{"id":32779,"date":"2014-04-14T22:07:33","date_gmt":"2014-04-14T19:07:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=32779"},"modified":"2014-04-14T23:48:35","modified_gmt":"2014-04-14T20:48:35","slug":"iki-soru-yaniti-degistirir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iki-soru-yaniti-degistirir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u0130ki soru yan\u0131t\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Haftasonunda Ekonomi Gazetecileri Derne\u011fi \u00fcyeleri olarak 10. Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019nde TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rifat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu ile bulu\u015ftuk. TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik iki ba\u015fl\u0131kta tespitlerini ve beklentilerini aktard\u0131.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-888681132\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Birinci b\u00f6l\u00fcmde d\u00fcnya ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik kritik bilgiler vard\u0131. \u0130\u015fte biz t\u00fcrban\u0131, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kim olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015furken d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yedi ba\u015fl\u0131k:<\/p>\n<p>Finans haritas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Ticaretin kurallar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Enerji haritas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ekonomide \u015fehirler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00dclkeler aras\u0131 rekabette giri\u015fimcilik ana unsur oluyor. \u0130nternet, ekonominin belkimi\u011fi haline geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na\u202622 May\u0131s 2013 tarihinde FED\u2019in yeni para politikas\u0131yla birlikte s\u0131cak para devri bitti. Yani bundan sonra eski al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klardan vazge\u00e7mek \u015fart. Bulunabilirse paran\u0131n \u00e7ok maliyetli oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6neme giriyoruz. Nitekim 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 3 ay\u0131nda verilen 16 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sadece 8 milyar dolar giri\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131 bunun kan\u0131t\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yine \u00f6zellikle \u00fczerinde durmak istedi\u011fim ba\u015fl\u0131k enerji haritas\u0131\u2026 Bu konuda yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 sene \u00f6nce yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m kayagaz\u0131 unsurunun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ne yaz\u0131k ki T\u00fcrkiye meseleyi daha yeni tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; potansiyeline ra\u011fmen. Ama dengelerin buradan etkilenme ihtimali g\u00fcndemi me\u015fgul ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bizde yerle yeksan olan orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ana ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan biri oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 5 milyara ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen n\u00fcfusun ekonomiden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay bug\u00fcnden \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda tam 3 kat\u0131 art\u0131yor. Orta s\u0131n\u0131ftaki bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme \u015fehir ekonomilerine de dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu\u2019nun verdi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyada 600 \u015fehirde 1,5 milyar insan ya\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda ekonominin i\u00e7inde 600 \u015fehrin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay y\u00fczde 60\u2019a ula\u015facak. Kritik bir konu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Yine \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131klardan biri de internetin ticarette \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektronik ticaretin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay sadece y\u00fczde 1. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de oran y\u00fczde 14. TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u2018T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu oran\u0131 ge\u00e7mesi laz\u0131m ki, etkinlik olu\u015fabilsin\u2019 diyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3909643968\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yaln\u0131z s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 \u015fu: D\u00fcnyan\u0131n 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde konu ile ilgili yapmas\u0131 gereken altyap\u0131 maliyeti 57 trilyon dolara ula\u015f\u0131yor ve 30 trilyon dolar kaynak ihtiyac\u0131 ortada duruyor. Yani kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok. Peki d\u00fcnya bunlar\u0131 konu\u015furken, biz neyi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz? Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 kim olacak? \u0130\u015fte TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 da buna isyan ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu\u2019nun anlatt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne\u2026 Orada T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi vard\u0131. \u0130\u015fte size baz\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar: B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kalitesinde bozulma var. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,1, ihracat\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 ise s\u0131f\u0131r. Protestolu senet ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7eklerde azalma g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor ki, piyasan\u0131n ger\u00e7ekleriyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Bunu TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019na sordu\u011fumda asl\u0131nda bir ba\u015fka tehlikeyi de yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde fark\u0131nda olmadan i\u015faret etti. