{"id":3110,"date":"2011-07-25T09:41:41","date_gmt":"2011-07-25T06:41:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3110"},"modified":"2011-07-25T09:41:50","modified_gmt":"2011-07-25T06:41:50","slug":"dolarda-yukselis-surecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolarda-yukselis-surecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolarda Y\u00fckseli\u015f S\u00fcrecek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>1.70 TL s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayanan dolar kurunda y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Dolar\/TL\u2019de 1.6570\u2019in yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 1.7350\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eimdi ilk hedef buras\u0131. \u201c1 dolar+1 euro\u201d sepetinde de 4.00 seviyesi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.0550 ile a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>Yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0hedef 4.1050 seviyesi. As\u0131l \u00f6nemli hareketlerden biri \u0130MKB\u2019de ya\u015fan\u0131yor. TL baz\u0131nda 2-3 Mart tarihlerinde 59.207 ile 59.424 aras\u0131ndaki \u201cbo\u015flu\u011fun\u201d kapanmas\u0131 an meselesi. Sonras\u0131nda 58 binler&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2400279456\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>Dolar<\/strong><\/span>\/TL kurlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta 1.6995\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131 ancak 1.70 \u201cekranlarda yanmad\u0131\u201d. Tek t\u00fck i\u015flem ge\u00e7mi\u015f olsa da seviye olarak ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta tescil edilmeyen 1.70 seviyesinin bu hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, hatta kurlar\u0131n bir miktar daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu. \u00dcstelik bu y\u00fckseli\u015f pariteden de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z oldu\u011fundan euro\/TL kurlar\u0131 da art\u0131yor. Nereleri olabilece\u011fine ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce bu haftan\u0131n as\u0131l \u201cg\u00f6stergesine\u201d de\u011finmekte fayda var. ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma limitinin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 meselesi&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc olarak bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fczerinden piyasalara likidite verilmesi yolu benimsendi. Krize yol a\u00e7an hastal\u0131klar\u0131 tedavi etmek i\u00e7im, bu hastal\u0131klar\u0131n \u201cyay\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d konusunda en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131\u201d durumundaki finansal sistemden yararlan\u0131ld\u0131. Sorun zaman yay\u0131lmak, zararlar \u201c\u015fi\u015firilen\u201d bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n alt\u0131na saklanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bunu yapmak i\u00e7in devletler, yani kamu bor\u00e7land\u0131! \u015eirketlerin ve bireylerin yaratm\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131 zararlar b\u00f6ylelikle kamuya aktar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu. Ancak\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>fatura<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0o kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fc ki bu sefer de \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma rakamlar\u0131 ar\u015f-\u0131 al\u00e2ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7evrilip \u00e7eviremeye\u011fi sorgulanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130rlanda, Yunanistan gibi \u00fclkeler bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemez hale geldiler, ABD gibi kantar\u0131n topuzunu iyiden iyiye ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olanlar da \u201ckredibilitelerini\u201d yani notlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetme riski ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131lar. Bug\u00fcn gelinen noktada sorun yine ileriye \u00f6telenmeye; zaman\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirici etkisinden yararlan\u0131lmaya; \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Yine kurallar esnetildi; temerr\u00fcte d\u00fc\u015fecek- default edecek derken, bir yerlerden \u201cse\u00e7ici (ge\u00e7ici) temerr\u00fct selective default\u201d diye bir tan\u0131m \u201cuyduruldu ki CDS\u2019ler devreye girmesin, sistem \u201cpatlamas\u0131n\u201d. Ya da Avrupa\u2019da yeni yeni fonlar kurularak sorunun \u00fczeri \u201cdaha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hal\u0131yla\u201d \u00f6rt\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Amerika da bor\u00e7lanma limitini artt\u0131rarak \u201chal\u0131y\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye\u201d \u00e7abal\u0131yor. Krizin as\u0131l sorumlular\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler; s\u0131rf Demokratlara kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck sa\u011flayabilmek ad\u0131na;\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>limit<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0art\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda kamu harcamalar\u0131ndan tasarruf edilerek bor\u00e7lanma miktar\u0131n\u0131 azaltamaya y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmas\u0131 kayd\u0131yla destek vereceklerini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Obama bunu sa\u011flayabilmek i\u00e7in vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da pakete sokmak isterken, ABD Temsilciler Meclisi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin ba\u015fkan\u0131 Boehner \u201cvergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n istihdam\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi\u011fi\u201d i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lam\u0131yor. Hafta