{"id":31516,"date":"2014-03-05T11:22:32","date_gmt":"2014-03-05T09:22:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=31516"},"modified":"2014-03-05T23:36:36","modified_gmt":"2014-03-05T21:36:36","slug":"sanayi-uretimi-2013-senesinin-3-ceyreginde-toparlandi-2014-senesi-ise-surprizlere-acik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sanayi-uretimi-2013-senesinin-3-ceyreginde-toparlandi-2014-senesi-ise-surprizlere-acik\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130smet Demirkol &#8211; Sanayi \u00dcretimi, 2013 Senesinin 3. \u00c7eyre\u011finde Toparland\u0131. 2014 Senesi ise S\u00fcrprizlere A\u00e7\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2013 senesi ilk 6 ay\u0131nda beklenen ivmeyi g\u00f6stermezken, 3. \u00e7eyrekte, 2012 senesine g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2217594742\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sanayi \u00fcretimini \u00e7eyrek bazda incelersek, 2012 1. \u00e7eyrekte % 3,9 olan \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2013 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde % 1,3 seviyelerine geriledi ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde 2012 2. \u00e7eyrekte % 3,6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00fcretim, 2013 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde gerilemeye devam ederek % 3,2 de kald\u0131. 2012 3. \u00e7eyrekte % 1,9 olan \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise, 2013 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6zellikle Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki sanayi \u00fcretimindeki\u00a0 ayl\u0131k bazda % 5,8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve bunda d\u0131\u015f talebin de pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131 neticesiyle, %3,7\u2019lik \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalanarak, ilk 6 ayl\u0131k sanayi \u00fcretiminde ki gerileme 3. \u00e7eyrek sonunda y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. 2012 senesi ilk 9 ay\u0131nda hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 % 3,1 olarak ger\u00e7eklemi\u015fti. 2013 senesinde, ise yukar\u0131da \u00e7eyrek bazda ifade edilen rakamlarda da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, ilk iki \u00e7eyrekte ki sanayi \u00fcretim rakamlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de etkisi ile, 9 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f % 2,8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Son \u00e7eyrek de ise, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimindeki olumlu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Ekim \u2013 Kas\u0131m ve Aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda devam etmesi durumunda, 2013 y\u0131lsonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefinin % 4 veya % 4\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k dahilinde. 2013 senesinde, sanayi \u00fcretimindeki ilk 6 ayl\u0131k momentum kayb\u0131n\u0131n neden meydana geldi\u011fini birka\u00e7 c\u00fcmle ile ifade etmek istersek, \u00f6ncelikle Avrupadaki bor\u00e7 krizinin hala \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclememi\u015f olmas\u0131 neticesinde 2013 senesinde ekonominin % &#8211; 0,4\u2019l\u00fck daralmas\u0131, FED\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ki tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131 ve 2013 senesinde i\u00e7 talepdeki kredi geni\u015flemesinin beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde % 30 seviyelerine y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen d\u0131\u015f talebin pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa ancak 2013 senesi 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi devam ettirdi\u011finden,\u00a0 sanayi \u00fcretiminin zay\u0131f seyretmesine neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p>2013 senesinde d\u0131\u015f talebin pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok net g\u00f6remedi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in,\u00a0 i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomi ile y\u0131lsonunu tamamlad\u0131k.\u00a0 2014 senesine ise, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 143 milyar $\u2019a ula\u015fan k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f borcu, &#8211; %7,9&#8217;a yakla\u015fan Cari \u0130\u015flemler Dengesi\/GSYH ve\u00a0 65 milyar $ civar\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile\u00a0 % 7,4 seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde enflasyon ve % 12,6 seviyelerine gerileyen tasarruf g\u00f6stergeleri girmekteyiz. BDDK\u2019nin kredi kartlar\u0131na getirmi\u015f oldu\u011fu taksitlendirme s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131, % 30 seviyelerine ula\u015fan t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 frenlese bile, kredi kullananlar\u0131n % 51\u2019lik bir kesiminin 2000 TL geliri oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, 2014 senesinde i\u00e7 talep de daralman\u0131n ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin etkisi, di\u011fer yandan FED\u2019in Ocak ay\u0131ndan ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere 10 milyar $ tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131n\u0131n, \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan itibaren 10 milyar $ daha azaltmas\u0131 ve \u015eubat 2014 itibari ile 65 milyar $ olarak tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etmesi, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye gibi Geli\u015fen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde artmas\u0131 nedeni ile, artan Dolar talebi ile kurun y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi durumunda, ara mal\u0131 ithal eden sanayicimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan girdi maliyetlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fi, 2013 de % &#8211; 0,4 daralmas\u0131 beklenen Avrupa ekonomisinin, 2014 de arzu edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini yakalayamamas\u0131 durumunda, T\u00fcrk \u0130hracat\u0131n\u0131n, Avrupada ki Pazar kayb\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenebilece\u011fi beklenmektedir. \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan anla\u015fman\u0131n 6 ayl\u0131k k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcreyi kapsamas\u0131, T\u00fcrk Sanayisi i\u00e7in ekonominin ilk 6 ay\u0131nda pozitif etki yaratmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, 17 Aral\u0131k sonras\u0131 siyasi risklerin artmas\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi beraberinde getirece\u011finden sanayi \u00fcretiminde, \u00f6zellikle, Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizleri artt\u0131rmas\u0131 sonucu, artan kredi maliyetleri sonucu, ilk \u00e7eyrekde \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimde ivme kayb\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer yandan Dolar\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda 2,39\u2019u g\u00f6rmesi sonras\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n 28 Ocak Sal\u0131 gecesi ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 neticesinde, Dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi hafifde olsa yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, FED\u2019in tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131n\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere 10 milyar $ daha azaltmas\u0131 ve Mart 2014 sonras\u0131 tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131na devam edece\u011fi beklentisi,\u00a0 ile geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerdeki sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi neticesinde, T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7de y\u00fcksek faiz ve d\u00f6viz kuru riski ile m\u00fccadele etmeye devam edecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir. Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n, Politika faizi ve Faiz Koridorunda\u00a0 radikal, ancak ge\u00e7 alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu Faiz Karar\u0131, enflasyon ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan\u00a0 \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, hazinenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma ihaleleri ile bankalar\u0131n kredi maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselmesi nedeni ile, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyeti ve t\u00fcketicilerin ta\u015f\u0131t, konut gibi kredi maliyetleri y\u00fckselece\u011finden, i\u00e7 talepde k\u0131smi bir daralma ve \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksinde ( \u00dcFE ) art\u0131\u015f olma ihtimali do\u011fmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrk Sanayisi, ekonominin dinamosu, lokomotifi ve itici g\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. Sanayi \u00fcretiminde art\u0131\u015f ne kadar y\u00fcksek olursa, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve verimlilik\u00a0 de o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olur.<\/p>\n<p>2014 senesinde k\u00fcresel ekonomide ki riskler, devam etmesine ra\u011fmen, bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye FITCH ve Moody\u2019s taraf\u0131ndan verilen yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclke kategorisindedir. 2013 senesinde, Do\u011frudan Sermaye giri\u015fleri beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, 2014 senesinde T\u00fcrk Sanayicisi, giri\u015fimcisinin katk\u0131lar\u0131 ile Do\u011frudan Yabanc\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015flerinin 20 \u2013 30 milyar $ civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda, sanayi \u00fcretiminin geli\u015fmesine ve ivme kazanmas\u0131na olumlu katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>***Bu yaz\u0131 \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131 Dergisinin Ocak 2014 say\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/i><\/b><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2993660451\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><b><i>Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/b><b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2013 senesi ilk 6 ay\u0131nda beklenen ivmeyi g\u00f6stermezken, 3. \u00e7eyrekte, 2012 senesine g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. Sanayi \u00fcretimini \u00e7eyrek bazda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,917],"class_list":["post-31516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-ismet-demirkol-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31516\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}