{"id":3177,"date":"2011-07-26T09:52:24","date_gmt":"2011-07-26T06:52:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3177"},"modified":"2011-07-26T09:52:36","modified_gmt":"2011-07-26T06:52:36","slug":"yeni-denge-faiz-artirmadan-kurulabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeni-denge-faiz-artirmadan-kurulabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Yeni denge&#8221; faiz art\u0131rmadan kurulabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>H\u0131zl\u0131 artan d\u00f6viz ve h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fen borsa piyasalarda &#8220;\u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k&#8221; yarat\u0131rken, Ekonomi y\u00f6neticilerinin &#8220;kriz uyar\u0131s\u0131&#8221; yapan deme\u00e7lerinin de TL&#8217;ye de\u011fer kaybettirici, ithalat\u0131 ve t\u00fcketimi frenleyici, ihracat\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ve bunun sonucunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenleyici, &#8220;yeni bir denge&#8221; aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu iddia edilmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve BDDK kararlar\u0131nda sonra &#8220;kriz korkusu&#8221; ile bu yeni dengenin kurulmak istendi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Ama\u00a0 faiz enstr\u00fcman\u0131 kullan\u0131lmadan bu &#8220;Yeni dengenin&#8221; sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 kurulamayaca\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131 da \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1005274680\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ali Babacan ve B\u00fclent Gedikli&#8217;nin\u00a0 art arda gelen i\u00e7ersinde\u00a0 &#8220;Avrupa ve Amerika&#8217;da bor\u00e7 sorunu&#8221;, &#8220;Kriz&#8221; ve &#8220;Harcamalara fren&#8217; konular\u0131 yer alan deme\u00e7lerinin ard\u0131ndan IMF ve Fitch&#8217;in &#8220;Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bizim i\u00e7in olumsuzluk yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 gelince piyasalarda bir \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. &#8220;Ne oldu da birden krizden s\u00f6z edilir oldu?&#8221; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131. Zafer \u00c7a\u011flayan ve Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 bu geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerine, &#8220;Ekonomimiz sa\u011flam&#8221; &#8220;Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta fren ba\u015flad\u0131&#8221;, &#8220;Krizle yak\u0131ndan uzaktan ilgimiz yok&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p>Ama piyasalar &#8220;\u0130yimser&#8221; olan s\u00f6yleme de\u011fil, &#8220;K\u00f6t\u00fcmser&#8221; s\u00f6yleme de\u011fer verdi. Borsa ay i\u00e7inde h\u0131zla y\u00fczde 5.5 d\u00fc\u015ferken, dolar ve euro h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi. Dolar\u0131n ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fckseli\u015fi y\u00fczde 7 oldu.\u00a0 Bu geli\u015fme baz\u0131 piyasa akt\u00f6rlerince Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 so\u011futmak ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin bu olumsuz deme\u00e7leriyle\u00a0 &#8220;Kontrol alt\u0131nda yeni denge&#8221; kurmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6vizi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek, ithalata fren, ihracata destek vermeyi\u00a0 istediklerini\u00a0 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fcler. Hatta bunu &#8220;Kontroll\u00fc kriz korkusu&#8221; olarak isimlendirenler oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Ama yeni dengenin &#8220;faizi enstr\u00fcman\u0131 olmadan&#8221; kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n imkans\u0131z oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler de var. Yeni dengenin i\u00e7ersinde faiz unsurunun bulunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyenler,\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ayl\u0131k 10 milyar dolar dolay\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f d\u00f6viz girdisine ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar\u0131yla Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi bu yeni denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, turizm gelirinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu aylara getirerek sorun ya\u015famadan sonu\u00e7 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc. Bir yandan TL de\u011fer kaybederken, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak azalan ithalat, artan ihracat ve daralan t\u00fcketimle cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenlemeyi ba\u015faraca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yordu. Ancak, d\u00f6vizdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcnce, T\u00fcrk insan\u0131n\u0131n belle\u011finde yer eden &#8220;D\u00f6viz y\u00fckselir, enflasyon artar kriz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar&#8221; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi bilindi\u011fi i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 yeni \u00f6nlemler\u00a0 ile h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6viz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na fren getirmek istedi. Bir yandan munzamda indirime gitti, bir yandan d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerine ara verdi ve b\u00f6ylece d\u00fcn h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6viz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dengeledi. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u00a0 bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce de faiz koridorunu azaltabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n kararlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kontroll\u00fc art\u0131\u015f haline getirmek iste\u011finden kaynaklan\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan yak\u0131nda dolar\u0131n 1.80&#8217;in \u00fczerine g\u00f6rece\u011fini iddia edenler vard\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr de\u011ferlendirmeler bir yandan d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lusu i\u015fadamlar\u0131n\u0131 korkutuyordu. Bir yandan da ekonomimizin ihtiyac\u0131 olan d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan d\u00f6viz giri\u015finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz y\u00fcksek dolar fiyat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Polonya, Tayland, Hindistan, Endonezya, \u00c7in ve \u0130srail faiz art\u0131rarak yeni denge arayan \u00fclkeler. Hem Munzam hem faizi y\u00fcksek tutarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm arayan \u00fclkeler ise Brezilya, \u00c7in ve Rusya. Munzam art\u0131r\u0131p, faiz indiren \u00fclkeler ise T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130zlanda.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz uzmanlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ve Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n elindeki veri setlerinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu ve kararlar\u0131n\u0131 buna ba\u011fl\u0131 verdiklerine inan\u0131yorlar.\u00a0 Ancak, TL&#8217;ye de\u011fer kaybedilerek, ithalat\u0131 azalt\u0131p, ihracat\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p, piyasay\u0131 so\u011futmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131larak yeni dengenin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, zamanla mutlaka faiz enstr\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 kullanarak\u00a0 ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na giderek yeni dengenin sa\u011flanabilece\u011fini iddia ediyorlar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar\u0131n &#8220;\u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131ktan&#8221; kurtulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin piyasalar\u0131 nas\u0131l y\u00f6nlendirmek istedi\u011fini ve kurmak istedikleri\u00a0 &#8220;Yeni dengenin&#8221; ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n neler olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda bilgilendirici a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmas\u0131, piyasa akt\u00f6rlerince bekleniyor. &#8220;\u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k ve belirsizli\u011fin&#8221; kendilerinin karalar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeyece\u011fi, \u00fclke ekonomisi i\u00e7in de olumsuzluk yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2787107876\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u0131zl\u0131 artan d\u00f6viz ve h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fen borsa piyasalarda &#8220;\u015ea\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k&#8221; yarat\u0131rken, Ekonomi y\u00f6neticilerinin &#8220;kriz uyar\u0131s\u0131&#8221; yapan deme\u00e7lerinin de TL&#8217;ye de\u011fer kaybettirici, ithalat\u0131 ve t\u00fcketimi frenleyici, ihracat\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3177\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}