{"id":3305,"date":"2011-07-28T12:12:39","date_gmt":"2011-07-28T09:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3305"},"modified":"2011-08-05T23:49:16","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T20:49:16","slug":"saskinlik-nasil-sonlanir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/saskinlik-nasil-sonlanir\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;\u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k&#8221; Nas\u0131l Sonlan\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin son g\u00fcnlerdeki i\u00e7erisinde &#8220;kriz&#8221;, &#8220;harcama k\u0131sma \u00f6nerileri&#8221; ta\u015f\u0131yan deme\u00e7leri, bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, borsan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi &#8220;\u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131klara&#8221; yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eimdi i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 bu \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n buna ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin nas\u0131l ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 soruyorlar. Bu \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131ktan kurtulabilmek i\u00e7in ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin uluslar aras\u0131 geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 hangi beklentiler i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu ve geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hangi \u00f6nlemleri alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 sonuca ba\u011fl\u0131 senaryoyla ortaya koymas\u0131 gerekir. \u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k ve belirsizlik ancak b\u00f6yle ortadan kalkar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2498850095\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde bir\u00e7ok i\u015fadam\u0131 dostum aray\u0131p, &#8220;Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi her \u015fey yolunda a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na niye son verip, kriz korkusu yaratt\u0131? Sahiden krize mi gidiyoruz?&#8221; sorular\u0131n\u0131 soruyorlar. Arada baz\u0131lar\u0131 &#8220;Siz de iyimser yorumlar yap\u0131yordunuz, tek uyar\u0131n\u0131z cari a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131&#8221; diye bir eklemenin ard\u0131ndan, &#8220;Peki \u015fimdi siz de mi kriz bekliyorsunuz?&#8221; diye soruyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Sohbet ilerledik\u00e7e son d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fen borsa, h\u0131zl\u0131 artan d\u00f6viz \u00fczerine sorular da y\u00f6netiyorlar. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin uyar\u0131 i\u00e7eren son deme\u00e7leri &#8220;\u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k&#8221; yaratm\u0131\u015f, &#8220;g\u00fcvensizli\u011fe neden olmu\u015f durumda\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bu sorularla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131mda bir yandan ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f nedenlerinin &#8220;\u0130ki k\u0131tadaki bor\u00e7 krizinin s\u00fcrmekte olmas\u0131yla&#8221; yak\u0131ndan ilgili oldu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131, bir yandan da IMF ve Fitch gibi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye de\u011ferlendirmelerindeki olumsuzlu\u011fa neden olan &#8220;cari a\u00e7\u0131k&#8221; uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da bunda etkili oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc belirtiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca, i\u00e7eride ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin TL&#8217;ye biraz de\u011fer kaybettiren, ithalat\u0131 azaltan, ihracat\u0131 art\u0131ran yeni bir dengenin pe\u015finde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum. Bununla d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenlemeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini belirtiyorum. Yeni bir denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7ersinde olundu\u011funu Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve BDDK \u00f6nlemlerinin tam olarak istenilen sonucu vermedi\u011fi, piyasay\u0131 yeterince so\u011futmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ithalata ve t\u00fcketime fren gelmedi\u011fini kamu bankalar\u0131nda kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bile y\u00fczde 27 ile istenilen y\u00fczde 25 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini bu nedenle ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin &#8220;Kontroll\u00fc kriz korkusu&#8221; yaratarak bir aray\u0131\u015fa girmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini belirtiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011fald\u0131r ki, bu bir\u00e7ok yeni soru ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmam\u0131 beraberinde getiriyor. &#8220;Dolar h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr m\u00fc? 2 liray\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr m\u00fc?&#8221;, &#8220;Al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler bizi krizden uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131?&#8221;, &#8220;Biz de istendi\u011fi gibi tasarrufa m\u0131 y\u00f6nelelim, yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan vaz m\u0131 ge\u00e7elim?&#8221; gibi bir\u00e7ok soru birbirini izliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Sohbetlerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8220;\u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k&#8221; ve onun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8220;belirsizlik&#8221; nedeniyle geli\u015fmelerin neler olaca\u011f\u0131, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin neyi ni\u00e7in s\u00f6yledi\u011fi, yeni d\u00f6nemde ne kararlar almas\u0131n\u0131n beklenebilece\u011fi aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda, bu \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011fa ve belirsizli\u011fe yan\u0131t bulabilecek ki\u015filerin bizler olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmelerine kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fadam\u0131 dostlar\u0131m\u0131z, belki ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ne yapmakta oldu\u011fu konusunda onlardan daha fazla bilgili olabilece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1555046570\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Oysa bu &#8220;\u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131na&#8221; son verebilecek ve belirsizli\u011fi giderebilecek olanlar sadece ekonomi\u00a0 y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7erisinde yer alanlar. O nedenle a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 onlardan beklemek gerekir. Bu d\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir senaryo olmayabilir. Geli\u015fmelere g\u00f6re iki ya da \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 senaryonun uygulamaya konulabilece\u011fi belirtilerek, bu senaryolar\u0131n temel \u00f6zellikleri a\u00e7\u0131klanabilirse, piyasalar\u0131n &#8220;\u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; ve onun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8220;belirsizlik&#8221; ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131labilir. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi esas itibariyle olumsuzlu\u011fun d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu i\u00e7eride pek sorun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununun da y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru dengelenece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. O nedenle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6zellikle Amerika ve Avrupa&#8217;da geli\u015fmelerle ilgili tahminleri ve onlara ba\u011fl\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemleri i\u00e7eren bir senaryolar paketine ihtiya\u00e7 var. \u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k da belirsizlikte ancak b\u00f6yle ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin son g\u00fcnlerdeki i\u00e7erisinde &#8220;kriz&#8221;, &#8220;harcama k\u0131sma \u00f6nerileri&#8221; ta\u015f\u0131yan deme\u00e7leri, bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, borsan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi &#8220;\u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131klara&#8221; yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eimdi i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 bu \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}