{"id":32722,"date":"2014-04-11T08:46:50","date_gmt":"2014-04-11T05:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=32722"},"modified":"2014-04-11T08:51:55","modified_gmt":"2014-04-11T05:51:55","slug":"seans-oncesi-borsa-yorumu-moodys-gorunumu-duragandan-negatife-cevirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-borsa-yorumu-moodys-gorunumu-duragandan-negatife-cevirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi Borsa Yorumu \/ Moodys G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Dura\u011fan&#8217;dan Negatife \u00c7evirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn Borsa \u0130stanbul y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bundaki en \u00f6nemli etken \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn FED tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla, ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusundaki&#8230;<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2596649717\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32723\" alt=\"bist100-11-nisan-2014\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/bist100-11-nisan-2014.png\" width=\"453\" height=\"289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/bist100-11-nisan-2014.png 453w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/bist100-11-nisan-2014-300x191.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn Borsa \u0130stanbul y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bundaki en \u00f6nemli etken \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn FED tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla, ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusundaki endi\u015felerin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda endeks en y\u00fcksek 73.500 seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra g\u00fcn boyunca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli bir trend olu\u015fturdu. Fakat genelde 73 bin etraf\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketler yapt\u0131. Seans i\u00e7inde olu\u015fan sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sebebi ise, o s\u0131rada \u00f6zellikle Avrupa borsalar\u0131na sat\u0131\u015f gelmesi ve Moodys a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, risk almak istemeyenlerin satmak istemesiydi.<\/p>\n<p>Modoys&#8217;ten bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyordum. Moodys notumuzu teyit ederken, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dura\u011fan\u2019dan negatife d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Birinci sebep; artan politik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve toplumdaki kutupla\u015fman\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenini sarst\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu durumun kurlardaki volatiliteden g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve bunun 2015 ortalar\u0131na kadar devam edece\u011fini belirtti. \u00a0Yani yabanc\u0131 sermayenin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in, bu \u015fartlarda \u00e7ok istekli olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130kinci sebep; artan politik risklerle birlikte, yava\u015flayan yap\u0131sal reformlar d\u0131\u015f k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131racak. Moodys, 2014 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.5, 2015 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor ve sermaye giri\u015flerinin seviyesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Notumuzu teyit etmelerinin sebebi olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kamu dengeleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik yap\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu an asl\u0131nda bir k\u00e2r realizasyon d\u00f6nemi ya\u015f\u0131yorduk. Teknik olarak, h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finin ard\u0131ndan dinlenme yapan bir endeks g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flem miktar\u0131 581 milyon lot olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yani son 2-3 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem miktarlar\u0131ndan biriydi. 93 bin seviyesinden, 61 bine kadar \u00e7izilen bir fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme analizine g\u00f6re, BIST-100 endeksi y\u00fczde 38.2 olarak belirlenen 73.500 civar\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. Moodys karar\u0131 etkisiyle bug\u00fcn olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte 72 bin veya alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Gelecek hafta i\u00e7inde, 70 bin seviyesi destek olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bu seviye hem psikolojik, hem de 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n oldu\u011fu seviyedir. Endeksin 70 bine kadar gerileme yapmas\u0131, zirve seviyeye g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4-5 aras\u0131nda bir d\u00fczeltme olur. Orta vadeli (en az 6 ay s\u00fcre i\u00e7in) al\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f olanlar i\u00e7in izlenebilecek en do\u011fru strateji, \u00e7ok fazla al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u015flerine girmeden, beklemede kalmakt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu\u011funda, zarardaysalar sab\u0131rla 3-5 ay ve hatta daha fazla beklerken, y\u00fckseli\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda her a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6necek korkusu ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in, biraz k\u00e2r g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinde ve sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 geldi\u011fi anda, satabilmektedirler. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc beynimizin i\u00e7erisindeki yaz\u0131l\u0131m bunu emrediyor. Bu t\u00fcr bir sendrom ya\u015fayanlar, en az\u0131ndan bu sefer, 70 bine ve hatta 69 bine kadar gerileme olabilece\u011fini bilerek beklemede kal\u0131rlarsa, beynin bu yaz\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 stresi hafifletmi\u015f olurlar. Ama \u201c\u015fimdi satay\u0131m, nas\u0131l olsa endeks 70 bine d\u00fc\u015fecekmi\u015f, oradan al\u0131r\u0131m\u201d diyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bilsinler ki, ipin ucu ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 andan itibaren yapacaklar\u0131 her i\u015flemden zarar edeceklerdir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ay \u201cbekle-kazan\u201d ortam\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde endeksin bir s\u00fcre 70 bin ile 74 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu dalgalanmalar sonras\u0131nda endeksin 70.500-70.750 civar\u0131nda dip yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda, 75 bin \u00fczerine kendini atmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Fakat, elbette ki, 70 bine kadar bir d\u00fczeltme garantisi verilemez. Belki de haftaya endeks 74 bin direncini k\u0131r\u0131p 77 bine do\u011fru gidebilir. Ama bu seviyeyi vermemin sebebi, orta vadeli al\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f olanlar\u0131n bu t\u00fcr bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131 i\u00e7indir. Yoksa, \u015fimdi sat\u0131n ve 71 binden al\u0131n demiyorum. Bu ciddi bir strateji hatas\u0131 olur. Bu sabah d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda hava olumsuz. ABD endeksleri olumsuz kar a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yapt\u0131. S&amp;P500 endeksi y\u00fczde 2&#8217;den fazla de\u011fer kaybederek kritik deste\u011fi olan 1835 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Asya cephesinde borsalar ortalama y\u00fczde 0.60 gerilerken Japonya y\u00fczde 2.29 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da.\u00a0Bizim borsam\u0131z\u0131n da y\u00fczde 1 veya 1.5 civar\u0131nda gerileme yapmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Fakat bu durum, daha \u00f6nce al\u0131m yapmam\u0131\u015f olanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Tahvil ve bono piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn g\u00f6sterge faiz \u00e7ok sert bir gerileme yaparak 9.83 seviyesine kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn Moodys karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6sterge faizin yeniden y\u00fczde 10 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. Fakat \u00f6nemli olan 10.50 seviyesinin yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmemesidir. Bug\u00fcn tahminen 10.00 ile 10.60 aras\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn Borsa \u0130stanbul y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bundaki en \u00f6nemli etken \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn FED tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla, ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusundaki&#8230; D\u00fcn Borsa \u0130stanbul y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,954,715],"class_list":["post-32722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-canli-webinar","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32722\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}