{"id":3152,"date":"2011-07-25T13:33:33","date_gmt":"2011-07-25T10:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3152"},"modified":"2011-07-29T00:08:28","modified_gmt":"2011-07-28T21:08:28","slug":"imkb-ucurumun-kenarinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imkb-ucurumun-kenarinda\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130MKB u\u00e7urumun kenar\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">\u0130MKB u\u00e7urumun kenar\u0131nda<\/span><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00d6nceki haftalarda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duran fakat bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc beklenen \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapamayan \u0130MKB\u2019de y\u00fckselemeyen borsa d\u00fc\u015fer kural\u0131 bir kez daha ger\u00e7ek oldu. Gelen sat\u0131\u015flarla 72,800 civar\u0131nda bulunan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek test edilirken, bu seviyenin de k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck resimde 66,500 ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor (Bkz: \u0130MKB 30 TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130). Bu hafta hacim destekli bir co\u015fku ya\u015fanamamas\u0131 durumunda endeksteki kay\u0131plar\u0131n \u00e7ok daha fazla boyutlara ula\u015fabilece\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\u0131 ve destek seviyelerinden tepki i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlarda deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte mutlaka stop loos yap\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3583096406\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>TCMB bekleneni yapt\u0131:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan beklendi\u011fi gibi faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Yine beklendi\u011fi gibi \u015fu anki piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek bir ad\u0131m da at\u0131lmad\u0131. Bununla birlikte yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda tonlaman\u0131n iyice yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TCMB piyasalar\u0131 so\u011futma ad\u0131na att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n sonucundan o kadar emin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki, ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde d\u0131\u015f \u015foklar\u0131n da etkisiyle ekonomide beklenenden fazla bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6zlenmesi durumunda faiz indirimi de dahil parasal gev\u015femeye gidilebilece\u011fi sinyali verildi. \u00c7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sonu\u00e7, TCMB at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131ndan ve ekonomideki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n normal seviyelere inece\u011finden emin. Faiz taraf\u0131nda bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir art\u0131\u015f beklentimiz kalmad\u0131. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda \u015fuan ki seviyelerden bir rahats\u0131zl\u0131k duyulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenimi al\u0131yoruz. \u0130MKB taraf\u0131nda ise k\u0131sa vadeli etki s\u00f6z konusu de\u011filken, orta ve uzun vadede a\u00e7\u0131klanacak cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n TCMB\u2019yi teyit etmesi olumlu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bu sabah itibariyle TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerini durdurdu\u011funu ve 1 y\u0131ldan uzun vadeli DTH\u2019larda zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 indirdi\u011fini \u00f6\u011frendik. Bu k\u0131sa vadede d\u00f6vizin ate\u015fini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmede etkili olsa da trend de\u011fi\u015fimini etkileyebilecek bir hamle de\u011fil. Mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde TCMB d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoluyla piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece kurdaki geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecektir. Yap\u0131lan bu hamle ile piyasaya sa\u011flanan yakla\u015f\u0131k 590 milyon dolarl\u0131k likidite \u0130MKB taraf\u0131nda da pozitif etki yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>AB Liderler Zirvesi sonu\u00e7land\u0131:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi olu\u015fturdu\u011fu AB Liderler Zirvesi\u2019nden \u00e7\u0131kan kararlar piyasalarda pozitif hava estirirken, kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n buradan \u00e7\u0131kan kararlar\u0131 nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirece\u011fi bekleniyor. Bu zirvenin g\u00f6ze en \u00e7ok batan yan\u0131 ise AB\u2019de al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f a\u011f\u0131r i\u015fleyen ve tabiri caizse k\u0131d\u0131m k\u0131d\u0131m al\u0131nmas\u0131na al\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz kararlar\u0131n bu sefer tek seferde ve sorunlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu kapsayacak \u015fekilde al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Yunanistan ile birlikte Portekiz ve \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n faizlerinde yap\u0131lan iyile\u015ftirme piyasalar\u0131n ilk etaptaki beklentileri a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan Yunanistan\u2019dan sonra ba\u015flayabilecek \u0130spanya ve \u0130rlanda spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7me \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bu ad\u0131m\u0131 olumlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yoruz. