{"id":31216,"date":"2014-02-19T11:39:47","date_gmt":"2014-02-19T09:39:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=31216"},"modified":"2014-02-19T14:09:59","modified_gmt":"2014-02-19T12:09:59","slug":"issizlik-dolar-faiz-ve-enflasyon-birlikte-yukseliyor-dogrudan-yatirimlar-ve-buyume-geriliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/issizlik-dolar-faiz-ve-enflasyon-birlikte-yukseliyor-dogrudan-yatirimlar-ve-buyume-geriliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130smet Demirkol &#8211; \u0130\u015fsizlik, Dolar, Faiz ve Enflasyon Birlikte Y\u00fckseliyor, Do\u011frudan Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme Geriliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nland\u0131, Mart ay\u0131na girmeye k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre kald\u0131 ama, Kas\u0131m istihdam rakamlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ay geriden geliyor.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3389617009\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2014 de i\u015fsizlik ne olur art\u0131k onu konu\u015fmal\u0131y\u0131z ama Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa bir de\u011ferlendirmesini yapal\u0131m. Tabloda asl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok, Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden beslenen istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 devam ediyor, oranlara bakal\u0131m, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc % 50,7, in\u015faat % 7,4, sanayi % 19,4\u00a0 ve son olarak tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc % 22,5 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki ay ile k\u0131yaslad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 0,7, in\u015faat 0,2, sanayi 0,4 puan y\u00fckselmi\u015f, tar\u0131m 1,3 puan azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m % 50,5\u00a0 ve istihdam oran\u0131 da % 45,5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re, istihdam oran\u0131 0,4 puan, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m da 0,2 puan\u00a0 gerilemi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zet olarak Kas\u0131m i\u015fsizlik verilerinin bize anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2012 senesine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlikde y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam etti\u011fi ve 2013 OVP hedefi olan % 9,5\u2019in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalinin giderek zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 2013 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi yani herhangi bir art\u0131\u015f veya azal\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131ndaki daralma 2014 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fsizlikde \u00e7ift haneleri g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimizin i\u015fareti olarak alg\u0131lanabilir. \u00d6zellikle, 2014 de i\u00e7 talebin daralmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki azalman\u0131n da etkisi ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, artan kredi maliyetleri ve enflasyonun etkisi hazinenin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini de yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011finden, ihracat\u0131n net pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131n, % 2 seviyelerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi 2014 OVP hedefi olarak % 9,4 i\u015fsizlik rakam\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini de ortadan kald\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>FED\u2019in tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma karar\u0131 sonra geli\u015fen piyasalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f devam ediyor, 2013 senesini 12,7 milyar $ br\u00fct Do\u011frudan Yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fi ile kapatt\u0131k. 2012 de bu rakam 12,2 milyar $ d\u0131. Portf\u00f6y hesab\u0131 2013 de 21 milyar $\u2019a geriledi, 2012 de ise 38,1 milyar $\u2019d\u0131. Hisse senedi gri\u015fleri 841 milyon $ olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, 2012 de 6,2 milyar $\u2019d\u0131, bor\u00e7 senetleri de ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde gerilemeye devam ediyor.\u00a0 20,2 milyar $ oldu. 2012 de 31,8 milyar $\u2019d\u0131. Banka kredilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 2013 de 30,5 milyar $\u2019a y\u00fckselmi\u015f. 2012 de 15,2 milyar $\u2019d\u0131. \u00d6zetle\u00a0 2103 \u00f6demeler dengesi finansman\u0131nda portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f, banka kredileri art\u0131m\u0131\u015f, Do\u011frudan Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fleri Moddy\u2019s ve FITCH\u2019in yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi not art\u0131\u015f\u0131ma ra\u011fmen y\u00fckselmemi\u015f durumda. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 toplam d\u0131\u015f borcumuz 350 milyar $\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131, BU rakam\u0131n 250 milyar $\u2019\u0131 \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r, 100 milyar $\u2019\u0131 ise kam\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ait. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 143 milyar $\u2019\u0131 ise k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7. Bu tablo bize \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r borcunun d\u00f6viz talebini 2014 de artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Evet MB faizleri y\u00fckseltti ancak Dolar ba\u015fka \u00fclkenin para birimi ve biz o \u00fclkenin para birimi ile bor\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. Dolar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc biz de de\u011fil d\u0131\u015far\u0131da.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 2014 y\u0131l\u0131, i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fi, Dolar ve Faiz Maliyetlerinin birlikte y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, Do\u011frudan Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2013 den gelen\u00a0 Car\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 65 milyar dolar ile % -8 oran\u0131nda GSYH\u2019ya yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tablo olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131lsonu % 8 civar\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi \u015fu an i\u00e7in pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. 2012 de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fck ancak sermaye giri\u015fi devam ediyordu. 2014 de ise yine ayn\u0131 politikay\u0131 devreye soktuk ancak sermayenin maliyeti y\u00fckseliyor. Esas \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gereken tablo bu.<\/p>\n<p><i>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol<\/a><\/b><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2028229098\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><b><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nland\u0131, Mart ay\u0131na girmeye k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre kald\u0131 ama, Kas\u0131m istihdam rakamlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ay geriden geliyor. 2014 de i\u015fsizlik&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,917],"class_list":["post-31216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-ismet-demirkol-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}