{"id":32451,"date":"2014-04-02T13:39:29","date_gmt":"2014-04-02T10:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=32451"},"modified":"2014-04-02T20:32:51","modified_gmt":"2014-04-02T17:32:51","slug":"likidite-riskine-dikkat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/likidite-riskine-dikkat\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130smet Demirkol &#8211; Likidite Riskine Dikkat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>2013 senesi ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 ile ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 K\u00fcresel Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikiye ay\u0131rmak gerekiyor. 2013 ilk 6 ayda k\u00fcresel piyasalar 4 b\u00fcy\u00fck Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n Varl\u0131k Al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye devam etmesi ile ge\u00e7ti ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7de, likidite ba\u015fta T\u00fcrkiye olmak \u00fczere Geli\u015fen Piyasalara ak\u0131n etmeye devam etti. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2642150728\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sermaye giri\u015flerinin artmaya devam etti\u011fi ilk alt\u0131 ayda, gerek \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r gerekse kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 devam etti\u011fi gibi, kur riski ve likidite sorunu ilk alt\u0131 ay \u00e7ok fazla hissedilmedi. Ancak, 22 May\u0131s ak\u015fam\u0131 FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernankenin varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7de azaltabilir mesaj\u0131n\u0131 ilk defa telaffuz etmesi, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen ekonomilerde sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ile birlikte likidite sorununu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Yaln\u0131z burada dikkat etmemiz gereken en \u00f6nemli husus, FED\u2019in May\u0131s 22 sonras\u0131 yeni politikas\u0131nda tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki azaltma karar\u0131n\u0131 18 Aral\u0131k tarihine kadar hayata ge\u00e7irmeyip, 2013 senesinin son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, Ocak 2014 itibari ile tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 10 milyar $ azalt\u0131yorum karar\u0131d\u0131r. May\u0131s 2013 \u2013 Aral\u0131k 2013 aras\u0131 tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131nda azaltma karar\u0131 bekleyen geli\u015fen piyasalar bu s\u00fcre\u00e7de 2 trilyon $\u2019l\u0131k sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na maruz kald\u0131 ve 2014 de ise bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ilerki aylarda devam edecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7 de ise FED\u2019in 2014 y\u0131lsonuna kadar kademeli olarak varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131 ve tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rmas\u0131 sonucu ba\u015fta geli\u015fen piyasalar olmak \u00fczere nakit y\u00f6netimi ve likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki \u00f6nemli risk olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve enflasyon riski ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan \u00fclkelerde d\u00f6viz kurunda y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam etme ihtimali nedeniyle \u015firketlerde likidite sorununun artaca\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131la giriyoruz. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, k\u00fcresel finans krizinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llarda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ekonomik de\u011feri 60 trilyon piyasa de\u011feri ise 600 trilyon $ civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019de ba\u015flayan Mortgage Krizinin etkisi ile, likidite sorunun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 sonucu, 2,6 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k ilk iflas Bearn Sterns yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131ndan geldi. Ard\u0131ndan Basis Capital, Absolute Capital ile devam eden s\u00fcre\u00e7, Fannie Mae ve Freddie MAC\u2019in devlet deste\u011fi ile kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kamula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ile devam etti. Lehman Brothers\u2019\u0131n iflas\u0131 ise k\u00fcresel finans krizindeki likidite sorunu daha da artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise 2014 i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olarak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 143 milyar $\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz borcu ve 65 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finans sorunu olarak g\u00f6z\u00fckmekte. \u00c7ok basit bir ifade ile bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki finans ihtiyac\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r borcu ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 208 milyar $ olarak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Kamu borcu ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 22 milyar $ civar\u0131nda . Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 2014 sene sonuna kadar 230 milyar $ sermaye giri\u015fine ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var. Ayl\u0131k olarak hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bu rakam 19,2 milyar $\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile, ayl\u0131k olarak 19,2 milyar $ sermaye giri\u015fi bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z veya y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 230 milyar $ sermaye giri\u015fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi durumunda, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artarak devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu zor d\u00f6nemde, \u015firketlere tavsiyem, \u00f6zellikle d\u00f6vizle i\u015flem yapan \u015firketlerde d\u00f6viz kredileri ile \u00e7ok fazla bor\u00e7lanmamalar\u0131, y\u00fcksek stokla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmamalar\u0131, uzun vadeli sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmemeleri ayr\u0131ca nakit b\u00fct\u00e7eleri ve tahsilat politikalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi kontrol etmelerini ve yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmelerini \u00f6nermekteyim. 2007 senesi ile ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel krizde, AB, Japonya ve Amerika\u2019dan olu\u015fan 3 k\u0131tada 500 bine yak\u0131n \u015firketin likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeni ile batt\u0131\u011f\u0131, 200 milyonun \u00fczerinde insan\u0131n i\u015fsiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. \u00d6zelikle k\u00fcresel ekonomide d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131n\u0131n kriz \u00f6ncesi de\u011feri 70 tirlyon dolardan k\u00fcresel krizde 50 tirlyon $\u2019a kadar gerilemi\u015ftir. 2013 sene sonu itibari ile bu rakam 59 trilyon $ ancak y\u00fckselebilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiyenin 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 65 milyar $ olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu rakam\u0131n detaylar\u0131n\u0131 inceled\u011fimizde 163 milyar $ ihracata kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 243 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k ithalat yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, Yurt i\u00e7i Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n, 12,7 milyar $ olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi, hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 2012 de 6,3 milyar $\u2019dan 2013 de 841 milyon $\u2019a geriledi\u011fi, Bor\u00e7 senetlerinin 2012 de 32 milyar $\u2019dan 2013 de 20,2 milyar $\u2019a geriledi\u011fi, Banka Kredilerinin 2012 de 15,2 milyar $\u2019dan 2013 de 30,5 milyar $\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Bu tablo, muhtemelen 2013 senesinin % 4,2 -% 4,3 gibi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u2013%7,8 &#8211; %8,00 d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.Di\u011fer yandan, Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015flerinin, 2013 senesinde FITCH ve Moody\u2019s taraf\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi notu almam\u0131za ra\u011fmen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hisse senedi ve bor\u00e7 senetlerinde 2013 senesinin \u00f6zellikle ikinci 6 ay\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Bir anlamda ba\u015fta s\u00f6yledi\u011fim gibi, 2013 ilk 6 ayda sermaye giri\u015fleri artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, FED\u2019in 22 May\u0131s sonras\u0131 tahvil al\u0131m politikas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 2013\u2019\u00fcn son 6 ay\u0131nda sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015f, 2014 de ise bu riskin devam edece\u011fi ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn likide sorunu ile m\u00fccadele edece\u011fi bir y\u0131la do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fimizi \u00fcz\u00fclerek g\u00f6rmekteyim.<\/p>\n<p>***Bu yaz\u0131 CAPITAL DERG\u0130S\u0130, Nisan 2014 say\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<br \/>\nEkonomist &#8211; Akademisyen<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2013 senesi ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 ile ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 K\u00fcresel Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikiye ay\u0131rmak gerekiyor. 2013 ilk 6 ayda k\u00fcresel piyasalar 4 b\u00fcy\u00fck Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n Varl\u0131k Al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,917],"class_list":["post-32451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-ismet-demirkol-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}