{"id":32853,"date":"2014-04-17T10:39:25","date_gmt":"2014-04-17T07:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=32853"},"modified":"2014-04-17T10:59:16","modified_gmt":"2014-04-17T07:59:16","slug":"merkez-bankasi-faizi-indirecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-bankasi-faizi-indirecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130smet Demirkol &#8211; Merkez Bankas\u0131 Faizi \u0130ndirecek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Bug\u00fcn Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n Genel Kurulu var. Piyasalar merakla Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n, faiz kara\u0131 \u00fczerine yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6ncelikle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6nelim.<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2672701736\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yellen, piyasalar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvercin konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Beklentiler ayl\u0131k 10 milyar $ tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131n\u0131 sonbahara kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ise Ekim 2014 itibari ile konu\u015fmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Muhtemelen 2015 ortas\u0131nda FED, faizleri y\u00fckseltecek gibi, en az\u0131ndan 0,25 bp art\u0131rabilir. Rusya cephesinde ise, siyasi tansiyon art\u0131yor. Ukrayna b\u00f6lgede riskleri yay\u0131yor izlenimini veriyor. \u015e\u00fcphesiz, risk ortam\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 Rusya ekonomisini olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkieyebilir ve sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Rusyadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u0131kan paran\u0131n BIST 100\u2019e girmesini beklentiler dahilinde s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Fakat T\u00fcrkiyede, A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imine kadar olan s\u00fcre\u00e7de ekonomik veriler nas\u0131l seyredecek ? \u0130\u015fsizlik, Cari A\u00e7\u0131k ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi nas\u0131l \u015fekillenecek ? Bu veriler, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli beklentilerini sat\u0131n al\u0131yor. S\u00fcre\u00e7 olumlu giderse BIST 100 endeksinde art\u0131\u015f devam edebilir, Uzun vade de ise hala soru i\u015fareti g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor .<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa da ise, Draghi deflasyon riki yok diyor. Fakat enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 istenilen d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil. Her ne kadar Mart ay\u0131 Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE, % 0.9 artt\u0131. Beklentiler ise % 0,5 artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi , Euro B\u00f6lgesinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ise, Mart da ayl\u0131k bazda %1.5 y\u00fckseldi. Beklenti % 0,5 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Ayl\u0131k enflasyon, ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, deflasyon riski halen Euro b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ufukta g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak faiz indiriminden yana tav\u0131r sergilemeyen Draghi, 1 tirlyon \u20ac\u2019luk yeni parasal geni\u015fleme karar\u0131n\u0131 bir m\u00fcddet daha erteleyebilir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hakim. Olas\u0131 parasal geni\u015flemenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda, T\u00fcrkiyeye sermaye giri\u015finin k\u0131sa vadede artmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu durumda Euro para biriminde gerileme, Dolar da ise y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi hakim olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 say\u0131n Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ekonomik ve siyasi geli\u015fmeleri dikkate alarak, faiz indirim karar\u0131n\u0131 verecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 faiz indirimi, Bankac\u0131l\u0131k karlar\u0131na ve yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetlerinin azalmas\u0131 sonucu, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye olumlu katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 yan\u0131nda, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve dolar\u0131n tekrar y\u00fckselmesine neden olabilece\u011fi gibi, faizlerde s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun devam etmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u015fsizlik ve b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinde riskleri y\u00fckseltmeye devam edece\u011fini dip not olarak belirtmekte yarar var.<em> <\/em><\/p>\n<p>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomist \u2013 Akademisyen<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"twitter-timeline\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"960\" data-dnt=\"true\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">Tweets by drismetdemirkol<\/a><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\nhttp:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n Genel Kurulu var. Piyasalar merakla Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n, faiz kara\u0131 \u00fczerine yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6ncelikle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6nelim. Yellen, piyasalar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvercin konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,917],"class_list":["post-32853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-ismet-demirkol-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}