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n yerini kredi kart\u0131 ald\u0131. Doldurun alt\u0131n\u0131 doldurabildi\u011finiz kadar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bankalara isyan elbette ortada, yap\u0131sal sorunlar da varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Ama cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan \u00e7ok bunun finansman\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir problem olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda duruyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 67\u2019e ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve bu durum da TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ifadesiyle ithalat\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1175651503\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir de katma de\u011fer meselesi var elbette. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta kilogram ba\u015f\u0131na kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 para 1,6 dolar\u2026 Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 4,1 dolar, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin 2,7 dolar, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n 3 dolar ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n da 3,8 dolar. Gelin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131n i\u015fin i\u00e7inden\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Hadi bir \u00e7\u0131kmaz sokak daha vereyim. Y\u00fcksek teknoloji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin ihracattaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczdesel ifadelerle, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de 28, Malezya\u2019da 44, \u00c7in\u2019de 27, Rusya\u2019da 7, Hindistan\u2019da 8, Brezilya\u2019da 11. Peki bizde ne? Sadece y\u00fczde 3.<\/p>\n<p>Ticaret alan\u0131m\u0131z da tehlikeyi i\u015faret ediyor. Brezilya 10 bin 254 kilometrelik alanda ticaret yap\u0131yor. Meksika 4 bin 574 kilometre. Peki biz? 2 bin 846 kilometre\u2026 E\u011fitime bakal\u0131m. 162 OECD \u00fclkesi i\u00e7inde, 80\u2019lerde beraber yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z G\u00fcney Kore matematikte be\u015finci, biz 44\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc; fende Kore yedinci, biz 43\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc. okumada G\u00fcney Kore alt\u0131nc\u0131, biz 41\u2019inci ve \u0130ngilizce kullan\u0131m\u0131nda Kore dokuzuncu, biz 116\u2019\u0131nc\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 e\u011fitim sisteminin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi ileri ta\u015f\u0131yamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde duruyor. Kamu ihalelerinin y\u00fczde 93\u2019\u00fcnde yerli \u00fcretim tercih edilmiyor. \u0130\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerinde 100 TL birim fiyatla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ki\u015finin \u00fcreticiye maliyeti eklenmi\u015f rakam\u0131 ne?<\/p>\n<p>ABD\u2019de 117 TL, Almanya 160 TL, \u0130ngiltere 149 TL ve T\u00fcrkiye 172 TL. Yani ne i\u015fveren memnun, ne de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u2026 \u015eimdi hepsini alt alta koydu\u011fumuzda ortadaki sorun g\u00fcn gibi kendisini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ama b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden i\u015fsizli\u011fe, enflasyondan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7eklere resmi rakamlar\u0131 kullanarak konu\u015fmak ilkesini benimseyen TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 burada kendi ile \u00e7eli\u015fkiye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hal b\u00f6yle iken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de her \u015fey yolunda\u2026 Bu \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fck potansiyeline ben de inan\u0131yorum, ama bu yap\u0131yla onun de\u011ferlendirilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu kendisine iki soru sorsa, belki daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir analiz yapabilecek.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi son 50 y\u0131l gibi mi olacak, yoksa el mi de\u011fi\u015ftirecek? \u0130kincisi T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in rakamlar\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor mu? Bu iki soruya ger\u00e7ekten yan\u0131t verirse, ortaya \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir foto\u011fraf \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi takdirde t\u00fcm olumsuzluklara ra\u011fmen, sanal rakamlarla, ula\u015f\u0131lamayacak hayaller kurmak s\u00f6z konusu olur. O zaman da her \u015feye ra\u011fmen ihracat ve \u00fcretim yapanlar\u0131n, bug\u00fcne kadar oldu\u011fu gibi yine kemikleri k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Zira yakla\u015fan krize, do\u011fru bilgilendirmeyle girmemi\u015f olurlar. Reel sekt\u00f6r umut ederim, inanmak istedikleriyle de\u011fil, ger\u00e7eklerle y\u00fczle\u015ferek yar\u0131n\u0131 kurgular. Yoksa vay \u00fclkemin haline\u2026<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Haftasonunda Ekonomi Gazetecileri Derne\u011fi \u00fcyeleri olarak 10. Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019nde TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rifat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu ile bulu\u015ftuk. TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik iki ba\u015fl\u0131kta tespitlerini&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-32779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32779\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}