{"id":3180,"date":"2011-07-26T09:55:09","date_gmt":"2011-07-26T06:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3180"},"modified":"2011-07-26T09:55:22","modified_gmt":"2011-07-26T06:55:22","slug":"neden-daha-kotu-etkileniriz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/neden-daha-kotu-etkileniriz\/","title":{"rendered":"Neden Daha K\u00f6t\u00fc Etkileniriz?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>2008\u2032deki ko\u015fullar\u0131n ge\u00e7erli olmas\u0131 halinde o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenecek olmam\u0131z\u0131n nedeni, artan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3903012329\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>K\u00fcresel krizin t\u00fcm \u015fiddetiyle patlak verdi\u011fi g\u00fcnlerdeki d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar \u015fu anda ya\u015fan\u0131yor olsa T\u00fcrkiye o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenir. Neden? Sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131na ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce o g\u00fcnleri k\u0131saca hat\u0131rlamakta yarar var.<\/p>\n<p>2008\u2019in sonbahar\u0131nda Lehman Brothers\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla baz\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde \u00e7oktan ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan finansal krizin \u015fiddeti iyice artt\u0131 ve neredeyse t\u00fcm k\u00fcreye yay\u0131ld\u0131. K\u00fcresel kriz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi d\u00f6rt kanaldan vurdu: Birincisi, bankalar\u0131n ve \u015firketlerin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6nceden bol kep\u00e7e ald\u0131klar\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131 yenileme olanaklar\u0131 kalmad\u0131 ve vadesi gelen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6demek i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar. \u0130kincisi, bankalar\u0131m\u0131z yurti\u00e7i kredi arz\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131lar. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, d\u00fcnya ticareti darald\u0131; ihracat\u0131 daha \u00e7ok krizin merkezindeki \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik olan T\u00fcrkiye, bu daralmadan \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilendi. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, bu ortamda hem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 hem t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni dibe vurdu; harcamalar azald\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler sonucunda 2009\u2019da y\u00fczde 4.8 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fck. Kriz \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyinde olan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, 2009\u2019da ortalama y\u00fczde 14 oldu. K\u0131sacas\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizden derinden etkilendik.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k daha fazla<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2008 sonbahar\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n \u015fimdi ge\u00e7erli olmas\u0131 halinde o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenecek olmam\u0131z\u0131n nedeni, \u015fu andaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n daha fazla olmas\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi, kamu kesimi bor\u00e7lanma gere\u011fi ve kamu borcunun milli gelirimize oran\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hem 2008\u2019de hem de \u015fimdi bir sorun yok. Ayn\u0131 yarg\u0131, finansal sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Sa\u011flam bir bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz hem \u015fimdi hem de k\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesinde. O d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla dikkat \u00e7ekici bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi yine de not edeyim: Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) verilerine g\u00f6re finansal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmada belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f var; 2008\u2019de 9.2 milyar dolar iken May\u0131s 2011\u2019de 23.2 milyar dolar.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmam\u0131z\u0131n temel iki nedenini hemen tahmin etmi\u015fsinizdir: Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fimdi daha fazla ve neredeyse tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma ile finanse ediliyor. Az \u00f6nce sa\u011flam bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ili\u015fkin not etti\u011fim ikinci sorun da zaten k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma sorununun bir par\u00e7as\u0131. K\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n daha fazla olmas\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc nedeni daha var. \u015eu: En yetkili a\u011f\u0131zlar s\u0131k\u00e7a cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorununa i\u015faret ettiler ama gerekli ekonomi politikas\u0131 tepkisini vermediler. Uzunca bir s\u00fcre sahnede sadece MB vard\u0131. Ne var ki yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (kredi arz\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 frenleme k\u0131sm\u0131) Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) devreye girmeden i\u015fe yaramayaca\u011f\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan belliydi (en az\u0131ndan bu k\u00f6\u015fede 2010\u2019un son aylar\u0131ndan itibaren \u00e7ok say\u0131da yaz\u0131 yer ald\u0131). Buna kar\u015f\u0131n BDDK olduk\u00e7a gecikmeli bi\u00e7imde devreye girdi. Bu gecikmeye ra\u011fmen MB ayn\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye inatla devam etti. Ek olarak d\u0131\u015f finansal \u00e7evrelerde MB\u2019nin yeni para politikas\u0131 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131. Dile getirilen sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in maliye politikas\u0131nda gereken de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ise hi\u00e7 g\u00fcndeme gelmedi. Mesela vergi aff\u0131ndan elde edilecek ek kaynaklar\u0131n nas\u0131l kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar o kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc de\u011fil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>\u015eans\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu: D\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar 2008\u2019in sonbahar\u0131ndaki kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc de\u011fil. Mevcut iki \u00f6nemli d\u0131\u015f tedirginlik unsuru, Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) ve ABD. AB aylar sonra nihayet di\u015fe dokunur baz\u0131 kararlar ald\u0131. ABD\u2019de Demokratlar ile Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler aras\u0131ndaki bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ve b\u00fct\u00e7e harcama kalemlerinin hangilerinin azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin kavgan\u0131n bitip t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n nefes alaca\u011f\u0131 umuluyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2077091524\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>AB\u2019nin nihayet ortaya koydu\u011fu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm iradesini kap\u0131s\u0131nda bekleyen di\u011fer sorunlar i\u00e7in de s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi ve ABD\u2019deki kavgan\u0131n \u2018tatl\u0131ya ba\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131\u2019 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda, s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 azaltacak yeterli zaman\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n oldu\u011funu belirtmek gerekir. Deme\u00e7 vermek yerine i\u015f yapmakta say\u0131s\u0131z yarar var, farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle.<\/p>\n<p>Bu varsay\u0131mlar alt\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ekonomimiz nelere gebe? Per\u015fembeye\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2008\u2032deki ko\u015fullar\u0131n ge\u00e7erli olmas\u0131 halinde o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenecek olmam\u0131z\u0131n nedeni, artan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z. K\u00fcresel krizin t\u00fcm \u015fiddetiyle patlak verdi\u011fi g\u00fcnlerdeki d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar \u015fu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3180\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}