{"id":3116,"date":"2011-07-25T09:45:35","date_gmt":"2011-07-25T06:45:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3116"},"modified":"2011-07-25T09:45:46","modified_gmt":"2011-07-25T06:45:46","slug":"sorunlar-degil-gucluler-cozuluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sorunlar-degil-gucluler-cozuluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Sorunlar De\u011fil, G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcler \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyor&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131n k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde geni\u015f bant i\u00e7inde dalgalanarak yatay e\u011filim sergiledi\u011fi, \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan bekle g\u00f6r anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile i\u015flem hacimlerinin geriledi\u011fi, belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckseklerde seyretti\u011fi bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na g\u00fcn kurtar\u0131ld\u0131, ABD&#8217;de ise bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131na ili\u015fkin uzla\u015fman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratmaya devam etti. \u00dclkemizde ise T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;nda ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Yetkililerden gelen de\u011ferlendirmeler ile piyasalardaki e\u011filimler uyu\u015fmad\u0131, her kafadan ayr\u0131 bir ses \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam etti. Genelde risk alma iste\u011fi artmad\u0131, azald\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-512449039\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Evet, Yunanistan kurtar\u0131ld\u0131, ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle vesayet alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131; bu durum Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin di\u011fer sorunlu \u00fcyelerini de k\u0131smen rahatlat\u0131rken, g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnenler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131dakilerin risk primi bir miktar azal\u0131r iken, yukar\u0131dakilerin ki artt\u0131; riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimi k\u0131sa vadede azald\u0131, kapanan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015flar nedeniyle baz\u0131 olumlu fiyat hareketleri ya\u015fand\u0131, fakat Euro B\u00f6lgesi yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir hale gelmedi. Avrupa Kurtarma Fonu&#8217;nun 440 milyar eurosu, IMF&#8217;nin deste\u011fi ve b\u00f6lge bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131 g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc, yar\u0131 zorunlu deste\u011fi ile yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenenler hayal s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcyelerinin garantisi ile sorunlu \u00fcyelere destek verilecekmi\u015f. Tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131, bor\u00e7 yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131, durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in ekonomik ivmeleme destekleri vs. Her \u015fey var, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yok.<\/p>\n<p>Euro B\u00f6lgesi liderlerinin \u00fcretti\u011fi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 genelinde ABD&#8217;de ya\u015fananlar\u0131 an\u0131msat\u0131yor, ipotek senedi ihra\u00e7 eden kurumlar \u00fczerindeki olumsuz bask\u0131y\u0131 k\u0131rmak i\u00e7in de ABD hazinesi garanti vermi\u015fti fakat olmad\u0131, piyasalar bl\u00f6f\u00fc g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f ve ortal\u0131k kar\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131! ABD mali sistemi ellerinde riskli ka\u011f\u0131tlar varken neden garanti yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek yerine daha farkl\u0131 bir tercih i\u00e7ine girmi\u015fti! Ortaya konan yakla\u015f\u0131mda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n tercihli k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimler konusunda etkili olabilir. Fakat g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmak ad\u0131na net garanti veren Almanya gibi \u00fclkelerde \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yak\u0131nda kendini hissettirmeye ba\u015flar ve evdeki hesaplar \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymaz&#8230; Zira onlar\u0131n sars\u0131lmas\u0131 piyasalardaki e\u011filimleri olumsuz y\u00f6nde h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca olumsuz beklentileri k\u0131rarak risk almay\u0131 te\u015fvik edecek b\u00f6yle bir yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in k\u00fcresele ko\u015fullar\u0131n steril olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir, k\u0131sa ve orta vadede gerekli ko\u015fullar\u0131n mevcut olmayaca\u011f\u0131 kesin gibidir&#8230; Bu arada Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankalar\u0131ndan 49 milyar euroluk fedakarl\u0131k bekleyenlerin yeni bir stres testi daha yapmas\u0131 gerekiyor; zira sorunlu banka ve toplam \u00f6z kaynak a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anormal bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u015f\u00fcphem yok! Kendine bile g\u00fcvenemeyen deste\u011fe ihtiyac\u0131 olan kurumlardan olmayan ve olamayacak \u015feyi vermelerini beklemek ne kadar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i!.. Alman Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir direndi\u011fi bu t\u00fcr bir \u00f6neriye, neden evet dedi? \u00c7aresiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mi, yoksa yanl\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mi?.. Ne dersiniz Almanlar b\u00fcy\u00fcyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilmek i\u00e7in sorunlu \u00fcyelere yeni krediler verebilir, bankalar\u0131n\u0131 buna ikna edebilirler mi? Rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc azalan bunu tersine \u00e7eviremeyen Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcyeleri i\u00e7in yaprak d\u00f6k\u00fcm\u00fc zaman\u0131 geldi, bu durumu terse \u00e7evirmek pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ortada kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yok, Euro B\u00f6lgesi risklerini azaltmak i\u00e7in son bir f\u0131rsat var&#8230; Spek\u00fclatif atak s\u0131ras\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi yak\u0131nda anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r!..<\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;de bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusundaki \u00e7abalar i\u015fe sonu\u00e7suz kalmaya devam etti. Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler en ufak bir vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmedi\u011fi gibi harcamalar\u0131n dramatik bir \u015fekilde k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 ile b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fart ko\u015fuyor ve herhangi bir tavize yana\u015fm\u0131yor. Deyim yerinde ise maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7enin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmesini istiyor, y\u00f6nlendirmenin ise sadece para politikas\u0131 ile yap\u0131lmas\u0131nda \u0131srarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor! Mevcut ko\u015fullarda bu stratejinin ABD&#8217;deki durgunlu\u011fu derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor veya radikal \u00e7izgide oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik dile getirilmeyen siyasi talepler i\u00e7in uygun ortam yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor olabilirler. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftada durum de\u011fi\u015fmez veya Obama, cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin t\u00fcm \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ad\u0131na kabul etmek zorunda kal\u0131r ise ortal\u0131k kar\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flayacak. Kredi de\u011ferlendirme \u015firketlerinden \u00f6nce piyasalar\u0131n risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde derin dal\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler, 1995 sonras\u0131nda ABD&#8217;de ve k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde i\u015flerin nas\u0131l d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn ya fark\u0131nda de\u011fil ya da a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dile getiremedikleri a\u015fka ama\u00e7lar\u0131 var!.. Friedman&#8217;\u0131n para politikas\u0131 konusundaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin ne zaman ve neden g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne bakmalar\u0131nda bir yarar olabilir, ancak sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmeyebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fclkemizdeki tercihleri ve bunlar\u0131n dolayl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 k\u00fcresel belirsizlik konusunda genel bir fikir verebilir. \u00dclkemizde ve k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde hi\u00e7bir \u015fey eskisi gibi olmayacak. Sistemik risk art\u0131yor, beklentiler yolu ile g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmak ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmm\u00fc\u015f gibi pazarlamak zorla\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi de daralacak ve bu durumun sekt\u00f6rler \u00fczerindeki etkisi bor\u00e7luluk durumuna g\u00f6re farkl\u0131la\u015facak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu ko\u015fullarda ava \u00e7\u0131kanlar av olmaktan kurtulamayabilirler&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131n k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde geni\u015f bant i\u00e7inde dalgalanarak yatay e\u011filim sergiledi\u011fi, \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan bekle g\u00f6r anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile i\u015flem hacimlerinin geriledi\u011fi, belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckseklerde seyretti\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3116\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}