimdilik Say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n \u201cOrta yolu buluruz\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndad\u0131r. Demek ki neymi\u015f? \u201cA\u011flamayan \u00e7ocu\u011fa meme vermezler\u201dmi\u015f. Atas\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in s\u00f6ylemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fudur: Say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n dikkatini \u00e7ekmeden sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmaz. Acaba bunun i\u00e7in gereken dalgalanman\u0131n boyutu ne kadard\u0131r? G\u00fcncel olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dikkat edilmesi gereken husus budur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l \u2018Allah\u2019a emanet\u2019 bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fcyse, \u015fimdi de \u2018Allah\u2019a emanet\u2019 bir bi\u00e7imde kendili\u011finden, yava\u015flamaktad\u0131r.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn \u201cEndi\u015feye mahal yoktur ama tedirgin olmakta fayda vard\u0131r\u201d&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}