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 olumlu bulmakla birlikte, kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bu konudaki yorumunun piyasalar \u00fczerindeki etkisinin \u00e7ok daha sert olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Fitch, Fitchli\u011fini yapm\u0131\u015f:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerinden biri de Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ve AB Liderler Zirvesinden \u00e7\u0131kacak sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 beklerken Fitch\u2019ten gelen yorumlar oldu. T\u00fcrk ekonomisinde \u0131s\u0131nma oldu\u011funu, TCMB\u2019nin politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da\u00a0 \u201ckar\u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d olarak niteleyen Fitch, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle de not art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n belirsiz oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131nda \u0130MKB\u2019de panik havas\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 anlayabilmi\u015f olmasak da, son g\u00fcnlerdeki biriken tedirginli\u011fin altta kalma korkusuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larda biriken stresin agresif sat\u0131\u015fa ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle de \u201cSat Kurtul\u201da d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da \u00f6zellikle hacimsiz tahtalarda pani\u011fin daha derin hissedilmesine neden oldu. Ard\u0131ndan Fitch\u2019ten durumu yumu\u015fatan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar gelmesi zaten neden satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmeyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131m yapma nedeni oldu. biz gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n tonlamas\u0131ndan ziyade \u0130MKB\u2019nin tepkisini agresif buldu\u011fumuzu belirtelim. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta bu s\u00fcrecin ya\u015fanmas\u0131na neden olan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla g\u00f6rmekte fayda var. \u00d6zellikle Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 \u00c7a\u011flayan\u2019\u0131n\u00a0 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch&#8217;in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 &#8220;Fitch yine Fitchli\u011fini yapm\u0131\u015f&#8221; s\u00f6zleriyle de\u011ferlendirmesinin ard\u0131ndan Fitch\u2019ten gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n tonlamas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da s\u0131ras\u0131yla bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 verdik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1389148942\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: T\u00fcrk ekonomisinde \u0131s\u0131nma sinyalleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 belirsiz<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politika bile\u015fiminin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 en iyi ifadeyle kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 \u00c7a\u011flayan,: &#8220;Fitch yine Fitchli\u011fini yapm\u0131\u015f&#8221;<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2522921566\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Ekonomiyi so\u011futmak i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131 mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ile desteklenmeli<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Makroekonomik dengesizlik olmadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yakalanmas\u0131 zor<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: MB politikalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fe yaramas\u0131 i\u00e7in zamana ihtiya\u00e7 var<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: \u0130ki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kredi notunu art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131rmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ertesi g\u00fcn:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Aral\u0131kta \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z rapordan farkl\u0131 yeni bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemedik<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Haks\u0131z, zaman zaman da spek\u00fclatif oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131m\u0131z raporlarla ayn\u0131 \u00e7izgide, \u00f6nce raporlar\u0131m\u0131z okunsun<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Kredilerde tehlikeli bir durumun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Ki\u015fisel olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomisi konusunda iyimserim<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: Yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 gelecekte bize yetli \u00fcretim olarak d\u00f6necektir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fitch: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hala artt\u0131r\u0131labilecek turizm potansiyeli var.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>ABD bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek zorunda:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00d6nceki haftalarda da dile getirdi\u011fimiz gibi ABD\u2019de bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusundaki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 devam ediyor. Bu haftaya da bu konudaki olumsuz haberlerle ba\u015flad\u0131k. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta Sal\u0131 yani 2 A\u011fustos bu karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in son tarih. Bu nedenle bu hafta bu konu \u00e7ok fazla g\u00fcndeme gelecektir. Bizim beklentimiz ABD\u2019nin de t\u0131pk\u0131 AB\u2019nin Yunanistan konusunda oldu\u011fu gibi bu soruna vadesinden \u00f6nce bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Aksi halde piyasalarda ikinci bir Lehman vakas\u0131 ya\u015fanabilir ki, bunu ABD\u2019de ne iktidar\u0131n ne de muhalefetin kald\u0131rabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kanlar:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>25 Temmuz\u00a0 2011 Pazartesi:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:30 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Dallas Fed \u0130malat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>26 Temmuz\u00a0 2011 Sal\u0131:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16:00 \u2013 ABD May\u0131s Ay\u0131 S&amp;P CaseSchiller Konut Fiyat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131\u00a0 Richmond FED \u0130malat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Haziran Ay\u0131 Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>27 Temmuz\u00a0 2011 \u00c7ar\u015famba:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haziran Ay\u0131 Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haziran Ay\u0131 Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21:00 \u2013 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) Bej Kitap Raporu\u2019nu Yay\u0131nlayacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>28 Temmuz\u00a0 2011 Per\u015fembe:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 Euro B\u00f6lgesi Temmuz Ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Haziran Ay\u0131 Bekleyen Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>29 Temmuz\u00a0 2011 Cuma:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD 2. \u00c7eyrek GSYH<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD 2. \u00c7eyrek Ki\u015fisel Harcamalar<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16:45 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Michigan Univ. T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u0130MKB 30 TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130MKB 30\u2019a bu hafta biraz daha geni\u015f pencereden bakmak i\u00e7in bu hafta grafi\u011fe haftal\u0131k bazda bakmay\u0131 uygun g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Burada ilk \u00f6nemli destek olan 72,800\u2019\u00fcn haftan\u0131n son iki g\u00fcn\u00fc test edildi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck resimde endekste sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri beraberinde getirebilir. Bu durumda ilk olarak 70,000 ard\u0131ndan da 66,500 seviyesine kadar sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme daha ya\u015fanabilir. Bu nedenle endekste y\u00fcksek hacimli al\u0131mlar gelmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n riskinin devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde bu hafta 76,000\u2019e kadar olacak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tepki olarak niteleyebiliriz. Ancak 76,000\u2019in hacimli bir \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda endekste ciddi bir toparlanmadan bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin sinyalini sat\u0131\u015f kademelerindeki lot miktarlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalaman\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu ve bu kademelerin al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde anlayaca\u011f\u0131z. Aksi takdirde hacimsiz kalkan kademeler yeni sat\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>USD\/TL TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Dolar\/TL kurunda bir s\u00fcredir 1,62-1,70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeni hareket alan\u0131 olabilece\u011finden bahsediyorduk. \u0130lk olarak hedef olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 1,70\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyeler Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc itibariyle test edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131, bug\u00fcn itibariyle de 1,73\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczeri test edildi. Y\u00fckseli\u015f kriz ortam\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc alm\u0131\u015fken TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerini durdurmas\u0131 ve DTH\u2019larda zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle dolar\u0131n ate\u015fi de bir miktar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bir s\u00fcredir TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften \u00e7ok da rahats\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 imaj\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011finden bahsediyorduk. Art\u0131k TCMB\u2019nin de rahats\u0131z olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat seviyelerine gelinmeye ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu karar sonras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcrde ani de\u011fi\u015fimler olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kurun 1,70 alt\u0131na yeniden gev\u015feyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fakat bundan sonra daha \u00f6nce 1,62-1,70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz hareket band\u0131n\u0131 1,62-1,75 band\u0131 olarak geni\u015fletiyoruz. Bu nedenle de k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn deste\u011fiyle dolar\/TL kurunda olas\u0131 gerilemeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/> <\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130MKB u\u00e7urumun kenar\u0131nda \u00d6nceki haftalarda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duran fakat bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc beklenen \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapamayan \u0130MKB\u2019de y\u00fckselemeyen borsa d\u00fc\u015fer kural\u0131 bir kez daha ger\u00e7ek oldu.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3152\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}