sonu yap\u0131l\u015fan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nu uman Geithner d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cAmerika\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemez duruma asla d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini\u201d ve bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yolunun mutlaka bulunaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar\u0131n da inanc\u0131 bu y\u00f6nde. \u015eimdilik ne ABD CDS\u2019lerinde, ne ABD bonolar\u0131nda ve hatta hisse senetlerinde b\u00f6ylesi bir \u201cfiyatlama\u201d yok! Herkes \u201cson dakikada\u201d da olsa bir anla\u015fma olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor. Aksi, yani 2 A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulun(a)mamas\u0131n\u0131 kimse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek istemiyor. Zira t\u00fcm not \u015firketleri b\u00f6ylesi bir durumda ABD\u2019nin notunu indireceklerini \u201ctemerr\u00fct\u201d durumunun has\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Bunu nas\u0131l fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da \u015fimdilik kimse bilmiyor. Bu hafta durum netle\u015fecek. Ya bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunacak, ya da bu hafta danan\u0131n kuyru\u011fu kopacak\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z b\u00fct\u00fcn finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc kula\u011f\u0131 Amerika\u2019da olacak! Bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de. Sanki bor\u00e7 limiti problemi ABD\u2019nin de\u011fil de bizim, ya da temerr\u00fct riski ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan Yunanistan de\u011fil de biziz. T\u00fcrk piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n son 2 aydaki fiyatlamas\u0131 adeta yukar\u0131daki riskler bizimmi\u015f gibi. (Sebebini 23 Temmuz Cumartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m bonodaki istisnay\u0131 atlamadan&#8230;) g\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki halen daha gidilecek yer var.<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yeni pozisyon almak istememeleri, hem h\u00fck\u00fcmet hem de AKP kanad\u0131ndan gelen \u201cd\u0131\u015far\u0131daki krizin bizi etkileme ihtimali art\u0131yor\u201d s\u00f6ylemi piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n morali bozdu. Borsadaki sat\u0131\u015flar beraberinde d\u00f6viz taraf\u0131ndaki harelket derken baz\u0131 teknik seviyeler k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-554477212\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hal b\u00f6yle olunca da \u201cstop loss zarar durdurma\u201d i\u015flemleri devreye girdi. Bu i\u015fleml\u015fer de hareketlerin \u201cboyutlar\u0131n\u0131\u201d artt\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bundan sonra olacaklar temel dinamiklerden \u00e7ok teknik seviyelerle ilgili. Zira temel veriler bu hareketi ba\u015flatanlard\u0131. Nerede bitebilece\u011fine dair tahminler i\u00e7in yine teknik analize ba\u015fvurmak gerekiyor.Ne diyor teknik analizler?<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nce yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere dolar\/TL&#8230; 1.6570\u2019in yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 1.7350\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131! \u015eimdi ilk hedef buras\u0131. \u201c1 dolar+1 euro\u201d sepetinde de 4.00 seviyesi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.0550 ile a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131! Yeni hedef 4.1050 seviyesi. Unutmadan, ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 sorunu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclecek olur ise bu durum dolara yar\u0131yacak ve euro\/TL de yukar\u0131daki\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>sepet<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0tahminin \u201ci\u00e7ine s\u0131\u011facakt\u0131r\u201d!<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l \u00f6nemli hareketlerden biri \u0130MKB\u2019de ya\u015fan\u0131yor. TL baz\u0131nda 2-3 Mart tarihlerinde 59.207 ile 59.424 aras\u0131ndaki \u201cbo\u015flu\u011fun\u201d kapanmas\u0131 an meselesi. Sonras\u0131nda 58 binler&#8230; Ama as\u0131l hareket dolar\/cent baz\u0131nda ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Cent baz\u0131nda yukar\u0131daki bo\u015fluk kapand\u0131 bile! \u015eimdi s\u0131rada bir ka\u00e7 kez dile getirdi\u011fim 3.20 cent seviyesi var! Bence bu hafta olmasa bile bir ka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fclecek bu seviye&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1137336071\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu seviyeye gelindi\u011finde pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131r m\u0131? Oraya ini\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na bakmak gerek. \u00c7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 inilmi\u015fse mutlaka bir d\u00fczeltme gelir denebilir. Ama yava\u015f yava\u015f, herkes \u201cmaliyetlenerek\u201d bu seviyelere inilmi\u015fse o zaman tekrar de\u011ferlendirmekte fayda var. Ben de \u00e7ok uzaklarda de\u011filsem mutlaka bu konuda bir ka\u00e7 yaz\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015f olurum&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1.70 TL s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayanan dolar kurunda y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Dolar\/TL\u2019de 1.6570\u2019in yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 1.7350\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eimdi ilk hedef buras\u0131. \u201c1 dolar+1 euro\u201d sepetinde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3110"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3110\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}